According to the news reports, the Japanese government of the Democratic Party of Japan (DPJ) came to a conclusion that Japan should phase out of nuclear by 2030s. They put this conclusion into the national government's "Innovative Strategy for Energy and the Environment".
However, the government's energy strategy is to be revised every three years and, since this is just a present government's conclusion, in other words, since it is not codified into a legislation, it can be abandoned if the government is changed after the next general election.
At this very moment, the opposition party, i.e., the Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) is having an intra-party election to elect the next president of their party. There are five candidates who are running for the president. As predicted, all of the candidates pledge that, when they become a ruling party and form a government, they will revise and abandon the DPJ government's energy strategy of the phase out of nuclear. So, if the LDP led government should be formed after the next general election, the phase out of nuclear would be abandoned.
On the other hand, the People's Life First (PLF), which was formed by the 49 members of the Parliament who left the DPJ last July, has already publicly announced that the phase out of nuclear is one of their most fundamental policies.
According to the latest poll, 70% of the Japanese population is for the phase put of nuclear. Therefore, there is a possibility that, after the next general election, the DPJ, PLF, and other parties will be able to form a coalition government based on the common interest of the phase out of nuclear.
One of the obstacles for the DPJ and the PLF to form a coalition is that the DPJ passed the legislation of the increase of value added tax while the PLF is advocating the repeal of the legislation.
In my view, this confrontation can be overcome if they will come to a compromise that the present legislation of the increase of value added tax should be converted into the legislation of "a carbon tax". In this compromise, the DPJ can maintain the tax revenue and the PLF can maintain their pledge to repeal the legislation of the increase of value added tax.
Thank you.
Reference:
(1) "Japan to phase out nuclear power by 2030s", The Telegraph, September 14, 2012
(2) "Governing by Coalitions and Compromise" from Principles of Democracy at the archive of America.gov website produced by the U.S. Department of State's Bureau of International Information Programs
報道によると、民主党政府は、2030年代までに脱原発を実現するという結論に到達しました。政府は、この結論を「革新的エネルギー・環境戦略」に盛り込みました。
しかしながら、政府のエネルギー戦略は、3年ごとに見直されます。また、法律によって明文化されていないため、総選挙の結果、政権交代が起これば、エネルギー戦略が放棄される可能性があります。
現在、野党自民党では、総裁選挙が行なわれています。5名の候補者が立候補していますが、全ての候補者が、2030年代までの脱原発を批判し、民主党政府のエネルギー戦略を見直すと公言しています。したがって、総選挙のあと、自民党を中心とする政権が成立すれば、2030年代までの脱原発は放棄されます。
一方、去る7月に、民主党を離れた49名の国会議員によって結成された、「国民の生活が第一」は、脱原発を主要な政策に掲げています。
最新の世論調査によると、国民の7割は、脱原発を支持しています。そのため、総選挙の結果、脱原発を共通の政策基盤とし、民主党、「国民の生活が第一」、などの政党による、連立政権が成立する可能性があります。
民主党と「国民の生活が第一」が連携する際の障害は、民主党が消費税増税法を成立させたのに対し、「国民の生活が第一」は、消費税増税の撤廃を求めていることです。
この対立は、民主党と「国民の生活が第一」が、現在の消費税増税法を炭素税法へ切り換えるという妥協に到達することによって克服可能と思われます。この妥協によって、民主党は、歳入を確保する一方、「国民の生活が第一」は、消費税増税法を撤廃するという公約を実現出来るからです。
参照資料:
(1) "Japan to phase out nuclear power by 2030s", The Telegraph, September 14, 2012
(2) "Governing by Coalitions and Compromise" from Principles of Democracy at the archive of America.gov website produced by the U.S. Department of State's Bureau of International Information Programs
However, the government's energy strategy is to be revised every three years and, since this is just a present government's conclusion, in other words, since it is not codified into a legislation, it can be abandoned if the government is changed after the next general election.
At this very moment, the opposition party, i.e., the Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) is having an intra-party election to elect the next president of their party. There are five candidates who are running for the president. As predicted, all of the candidates pledge that, when they become a ruling party and form a government, they will revise and abandon the DPJ government's energy strategy of the phase out of nuclear. So, if the LDP led government should be formed after the next general election, the phase out of nuclear would be abandoned.
On the other hand, the People's Life First (PLF), which was formed by the 49 members of the Parliament who left the DPJ last July, has already publicly announced that the phase out of nuclear is one of their most fundamental policies.
According to the latest poll, 70% of the Japanese population is for the phase put of nuclear. Therefore, there is a possibility that, after the next general election, the DPJ, PLF, and other parties will be able to form a coalition government based on the common interest of the phase out of nuclear.
One of the obstacles for the DPJ and the PLF to form a coalition is that the DPJ passed the legislation of the increase of value added tax while the PLF is advocating the repeal of the legislation.
In my view, this confrontation can be overcome if they will come to a compromise that the present legislation of the increase of value added tax should be converted into the legislation of "a carbon tax". In this compromise, the DPJ can maintain the tax revenue and the PLF can maintain their pledge to repeal the legislation of the increase of value added tax.
Thank you.
Reference:
(1) "Japan to phase out nuclear power by 2030s", The Telegraph, September 14, 2012
(2) "Governing by Coalitions and Compromise" from Principles of Democracy at the archive of America.gov website produced by the U.S. Department of State's Bureau of International Information Programs
報道によると、民主党政府は、2030年代までに脱原発を実現するという結論に到達しました。政府は、この結論を「革新的エネルギー・環境戦略」に盛り込みました。
しかしながら、政府のエネルギー戦略は、3年ごとに見直されます。また、法律によって明文化されていないため、総選挙の結果、政権交代が起これば、エネルギー戦略が放棄される可能性があります。
現在、野党自民党では、総裁選挙が行なわれています。5名の候補者が立候補していますが、全ての候補者が、2030年代までの脱原発を批判し、民主党政府のエネルギー戦略を見直すと公言しています。したがって、総選挙のあと、自民党を中心とする政権が成立すれば、2030年代までの脱原発は放棄されます。
一方、去る7月に、民主党を離れた49名の国会議員によって結成された、「国民の生活が第一」は、脱原発を主要な政策に掲げています。
最新の世論調査によると、国民の7割は、脱原発を支持しています。そのため、総選挙の結果、脱原発を共通の政策基盤とし、民主党、「国民の生活が第一」、などの政党による、連立政権が成立する可能性があります。
民主党と「国民の生活が第一」が連携する際の障害は、民主党が消費税増税法を成立させたのに対し、「国民の生活が第一」は、消費税増税の撤廃を求めていることです。
この対立は、民主党と「国民の生活が第一」が、現在の消費税増税法を炭素税法へ切り換えるという妥協に到達することによって克服可能と思われます。この妥協によって、民主党は、歳入を確保する一方、「国民の生活が第一」は、消費税増税法を撤廃するという公約を実現出来るからです。
参照資料:
(1) "Japan to phase out nuclear power by 2030s", The Telegraph, September 14, 2012
(2) "Governing by Coalitions and Compromise" from Principles of Democracy at the archive of America.gov website produced by the U.S. Department of State's Bureau of International Information Programs