China seeks for peace. China's military is only for defense purpose.
However, at the same time, China doesn't want to see US military bases existing near her territory forever.
So what China will do? China could, if she wanted to, provoke Japan into a military clash and annihilate Japanese military forces so as to demonstrate the enormous power of Chinese military forces. Let me explain.
【Note1: Following is a hypothetical fictitious scenario of one of possibilities that could happen in Asia and the world in the near future.】
【Note2: This is an alternative version of my previous articles titled "CHINA WILL SUBDUE US MILITARY WITHOUT FIGHTING" and "CHINA WILL SUBDUE US MILITARY WITH FIGHTING"】
1. Japan makes the first shot at the Senkaku islands
In 2022, China's nationalism is boosted by the record number of Olympic medals acquired by her athletes during the Beijing Olympic Winter Games held on 4-20th February.
So, when Quad＋1 forces (the U.S., Australia, Japan and India＋Britain) conduct naval exercises in the Sea of Japan nearby the Senkaku islands in May, it arouses fierce resentment across China.
The Chinese people express strong demand that the Chinese government should make it clear to the world that China has sovereignty over the Senkaku islands.
Accordingly, in early July 2022, the Chinese government officials land on the Senkaku islands to conduct measurement activities, being protected by Chinese coast guard ships armed with cannons.
The hawkish Japanese prime minister, with a strong recommendation by the defense minister, decides to send Japanese coast guard ships armed with cannons to prevent the Chinese activities by force if necessary.
Chinese coast guard ships and Japanese coast guard ships exchange warnings each other and nearly collide many times.
Finally, on July 4th, under the darkness of midnight, a shooting incident happens between Japanese coast guard ships and Chinese coast guard ships. 5 crews of the Chinese coast guard ships are killed in the incident.
The Chinese government releases a video footage of the shooting, and makes an announcement that the first shot was made by the Japanese coast guard ships toward the Chinese coast guard ships which are actually a part of the Chinese military forces under the Chinese domestic law and that, in accordance with international law, the Chinese military forces will take necessary measures to defend China's sovereignty.
The Japanese government ask for military support to the US government, citing the US-Japan Security Treaty. But, the US government indicates that the incident should be investigated by a third-party commission formed by the United Nations and that, until the commission's report becomes available, the US will have to take a neutral position on the incident.
The overwhelming majority of the American people are of the opinion that the US government should not risk lives of US soldiers to defend a tiny rock in the Sea of Japan.
2. China's attack with cruise and ballistic missiles
On July 7th 2022, which happens to be the 85th anniversary of "Marco Polo Bridge Incident (盧溝橋事件)", the Chinese military forces start attacks against the Japanese Self Defense Forces.
Clusters of China's DF-100 hypersonic anti-ship cruise missiles are launched against Japanese Aegis destroyers JS Maya (DDG-179) and JS Haguro (DDG-180) deployed in the Sea of Japan. 20 each of DF-100s are launched against them. As DF-100 flies at the speed of Mach 5, Aegis system doesn't have enough time to calculate and launch interceptors.
JS Maya activates her Aegis system to intercept DF-100s and succeeds in shooting down two DF-100s. However, as many as 18 DF-100s directly hit JS Maya, making the vessel a shamble of blaze. JS Maya's sister ship, JS Haguro is destroyed in the same way, being directly hit by as many as 19 DF-100s.
JS Atago (DDG-177) and JS Ashigara (DDG-178) deployed in the East China Sea are also destroyed by DF-100s
JS Kongō ( DDG-173), JS Chōkai (DDG-176), JS Kirishima (DDG-174) and JS Myōkō (DDG-175) are destroyed too by DF-100s in their home ports of Sasebo, Yokosuka and Maizuru respectively.
Within 5 hours from China's initiating her attacks, all of 8 Aegis destroyers of Japanese Maritime Self Defense Force are lost.
Without Aegis defense coverage, Japanese military ships are easy preys for Chinese cruise missiles. By Chinese conventional subsonic cruise missiles, Japanese aircraft carriers JS Kaga (DDH-184) and JS Izumo (DDH-183) are destroyed in their home ports of Kure and Yokosuka respectively.
At the same time, in order to prevent operations of Japanese Air Self Defense Force, China launches ballistic missiles to Japanese air force bases including Naha, Nyutabaru, Omura and Kanoya air bases among others. China's DF-21 ballistic missiles hit runways of Japanese air force bases, making them inoperable.
3. China's landing operations on Miyakojima island and Amami islands
Also, for the purpose of preventing Japanese missile attacks, Chinese Marine Corps carries out landing operations on Miyakojima island and Amami islands to seize Japan's missile bases there. Having air supremacy over the islands, the Chinese landing operations are accomplished without significant resistance of Japanese forces.
A plan of sending the Japanese Amphibious Rapid Deployment Brigade to take back the islands is discussed by the Japanese government. However, without air cover, ocean transport of the troops is suicidal. The plan of sending the Japanese troops to the islands is abandoned.
Meanwhile, Japanese submarines are put into operations to hamper China's landing operations. However, as China applies acoustic jamming operations using undersea unmanned vehicles, some Japanese submarines' navigation systems are severely disrupted. Being paralyzed, some Japanese submarines collide with undersea mountains or go aground.
Also, due to Chinese anti-submarine warfare operations using sea-mines, missile-torpedoes and helicopter-launched torpedoes, Japanese submarines are under constant serious danger. Faced with the peril of annihilation, Japanese submarines are ordered to withdraw.
4. The Ceasefire Agreement of Shimonoseki and the new normalcy of the Asia-Pacific
More than 90% of the Japanese population demand a peace talk with China. The hawkish cabinet of Japan resigns and a peaceful new cabinet is formed. The new Japanese government signs a ceasefire agreement with China in which Japan admits China's sovereignty over the Senkaku islands.
It is also stipulated in the ceasefire agreement that Chinese military forces will be staying on Miyakojima island and Amami islands for an indefinite period of time until the peace and stability is established in the region, that Japan reconfirms China's One-China policy and that Japan admits China's sovereignty over Taiwan.
As the ceasefire agreement is signed in Shimonoseki, Japan, it's called the Agreement of Shimonoseki after the Treaty of Shimonoseki signed by the Empire of Japan and Qing China in 1895, which ended the First Sino-Japanese War and transferred Taiwan to Japan.
The US Congress, having witnessed that Aegis system is completely useless against China's hypersonic cruise missiles and that aircraft carriers are as easy targets as sitting ducks, comes to make a resolution demanding that the US government should reconsider and abandon its forward deployment strategy.
Accordingly, the US government decides to shift its warships from the Japanese islands to Pearl Harbor and San Diego and redeploy its aircraft to the US mainland, asserting that the overstretch of US military forces should be corrected.
The U.S. abandons its plan to deploy intermediate range missiles to Japan as Japanese missile bases on Miyakojima island and Amami islands are occupied by China's military forces. In other areas of Japan, local people's opposition against the deployment of US missiles is too strong.
US military support virtually having vanished in the East Asia, the Taiwan government has no choice but accepts China's one country two systems.
Taiwan becomes the 35th Chinese province. Chinese military vessels and aircraft start to station in Taiwan. China's military projection extends to the Western and South Pacific.
Deeply disappointed by the US non-intervention attitude and recognizing that China becomes responsible to the peace and stability of the East Asia and the Western and South Pacific, Japan decides to withdraw from the US-Japan Security Treaty. Japan declares to be an armed neutrality nation and joins the newly established Asian collective security organization.
Thank you.
Disclaimer: The views and opinions expressed in this article are those of the author and do not reflect nor represent the policy or position of any government, party, or organization.
However, at the same time, China doesn't want to see US military bases existing near her territory forever.
So what China will do? China could, if she wanted to, provoke Japan into a military clash and annihilate Japanese military forces so as to demonstrate the enormous power of Chinese military forces. Let me explain.
【Note1: Following is a hypothetical fictitious scenario of one of possibilities that could happen in Asia and the world in the near future.】
【Note2: This is an alternative version of my previous articles titled "CHINA WILL SUBDUE US MILITARY WITHOUT FIGHTING" and "CHINA WILL SUBDUE US MILITARY WITH FIGHTING"】
1. Japan makes the first shot at the Senkaku islands
In 2022, China's nationalism is boosted by the record number of Olympic medals acquired by her athletes during the Beijing Olympic Winter Games held on 4-20th February.
So, when Quad＋1 forces (the U.S., Australia, Japan and India＋Britain) conduct naval exercises in the Sea of Japan nearby the Senkaku islands in May, it arouses fierce resentment across China.
The Chinese people express strong demand that the Chinese government should make it clear to the world that China has sovereignty over the Senkaku islands.
Accordingly, in early July 2022, the Chinese government officials land on the Senkaku islands to conduct measurement activities, being protected by Chinese coast guard ships armed with cannons.
The hawkish Japanese prime minister, with a strong recommendation by the defense minister, decides to send Japanese coast guard ships armed with cannons to prevent the Chinese activities by force if necessary.
Chinese coast guard ships and Japanese coast guard ships exchange warnings each other and nearly collide many times.
Finally, on July 4th, under the darkness of midnight, a shooting incident happens between Japanese coast guard ships and Chinese coast guard ships. 5 crews of the Chinese coast guard ships are killed in the incident.
The Chinese government releases a video footage of the shooting, and makes an announcement that the first shot was made by the Japanese coast guard ships toward the Chinese coast guard ships which are actually a part of the Chinese military forces under the Chinese domestic law and that, in accordance with international law, the Chinese military forces will take necessary measures to defend China's sovereignty.
The Japanese government ask for military support to the US government, citing the US-Japan Security Treaty. But, the US government indicates that the incident should be investigated by a third-party commission formed by the United Nations and that, until the commission's report becomes available, the US will have to take a neutral position on the incident.
The overwhelming majority of the American people are of the opinion that the US government should not risk lives of US soldiers to defend a tiny rock in the Sea of Japan.
2. China's attack with cruise and ballistic missiles
On July 7th 2022, which happens to be the 85th anniversary of "Marco Polo Bridge Incident (盧溝橋事件)", the Chinese military forces start attacks against the Japanese Self Defense Forces.
Clusters of China's DF-100 hypersonic anti-ship cruise missiles are launched against Japanese Aegis destroyers JS Maya (DDG-179) and JS Haguro (DDG-180) deployed in the Sea of Japan. 20 each of DF-100s are launched against them. As DF-100 flies at the speed of Mach 5, Aegis system doesn't have enough time to calculate and launch interceptors.
JS Maya activates her Aegis system to intercept DF-100s and succeeds in shooting down two DF-100s. However, as many as 18 DF-100s directly hit JS Maya, making the vessel a shamble of blaze. JS Maya's sister ship, JS Haguro is destroyed in the same way, being directly hit by as many as 19 DF-100s.
JS Atago (DDG-177) and JS Ashigara (DDG-178) deployed in the East China Sea are also destroyed by DF-100s
JS Kongō ( DDG-173), JS Chōkai (DDG-176), JS Kirishima (DDG-174) and JS Myōkō (DDG-175) are destroyed too by DF-100s in their home ports of Sasebo, Yokosuka and Maizuru respectively.
Within 5 hours from China's initiating her attacks, all of 8 Aegis destroyers of Japanese Maritime Self Defense Force are lost.
Without Aegis defense coverage, Japanese military ships are easy preys for Chinese cruise missiles. By Chinese conventional subsonic cruise missiles, Japanese aircraft carriers JS Kaga (DDH-184) and JS Izumo (DDH-183) are destroyed in their home ports of Kure and Yokosuka respectively.
At the same time, in order to prevent operations of Japanese Air Self Defense Force, China launches ballistic missiles to Japanese air force bases including Naha, Nyutabaru, Omura and Kanoya air bases among others. China's DF-21 ballistic missiles hit runways of Japanese air force bases, making them inoperable.
3. China's landing operations on Miyakojima island and Amami islands
Also, for the purpose of preventing Japanese missile attacks, Chinese Marine Corps carries out landing operations on Miyakojima island and Amami islands to seize Japan's missile bases there. Having air supremacy over the islands, the Chinese landing operations are accomplished without significant resistance of Japanese forces.
A plan of sending the Japanese Amphibious Rapid Deployment Brigade to take back the islands is discussed by the Japanese government. However, without air cover, ocean transport of the troops is suicidal. The plan of sending the Japanese troops to the islands is abandoned.
Meanwhile, Japanese submarines are put into operations to hamper China's landing operations. However, as China applies acoustic jamming operations using undersea unmanned vehicles, some Japanese submarines' navigation systems are severely disrupted. Being paralyzed, some Japanese submarines collide with undersea mountains or go aground.
Also, due to Chinese anti-submarine warfare operations using sea-mines, missile-torpedoes and helicopter-launched torpedoes, Japanese submarines are under constant serious danger. Faced with the peril of annihilation, Japanese submarines are ordered to withdraw.
4. The Ceasefire Agreement of Shimonoseki and the new normalcy of the Asia-Pacific
More than 90% of the Japanese population demand a peace talk with China. The hawkish cabinet of Japan resigns and a peaceful new cabinet is formed. The new Japanese government signs a ceasefire agreement with China in which Japan admits China's sovereignty over the Senkaku islands.
It is also stipulated in the ceasefire agreement that Chinese military forces will be staying on Miyakojima island and Amami islands for an indefinite period of time until the peace and stability is established in the region, that Japan reconfirms China's One-China policy and that Japan admits China's sovereignty over Taiwan.
As the ceasefire agreement is signed in Shimonoseki, Japan, it's called the Agreement of Shimonoseki after the Treaty of Shimonoseki signed by the Empire of Japan and Qing China in 1895, which ended the First Sino-Japanese War and transferred Taiwan to Japan.
The US Congress, having witnessed that Aegis system is completely useless against China's hypersonic cruise missiles and that aircraft carriers are as easy targets as sitting ducks, comes to make a resolution demanding that the US government should reconsider and abandon its forward deployment strategy.
Accordingly, the US government decides to shift its warships from the Japanese islands to Pearl Harbor and San Diego and redeploy its aircraft to the US mainland, asserting that the overstretch of US military forces should be corrected.
The U.S. abandons its plan to deploy intermediate range missiles to Japan as Japanese missile bases on Miyakojima island and Amami islands are occupied by China's military forces. In other areas of Japan, local people's opposition against the deployment of US missiles is too strong.
US military support virtually having vanished in the East Asia, the Taiwan government has no choice but accepts China's one country two systems.
Taiwan becomes the 35th Chinese province. Chinese military vessels and aircraft start to station in Taiwan. China's military projection extends to the Western and South Pacific.
Deeply disappointed by the US non-intervention attitude and recognizing that China becomes responsible to the peace and stability of the East Asia and the Western and South Pacific, Japan decides to withdraw from the US-Japan Security Treaty. Japan declares to be an armed neutrality nation and joins the newly established Asian collective security organization.
Thank you.
Disclaimer: The views and opinions expressed in this article are those of the author and do not reflect nor represent the policy or position of any government, party, or organization.