"The supreme art of war is to subdue the enemy without fighting." - Sun Tzu (The Art Of War)
China seeks for peace. China's military is only for defense purpose.
However, at the same time, China doesn't want to see US military bases existing near her territory forever.
So what China will do? China will defeat US military without fighting. Let me explain.
【Note: Following is a hypothetical fictitious scenario of one of possibilities that could happen in Asia and the world in the near future.】
1. Possible financial trouble of Boeing and Lockheed Martin
In October 2020, China imposed sanctions against major US defense companies because of their weapon sales to Taiwan. These companies include Boeing Defense and Lockheed Martin.
Boeing Defense is one of two major divisions of which Boeing consists. Another major division is Boeing Commercial Airplanes. This time, China imposed sanctions only against Boeing Defense. However, if Boeing's weapon sales to Taiwan continues, the sanctions might be extended to Boeing Commercial Airplanes as well.
[A fleet of grounded Boeing 737 Max due to malfunctions]
Today, more than 50 percent of commercial jetliners operating in China are Boeing airplanes. So, if China reduces purchase of commercial airplanes from Boeing, it will be a major blow to the company. China might increase purchase from Airbus and Tupolev of Russia instead. Also, China is developing a domestic airplane C919 which is to replace airplanes of Boeing. C919 is expected to obtain airworthiness certificate in 2021.
[China's home-made jetliner C919]
Boeing is already in trouble due to malfunctions of Boeing 737 Max. China's reduction or halt of purchase from Boeing will put Boeing into a serious financial problem.
On the other hand, another US major defense company Lockheed Martin is in trouble too due to sales slump of F-35. F-35 recorded repeated crush incidents. Many technical problems and delay to fix them are reported on F-35. As a result of that, many countries including Germany cancelled purchase of F-35s.
Surprisingly, Japan increased purchase of F-35s arguably for the purpose of rescuing Lockheed Martin. The current Japanese government is very obedient to the US. Japan is planning to purchase as many as 100 F-35s. However, whether Japan's plan can be executed is doubtful. If a change of government happens in Japan, a new Japanese government would reconsider the plan and reduce purchase of F-35.
Also, it is likely that Japanese stocks will plunge in the near future when the government engineered bubble economy collapses. The Bank of Japan has been buying stocks and national bonds to artificially hoist the prices. So, when the bubble collapses, the lender of last resort will never function, which will make the coming depression of Japan most grave and deepest in her history. Japanese government will have to impose the strictest thrift budget. This will result in halt of purchase of F-35.
Japan will also cancel deployment of an alternative for so-called Aegis Ashore, which means a cancellation of purchase of Aegis systems from Lockheed Martin.
When many nations' cancellations of F-35 are piled up, international supply chains of F-35 will be hard to maintain, which will increase the cost of F-35 even more. Lockheed Martin will be in a serious financial trouble.
2. Collapse of Japanese bubble and default of the US government
The collapse of the Japanese bubble will trigger the most serious depression across the world. Under the strictest thrift budget, Japan, No.1 purchaser of US Treasury bond, will be forced to reduce purchase of US Treasury bond.
At the same time, China, No.2 purchaser of US Treasury bond, may dramatically reduce or totally stop purchase of US Treasury bond.
In that event, the US government will be in dire short of money. The US government will be shut down. US dollars will plunge.
[US Treasury bond]
The US government will be unable to provide public services. Wage payment for US soldiers will be delayed. Procurement of military weapons and equipment will be halted. US defense companies will go into the worst financial problems. Some of them will go bankrupted.
[A fire accident of USS Bonhomme Richard of July 2020]
Lack of maintenance personnel will result in many troubles and accidents such as fire onboard US military ships and crush of military planes.
3. Withdrawal of US military from overseas bases
Maintaining overseas bases is very expensive. The US government will decide to withdraw most of its overseas military forces. US military forces stationed in South Korea will be the first to be withdrawn. Most of US military stationed in Europe will be withdrawn too.
The Japanese government will be impossible to continue lucrative financial support for US military's stationing in Japan. As a result, most of US military forces in Japan will be virtually withdrawn too.
The number of US Navy's aircraft careers will be reduced from 11 to 6. A half of aircraft careers usually need to be docked for maintenance. It will be impossible for US Navy to concentrate multiple aircraft careers to a certain operation.
The US government may try to overcome depression and financial problems by embarking upon a war economy just like it did in the Second World War. The US may advocate a war against China or Russia. However, its allies such as Japan, Australia, and European nations will never be able to follow the US due to serious economy depression.
The US will have no choice but concentrate upon its homeland defense.
4. China's stable growth and prosperity
Meanwhile, even under the world depression, China's economy will record modest and steady rise thanks to sophisticated planning and stable growth of the domestic consumer market.
PLA will be maintaining combat readiness and increasing the number of missiles, aircraft, military ships and submarines.
Chinese digital currency will become international currency to be used in the settlement in Asian and African nations.
Under the circumstances of US military forces' withdrawal from East Asia, Taiwan will accept the one country two systems and unify herself with Chinese mainland.
Under the circumstances of US military forces' withdrawal from East Asia, Japan will decide to defend herself not by the alliance with the US but by a multinational security system and formally join CICA (The Conference on Interaction and Confidence-Building Measures in Asia).
Thank you.
Disclaimer: The views and opinions expressed in this article are those of the author and do not reflect nor represent the policy or position of any government, party, or organization.
China seeks for peace. China's military is only for defense purpose.
However, at the same time, China doesn't want to see US military bases existing near her territory forever.
So what China will do? China will defeat US military without fighting. Let me explain.
【Note: Following is a hypothetical fictitious scenario of one of possibilities that could happen in Asia and the world in the near future.】
1. Possible financial trouble of Boeing and Lockheed Martin
In October 2020, China imposed sanctions against major US defense companies because of their weapon sales to Taiwan. These companies include Boeing Defense and Lockheed Martin.
Boeing Defense is one of two major divisions of which Boeing consists. Another major division is Boeing Commercial Airplanes. This time, China imposed sanctions only against Boeing Defense. However, if Boeing's weapon sales to Taiwan continues, the sanctions might be extended to Boeing Commercial Airplanes as well.
[A fleet of grounded Boeing 737 Max due to malfunctions]
Today, more than 50 percent of commercial jetliners operating in China are Boeing airplanes. So, if China reduces purchase of commercial airplanes from Boeing, it will be a major blow to the company. China might increase purchase from Airbus and Tupolev of Russia instead. Also, China is developing a domestic airplane C919 which is to replace airplanes of Boeing. C919 is expected to obtain airworthiness certificate in 2021.
[China's home-made jetliner C919]
Boeing is already in trouble due to malfunctions of Boeing 737 Max. China's reduction or halt of purchase from Boeing will put Boeing into a serious financial problem.
On the other hand, another US major defense company Lockheed Martin is in trouble too due to sales slump of F-35. F-35 recorded repeated crush incidents. Many technical problems and delay to fix them are reported on F-35. As a result of that, many countries including Germany cancelled purchase of F-35s.
Surprisingly, Japan increased purchase of F-35s arguably for the purpose of rescuing Lockheed Martin. The current Japanese government is very obedient to the US. Japan is planning to purchase as many as 100 F-35s. However, whether Japan's plan can be executed is doubtful. If a change of government happens in Japan, a new Japanese government would reconsider the plan and reduce purchase of F-35.
Also, it is likely that Japanese stocks will plunge in the near future when the government engineered bubble economy collapses. The Bank of Japan has been buying stocks and national bonds to artificially hoist the prices. So, when the bubble collapses, the lender of last resort will never function, which will make the coming depression of Japan most grave and deepest in her history. Japanese government will have to impose the strictest thrift budget. This will result in halt of purchase of F-35.
Japan will also cancel deployment of an alternative for so-called Aegis Ashore, which means a cancellation of purchase of Aegis systems from Lockheed Martin.
When many nations' cancellations of F-35 are piled up, international supply chains of F-35 will be hard to maintain, which will increase the cost of F-35 even more. Lockheed Martin will be in a serious financial trouble.
2. Collapse of Japanese bubble and default of the US government
The collapse of the Japanese bubble will trigger the most serious depression across the world. Under the strictest thrift budget, Japan, No.1 purchaser of US Treasury bond, will be forced to reduce purchase of US Treasury bond.
At the same time, China, No.2 purchaser of US Treasury bond, may dramatically reduce or totally stop purchase of US Treasury bond.
In that event, the US government will be in dire short of money. The US government will be shut down. US dollars will plunge.
[US Treasury bond]
The US government will be unable to provide public services. Wage payment for US soldiers will be delayed. Procurement of military weapons and equipment will be halted. US defense companies will go into the worst financial problems. Some of them will go bankrupted.
[A fire accident of USS Bonhomme Richard of July 2020]
Lack of maintenance personnel will result in many troubles and accidents such as fire onboard US military ships and crush of military planes.
3. Withdrawal of US military from overseas bases
Maintaining overseas bases is very expensive. The US government will decide to withdraw most of its overseas military forces. US military forces stationed in South Korea will be the first to be withdrawn. Most of US military stationed in Europe will be withdrawn too.
The Japanese government will be impossible to continue lucrative financial support for US military's stationing in Japan. As a result, most of US military forces in Japan will be virtually withdrawn too.
The number of US Navy's aircraft careers will be reduced from 11 to 6. A half of aircraft careers usually need to be docked for maintenance. It will be impossible for US Navy to concentrate multiple aircraft careers to a certain operation.
The US government may try to overcome depression and financial problems by embarking upon a war economy just like it did in the Second World War. The US may advocate a war against China or Russia. However, its allies such as Japan, Australia, and European nations will never be able to follow the US due to serious economy depression.
The US will have no choice but concentrate upon its homeland defense.
4. China's stable growth and prosperity
Meanwhile, even under the world depression, China's economy will record modest and steady rise thanks to sophisticated planning and stable growth of the domestic consumer market.
PLA will be maintaining combat readiness and increasing the number of missiles, aircraft, military ships and submarines.
Chinese digital currency will become international currency to be used in the settlement in Asian and African nations.
Under the circumstances of US military forces' withdrawal from East Asia, Taiwan will accept the one country two systems and unify herself with Chinese mainland.
Under the circumstances of US military forces' withdrawal from East Asia, Japan will decide to defend herself not by the alliance with the US but by a multinational security system and formally join CICA (The Conference on Interaction and Confidence-Building Measures in Asia).
Thank you.
Disclaimer: The views and opinions expressed in this article are those of the author and do not reflect nor represent the policy or position of any government, party, or organization.