1. Reunification of Taiwan and the experiences of Hong Kong hand over
Seemingly, China has determined to establish an overwhelming military power sufficient to take Taiwan by force and, after that, to urge Taiwan and the U.S. to accept the reunification.
Until recently, China had been making efforts to reunify Taiwan peacefully through economic exchange, human interactions and political dialogue.
However, in 2016, Tsai Ing-wen who is pro-independence was elected as a president of Taiwan and has been promoting tendency toward independence. Especially after 2019 Hong Kong turmoil caused by radical anti-government demonstrations (possibly engineered by CIA and MI6 ), the majority of Taiwan people have come to shun the reunification with China. So, Tsai Ing-wen was reelected as a president in 2020.
[Tsai Ing-wen after her reelection in 2020]
[Violent demonstration by radical anti-government protesters in Hong Kong]
The U.S. has started to treat Taiwan as if it were an independent country, and been providing some sophisticated weapons. Tsai Ing-wen has even publicly boasted that Taiwan is already an virtually independent country.
Under these circumstances, China seems to have changed her previous policy and determined to establish an overwhelming military power sufficient to take Taiwan by force and, after that, to urge Taiwan and the U.S. to accept the reunification.
This new hard line policy seems to be based upon China's experiences during her negotiation with Britain over the handover of Hong Kong of 1997.
Back in 1980s, when China and Britain negotiated on the handover of Hong Kong, Britain's intention was that they would return only so-called New Territories over which Britain had a 99-year lease that was to be expired in 1997. On the other hand, China insisted that not only New Territories but entire Kowloon Peninsula and Hong Kong Island should be handed over.
Britain indicated that, Kowloon Peninsula and Hong Kong Island were legally ceded to Britain by the Treaty of Nanking and the Convention of Peking, and therefore did not have to be handed over under the established international laws.
China asserted that the Treaty of Nanking and the Convention of Peking were signed as a result of military aggression by Anglo-French military forces in the Opium War and the Arrow War, and that entire Kowloon Peninsula and Hong Kong Island should be handed over.
[The negotiation between Deng Xiaoping and Margaret Thatcher in 1984]
And, finally in 1984, during the negotiation in Beijing, Deng Xiaoping, Chairman of the Central Advisory Commission, warned to Margaret Thatcher, Prime Minister of Britain, saying, "the Chinese could walk in and take Hong Kong later today if they wanted to", suggesting the use of military forces and the stoppage of water supply unless Britain accepted the hand over of Kowloon Peninsula and Hong Kong Island.
Faced with the reality that British military forces' resistance is impossible against the overwhelming Chinese military forces, Thatcher had no choice but accepted the hand over of Kowloon Peninsula and Hong Kong Island.
This negotiation process and Britain's reactions in the hand over of Hong Kong would be the basis of China's decision making in the reunification of Taiwan. That is, the Western countries such as Britain and the U.S. would never accept a demand on national sovereignty and territorial integrity unless they are threatened and coerced by overwhelming military forces even if the demand is legitimate.
Taiwan is another territory which was ceded by foreign military aggression. It was ceded to Imperial Japan as a result of Japanese military aggression in the First Sino-Japanese War of 1984-1985.
After the Japan's defeat in the Second World War, a civil war broke out between the government of the Republic of China and the Chinese Communist Party. In 1949, when the People's Republic of China was established by the victorious Chinese Communist Party, Chiang Kai-shek, protege of the U.S, and his government of the Republic of China fled to Taiwan. Since then, the U.S. has been supporting Taiwan economically and militarily, preventing the reunification of Taiwan.
Based upon the experiences during negotiations of the hand over of Hong Kong, China seems to have determined to establish an overwhelming military power sufficient to take Taiwan by force and, after that, to urge Taiwan and the U.S. to accept the reunification.
2. China's overwhelming military forces and a negotiation for the reunification
Currently, China is establishing an overwhelming military power sufficient to take Taiwan by force.
China has already deployed more than 1000 ballistic missiles that have the East China Sea, the South China Sea and Japan within their range. In addition, China has started deployment of hypersonic glide vehicles and hypersonic anti-ship cruise missiles. So, US surface warships such as aircraft carriers are not able to come close to Taiwan during a conflict.
[China's mobile ballistic missile DF-21]
[China's hypersonic anti-ship cruise missile DF-100]
If China destroys US air force bases especially in Japan using ballistic missiles, the air supremacy over Taiwan would be held by China.
China is building assault carriers to be used for a landing operation at a high pace. China build assault carriers in 2019, 2020 and 2021 and plans to mass produce them continuously. China already has 8 landing platform docks and 29 landing ship tanks.
[China's Type 075 assault carrier]
China is building aircraft carriers, destroyers and frigates. The number of China's warships is more than 300 and has exceeded that of the U.S. China has almost as many submarines as the U.S.
China is said to have a capability to lay 5000 - 7000 sea mines around Taiwan within a week, which will hamper Taiwan's maritime transportation. Taiwan stores only one month strategic reserve of oil.
In a landing operation, patrol vessels, littoral combat ships, corvettes, coast guard ships and maritime militia ships would additionally join, which will double the number of ships of landing forces.
On the other hand, the U.S. needs to deploy its warships not only in East Asia but in the Atlantic Ocean, the Indian Ocean, the Mediterranean, the Arctic Sea and the Middle East area and so on. The dispersion of forces would make the US navy numerically inferior to the Chinese navy.
Thus, China would establish an overwhelming military power sufficient to take Taiwan by force and, after that, give an ultimatum to urge Taiwan and the U.S. to accept the reunification.
In that event, a last minute negotiation would be conducted between China and Taiwan/the U.S. Taiwan and the U.S. would insist that, after the unification, China's military forces should not stay in Taiwan and that Taiwan's legislative, executive and judicial systems should be maintained to preserve Taiwan's freedom and democracy.
China would assert one country two systems and reject other demands of Taiwan and the U.S.
If the negotiation fails, China would embark upon a landing operation toward Taiwan. Both China and Taiwan would suffer a large number of casualties.
3. Nations should work on a peaceful reunification between China and Taiwan
If China starts reunification of Taiwan by force and if Japan tries to defend Taiwan, Japanese islands would become a battle field.
Presently, the U.S. is trying to organize so-called Quad (the U.S., Australia, Japan and India) to contain China and to deploy anti-China intermediate missiles along the first island chain (Japan - Taiwan - the Philippines).
However, regardless of the US efforts to deter China, if a conflict happens, US military bases in Japan would be attacked by Chinese ballistic missiles.
Japan should walk away from Quad and reject the deployment of US intermediate missiles.
To avoid a war, Asian and African nations, especially Japan, should immediately start to work on China and Taiwan so as to let them start a dialogue for the peaceful reunification.
Members of the Japanese Parliament from multiple parties should enact "the China Taiwan Peaceful Reunification Facilitation Act" and mobilize Japanese government, private companies and civil organizations to facilitate a dialogue between China and Taiwan for the peaceful reunification.
4. The possibility of a trap by the U.S. and a tactical nuclear war
Incidentally, there can be seen some indications in the U.S. that show military unpreparedness against China. For example, the commander of US Indo-Pacific Command said before the Senate Armed Services Committee that China was getting an upper hand in East Asia and that China would embark on a reunification of Taiwan by force in less than 6 years.
[Admiral John C. Aquilino, the commander of US Indo-Pacific Command, before the Senate Armed Services Committee]
However, this might be a trap by the U.S.
The U.S. might be pretending to be weak so that China would make the first shot, which would give the U.S. a justification that the U.S. needs to fight back and attack China to defend freedom and democracy of Taiwan.
As mentioned above, during a conflict, US surface warships would not be able to come close to Taiwan because of the fear of being attacked by Chinese ballistic and cruise missiles. However, US submarines can operate without being exposed to the risk of being targeted by Chinese ballistic and cruise missiles.
The U.S. has 4 Ohio class cruise missile submarines each of which can launch as many as 154 cruise missiles. Also, the U.S. has 19 Virginia class attack submarines each of which can launch more than 12 cruise missiles.
Therefore, the U.S. would be able to attack Chinese landing forces by submarine launched cruise missiles. In addition, in order to complement the numerical inferiority, the U.S. may decide to arm cruise missiles with tactical nuclear weapons. If tactical nuclear weapons are used against Chinese landing fleets converging toward the narrow Taiwan Strait, the blast would destroy or even annihilate Chinese fleets. Then, the U.S. would try to destabilize the Chinese government, taking advantage of the turmoil caused by the defeat of Chinese military forces.
But, if the U.S. should use tactical nuclear weapons, China would retaliate with tactical nuclear weapons. China would attack the US military base in Guam island, using ballistic missiles armed with tactical nuclear weapons. If the US military base in Guam island is destroyed, US bases in Japan would be isolated and become difficult to maintain for the future.
Also, knowing the danger of US submarine launched cruise missiles, China may attack US GPS satellites in advance, using killer satellites. In that case, US cruise missiles would be unable to be guided by GPS satellites, and they would be neutralized.
In case US and its allies threaten China's shipping in the Indian Ocean and the Persian Gulf regions, China will counter by forming convoys protected by China's destroyers and frigates.
In whatever way, if a conflict between China and the U.S. breaks out over Taiwan, a large number of casualties would be suffered, and Japan would become a battle field. To avoid a war, Asian and African nations, especially Japan, should immediately start to work on China and Taiwan so as to let them start a dialogue for the peaceful reunification.
Members of the Japanese Parliament from multiple parties should enact "the China Taiwan Peaceful Reunification Facilitation Act" and mobilize Japanese government, private companies and civil organizations to facilitate a dialogue between China and Taiwan for the peaceful reunification.
Taiwan & the U.S. should start negotiation with China regarding on what conditions they would accept Taiwan's reunification with China. Because if China takes Taiwan by force, it would be Taiwan's "unconditional" surrender.
Thank you.
References :
(1) "China drops word 'peaceful' in latest push for Taiwan 'reunification'", May 22nd 2020, Reuters
(2) "‘Taiwan independence’ means war not empty threat: Global Times editorial", January 29th 2021, Global Times
(3) "China launches 3rd Type 075 amphibious assault ship", January 29th 2021, Global Times
Disclaimer: The views and opinions expressed in this article are those of the author and do not reflect nor represent the policy or position of any government, party, or organization.