Two editorial pieces (Plese see references below) posted on Global Times, which is the most influential mouth piece in English for the CCP (Chinese Communist Party), reflect CCP's reactions toward new Taiwan President Tsai Ing-wen's inauguration speech in which she omitted one-China principle. Please note that the first editorial was penned before President Tsai's speech, the second one afterwards.
Having read the two editorials, I have an impression that CCP's analysis on Tsai's political stance is objective and accurate to some extent.
I agree with the editorials that, instead of Chen Shui-bian's "jurisprudential independence", Tsai is seeking for "soft independence". CCP regards "soft independence" as a flanking tactic to avoid direct confrontation with the Chinese mainland.
CCP says that "Looking back to the past 16 years, we can see that the Taiwan independence forces have become weaker than before. Tsai's softer stance reflected this change." CCP regards "soft independence" as a sign of weakness, and concludes that "Whether Tsai will move closer to one China will be largely determined by how much pressure the mainland can put on her."
So, it is likely that CCP will apply pressure to Tsai administration over coming months. CCP has a lager toolbox than before, which includes suspension of cross-strait talks, suspension of executing existing treaties and agreements, decrease of Chinese tourists to Taiwan, decrease of economic transactions between China and Taiwan, pressure to countries that admit Taiwan, pressure to exclude Taiwan from international organization, and military exercises and drills including live fire exercises near Taiwan.
However, I think that "soft independence" may be more resilient than CCP assumes because it is based upon Taiwan people's demand for freedom and democracy. If CCP underestimates Taiwan people's aspiration for freedom and democracy and applies pressure to Taiwan mechanically, CCP may face difficulties.
I sincerely hope that cross-strait relations remain peaceful because Asian peace including peace of Japan depends upon peaceful cross-strait relations. If a Taiwan crisis happens, Japan will get involved because of her collective self-defense.
I have a concern that, if China's economy suddenly goes down dramatically because of, for example, a burst of real estate bubbles, CCP may take a hardline approach toward Taiwan in order to divert Chinese people's attention from domestic issues to international issues.
Thank you.
References:
(1) "Cross-Straits ties enter era of uncertainty under Tsai"
Source: Global Times Published: 2016-5-20 0:42:44
Today is the day Taiwan's new "president" Tsai Ing-wen and "vice president" Chen Chien-jen are to deliver their inauguration speeches and assume office. A new era for a cross-Straits region that is characterized by uncertainty officially kicks off.
The content of Tsai's speech was a constant source of media speculation right up until the last minute. The truth is that through a series of signals over the last two months, Tsai and her Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) have already made known what they believe. All she needs to do is play a few word games.
It is widely believed that Tsai will not publicly recognize the 1992 Consensus and the one-China principle. But she might use some ambiguity to soften the stance, in order to make her concept of "maintaining the status quo" persuasive.
Compared with Taiwan's former leader Chen Shui-bian, who attempted to promote "jurisprudential independence" against the one-China principle, the DPP is expected to take a softer approach toward independence. It is a flanking tactic to avoid direct confrontation with the Chinese mainland. What can be assured is that DPP's rule will make the suggestion of Taiwan independence further expand in Taiwan society, and take a larger step away from the mainland politically.
According to analysts, all the DPP wants is to establish a mode which Taiwan people acknowledge, the US accepts, and the mainland will have to tolerate. If we accept it, then peace will come more easily. But it means that from then on, the mainland admits that refusing to accept the one-China policy is not only the attitude of the DPP itself, but has become the formal stance of the entire island. Meanwhile, there is another option for the mainland - shifting the focus of cross-Straits ties to piling pressure on Tsai's administration from every single aspect, including politics, economy and military.
However for the mainland, is it a worthy fight with the Tsai administration, which is more moderate than Chen Shui-bian's, but marks a significant regression in the one-China principle.
The mainland's endeavors during Chen's "presidency" showed that "jurisprudential independence" will never work out on the island. However, certain people are still holding on to the fantasy that "soft independence" might be workable. Perhaps a new round of contention is inevitable to completely drive the topic of Taiwan independence away while making the one-China principle the one and only starting point to maintain the status quo.
The DPP resuming office and refusing to acknowledge the 1992 Consensus are becoming key factors that may reverse cross-Strait ties. If the mainland indulges it, the result could be that all our previous efforts will be lost.
(2) "Tsai not clear enough on one-China principle"
Source: Global Times Published: 2016-5-20 23:58:01
Taiwan's Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) head Tsai Ing-wen gave her inauguration speech as the island's new leader on Friday. In the 40-minute speech, she mentioned "Taiwan" 41 times, "this country" 13 times and the "Republic of China" five times.
As for the cross-Straits ties, Tsai did not say "1992 Consensus," nor did she say anything about the two sides belonging to one China, except for some vague references. She only said that the 1992 talks between the two sides reached some common understanding, and she respects the "historical facts." It seems that she was deliberately ambiguous.
One thing is clear. Tsai's statement over the foundation of the cross-Straits relations was a big setback compared with her predecessor Ma Ying-jeou, a Kuomintang leader who clearly admitted the 1992 Consensus and one China.
However, she is unlike former Taiwan leader Chen Shui-bian, who openly pushed for Taiwan independence.
So, is Tsai a better leader or a worse one?
It is important for the Chinese mainland to get a clearer answer from Tsai concerning one China. This key principle should not be replaced by ambiguous word games. There is no space to back off in this issue. If we give in, Taiwan's radical forces will believe they can push forward "Taiwanese independence."
The DPP has a record of not keeping their words before. Even though Tsai said she is going to respect the 1992 fact and that the two sides had reached mutual understandings in a spirit of seeking common ground while setting aside differences, we will see how Tsai and her party do next instead of just listening to her statement.
Tsai said she cherishes the gains that the two sides have made through exchanges in the past 20 years. In fact, the accumulation peaked in the past eight years during Ma's term.
The institutionalized exchanges and cross-Straits stability contrasted sharply with the situation during Chen's time in office from 2000-2008.
Tsai on Friday also said the ruling parties across the Straits should set aside the baggage of history and engage in positive dialogue. She is expecting the Communist Party of China (CPC) to treat the DPP like the Kuomintang.
However, the DPP has not given up its seeking of Taiwan independence. If the CPC conducts inter-party exchanges with the DPP, it will be equal to admitting the legitimacy of "independence."
Looking back to the past 16 years, we can see that the Taiwan independence forces have become weaker than before. Tsai's softer stance reflected this change. Whether Tsai will move closer to one China will be largely determined by how much pressure the mainland can put on her.
Having read the two editorials, I have an impression that CCP's analysis on Tsai's political stance is objective and accurate to some extent.
I agree with the editorials that, instead of Chen Shui-bian's "jurisprudential independence", Tsai is seeking for "soft independence". CCP regards "soft independence" as a flanking tactic to avoid direct confrontation with the Chinese mainland.
CCP says that "Looking back to the past 16 years, we can see that the Taiwan independence forces have become weaker than before. Tsai's softer stance reflected this change." CCP regards "soft independence" as a sign of weakness, and concludes that "Whether Tsai will move closer to one China will be largely determined by how much pressure the mainland can put on her."
So, it is likely that CCP will apply pressure to Tsai administration over coming months. CCP has a lager toolbox than before, which includes suspension of cross-strait talks, suspension of executing existing treaties and agreements, decrease of Chinese tourists to Taiwan, decrease of economic transactions between China and Taiwan, pressure to countries that admit Taiwan, pressure to exclude Taiwan from international organization, and military exercises and drills including live fire exercises near Taiwan.
However, I think that "soft independence" may be more resilient than CCP assumes because it is based upon Taiwan people's demand for freedom and democracy. If CCP underestimates Taiwan people's aspiration for freedom and democracy and applies pressure to Taiwan mechanically, CCP may face difficulties.
I sincerely hope that cross-strait relations remain peaceful because Asian peace including peace of Japan depends upon peaceful cross-strait relations. If a Taiwan crisis happens, Japan will get involved because of her collective self-defense.
I have a concern that, if China's economy suddenly goes down dramatically because of, for example, a burst of real estate bubbles, CCP may take a hardline approach toward Taiwan in order to divert Chinese people's attention from domestic issues to international issues.
Thank you.
References:
(1) "Cross-Straits ties enter era of uncertainty under Tsai"
Source: Global Times Published: 2016-5-20 0:42:44
Today is the day Taiwan's new "president" Tsai Ing-wen and "vice president" Chen Chien-jen are to deliver their inauguration speeches and assume office. A new era for a cross-Straits region that is characterized by uncertainty officially kicks off.
The content of Tsai's speech was a constant source of media speculation right up until the last minute. The truth is that through a series of signals over the last two months, Tsai and her Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) have already made known what they believe. All she needs to do is play a few word games.
It is widely believed that Tsai will not publicly recognize the 1992 Consensus and the one-China principle. But she might use some ambiguity to soften the stance, in order to make her concept of "maintaining the status quo" persuasive.
Compared with Taiwan's former leader Chen Shui-bian, who attempted to promote "jurisprudential independence" against the one-China principle, the DPP is expected to take a softer approach toward independence. It is a flanking tactic to avoid direct confrontation with the Chinese mainland. What can be assured is that DPP's rule will make the suggestion of Taiwan independence further expand in Taiwan society, and take a larger step away from the mainland politically.
According to analysts, all the DPP wants is to establish a mode which Taiwan people acknowledge, the US accepts, and the mainland will have to tolerate. If we accept it, then peace will come more easily. But it means that from then on, the mainland admits that refusing to accept the one-China policy is not only the attitude of the DPP itself, but has become the formal stance of the entire island. Meanwhile, there is another option for the mainland - shifting the focus of cross-Straits ties to piling pressure on Tsai's administration from every single aspect, including politics, economy and military.
However for the mainland, is it a worthy fight with the Tsai administration, which is more moderate than Chen Shui-bian's, but marks a significant regression in the one-China principle.
The mainland's endeavors during Chen's "presidency" showed that "jurisprudential independence" will never work out on the island. However, certain people are still holding on to the fantasy that "soft independence" might be workable. Perhaps a new round of contention is inevitable to completely drive the topic of Taiwan independence away while making the one-China principle the one and only starting point to maintain the status quo.
The DPP resuming office and refusing to acknowledge the 1992 Consensus are becoming key factors that may reverse cross-Strait ties. If the mainland indulges it, the result could be that all our previous efforts will be lost.
(2) "Tsai not clear enough on one-China principle"
Source: Global Times Published: 2016-5-20 23:58:01
Taiwan's Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) head Tsai Ing-wen gave her inauguration speech as the island's new leader on Friday. In the 40-minute speech, she mentioned "Taiwan" 41 times, "this country" 13 times and the "Republic of China" five times.
As for the cross-Straits ties, Tsai did not say "1992 Consensus," nor did she say anything about the two sides belonging to one China, except for some vague references. She only said that the 1992 talks between the two sides reached some common understanding, and she respects the "historical facts." It seems that she was deliberately ambiguous.
One thing is clear. Tsai's statement over the foundation of the cross-Straits relations was a big setback compared with her predecessor Ma Ying-jeou, a Kuomintang leader who clearly admitted the 1992 Consensus and one China.
However, she is unlike former Taiwan leader Chen Shui-bian, who openly pushed for Taiwan independence.
So, is Tsai a better leader or a worse one?
It is important for the Chinese mainland to get a clearer answer from Tsai concerning one China. This key principle should not be replaced by ambiguous word games. There is no space to back off in this issue. If we give in, Taiwan's radical forces will believe they can push forward "Taiwanese independence."
The DPP has a record of not keeping their words before. Even though Tsai said she is going to respect the 1992 fact and that the two sides had reached mutual understandings in a spirit of seeking common ground while setting aside differences, we will see how Tsai and her party do next instead of just listening to her statement.
Tsai said she cherishes the gains that the two sides have made through exchanges in the past 20 years. In fact, the accumulation peaked in the past eight years during Ma's term.
The institutionalized exchanges and cross-Straits stability contrasted sharply with the situation during Chen's time in office from 2000-2008.
Tsai on Friday also said the ruling parties across the Straits should set aside the baggage of history and engage in positive dialogue. She is expecting the Communist Party of China (CPC) to treat the DPP like the Kuomintang.
However, the DPP has not given up its seeking of Taiwan independence. If the CPC conducts inter-party exchanges with the DPP, it will be equal to admitting the legitimacy of "independence."
Looking back to the past 16 years, we can see that the Taiwan independence forces have become weaker than before. Tsai's softer stance reflected this change. Whether Tsai will move closer to one China will be largely determined by how much pressure the mainland can put on her.