ジュリアーニ氏劣勢、ロムニー氏と互角に
Wall Street Journal December 19, 2007 6:41 p.m. ET
共和党選挙戦で、全米をリードしていた前ニューヨーク市長のジュリアーニ氏は劣勢に立っている。ウォールストリート・NBCニュースの世論調査によると、ジュリアーニ氏とロムニーは20%の得票で同点となり、ハックビー氏の17%をやや上回った。過去十数年を通して、同党での選挙戦は、最も激しいものとなっている。
Giuliani lost hisnational lead in the Republican race. A WSJ/NBC News poll shows Giuliani andRomney tied at 20%, slightly ahead of Huckabee at 17%, creating the party'smost competitive nomination fight in decades.
Dollar Rises Against Euro, Pound
Wall Street Journal（翻訳は午後にアップします）
December 19, 2007 4:44 p.m.
NEW YORK -- The euro and U.K. pound came under pressure Wednesday following signals from their respective central banks that U.S. financial market concerns are weighing more on their shores.
The European currencies received an additional blow late in the morning, when Standard & Poor's Ratings Services slashed the credit ratings of troubled bond insurers.
The dollar consequently climbed against the euro to almost a two-month high and rose against the pound to almost a three-month high. The dollar was also stronger against the yen despite a regression of risk appetite. The Dow Jones Industrial Average dropped 25 points on the day, but year-end book-squaring also kept most currency trading within narrow ranges.
Late Wednesday in New York, the euro was at $1.4377 from $1.4402 late Tuesday, while the dollar was at 113.38 yen from 113.45 yen. The euro was at 163.02 yen from 163.39 yen, according to EBS. The U.K. pound was at $1.9971 from $2.0124, and the dollar was quoted at 1.1556 Swiss francs from 1.1526 Swiss francs late Tuesday.
"The bond insurers news put concerns in the U.S. stock market, which created a bit of safe-haven buying," said Robert Fullem, vice president of U.S. corporate currency sales in New York at Bank of Tokyo-Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd.
S&P changed the rating for ACA Financial Guaranty Corp. to junk status from single A. Losing that A rating means the banks that insured securities with ACA Financial have to take back billions in losses from the insurer under the terms of the credit protection they bought from the company. S&P also changed its outlook to negative for several other bond insurers.
The dollar benefits in this environment, when investors sell riskier assets, and Wednesday sterling took the brunt of the sell-off, said Mr. Fullem.
Sterling was especially hurt by the release of minutes from the December Bank of England monetary policy meeting, which showed that the committee voted unanimously to cut rates to 5.5% from 5.75%. The market had expected a 7-2 vote.
In the euro zone, European Central Bank President Jean-Claude Trichet remained relatively hawkish in testimony before the European Parliament's committee for economic and monetary affairs Wednesday.
Mr. Trichet warned that euro-zone price stability is facing upward risks over the medium term, while economic fundamentals remain sound. He reinforced the bank's message that second-round effects -- or the pass-through of high oil and food prices to wages and general consumer prices -- won't be tolerated by the bank. Dismissing calls for an ECB rate cut, Mr. Trichet also stressed that the ECB can't address the source of market tension, but can only try to ensure a smooth functioning of the money market.
The ECB's decision Tuesday to inject a massive 349 billion euros of liquidity into the euro-zone money markets also influenced the euro's modest decline overnight.
The act may have encouraged a sale of euros as banks took advantage of the cheap money to raise funds and then swap them out of the single currency.
The central bank statements raised expectations for interest rate easing, in particular in the U.K., said Fullem.
The latest Ifo Institute survey from Germany released overnight didn't help. It indicated that German business confidence sharply deteriorated in December to its lowest level in almost two years.
There is a growing belief, said Mr. Fullem, "that the dollar may in fact be the ultimate safe haven given the fact that subprime issues are effecting other parts of the world now."
At least the effects on the U.S. have become "partly disclosed," said Mr. Fullem.
To that end, the dollar was able to gain Wednesday against the yen, described often as a safe haven currency, even though the greenback usually declines against Japan's low-yielding currency during times of risk aversion.
Also aiding the buck against the yen are expectations that the Bank of Japan will again keep rates steady. Governor Toshihiko Fukui will make an announcement early Thursday.
Late in the day, the U.S. Treasury Department released its latest semi-annual report to Congress. Once again, it declined to designate China as a currency manipulator, despite increasing pressure to do so from Congress, but reiterated its complaint that the recent appreciation in the Chinese yuan is "too limited and modest."
"Despite the progress that China has made and the continued public commitment to reform, China's exchange rate is undervalued against the U.S. dollar and on a trade-weighted basis, even in the judgment of many domestic observers," the Treasury said.
The report also cited the value of sovereign wealth funds in stabilizing the market because they tend to be long-term investors.
On Thursday, third quarter gross domestic product will be released at 8.30 a.m. EST, the same time as weekly jobless claims.
--Nicholas Hastings in London, Nina Koeppen in Frankfurt and Kathy Shwiff in New York contributed to this report.
Housing Starts in U.S. Probably Fell to 14-Year
By Bob Willis
Dec. 18 (Bloomberg) -- Builders in the U.S. broke ground in November on the fewest homes since 1993, reflecting concern loan restrictions would deepen the slump in sales, economists said before a report today.
Work began on 1.176 million houses at an annual pace, down 4.3 percent from October, according to the median estimate of 70 economists surveyed by Bloomberg News. Permits, an indicator of future construction, fell to a 1.15 million rate from 1.17 million, the survey said.
Some buyers may be having trouble finding financing after a surge in delinquencies and foreclosures reduced access to subprime mortgages. A near-record number of properties on the market and the prospect that prices will keep falling have set the stage for additional weakening in demand and construction.
``Recent credit woes have sent housing on another downswing,'' said John Silvia, chief economist at Wachovia Corp. in Charlotte, North Carolina. ``Inventories are still too high across the country. There are more declines to come.''
Economists' forecasts ranged from annual rates of 1.09 million to 1.25 million. The Commerce Department figures are due at 8:30 a.m. in Washington.
A report yesterday added to evidence that housing is far from recovering as 2007 comes to a close. The National Association of Home Builders/Wells Fargo confidence index held at a record low 19 for a third month in December.
October Sales
Sales of previously owned homes fell in October to their lowest since record-keeping began in 1999, while new-home purchases held near 11-year lows, according to reports last month. Builders had 8.5 months' supply of unsold new homes in stock, compared with an average 6.4 months in 2006.
Toll Brothers Inc., the largest U.S. luxury-home builder, Dec. 6 reported its first quarterly loss in 21 years and said the housing slump is the worst the company has seen in decades.
``Broader concerns about the nation's economy have magnified worries about potential price declines in the housing market,'' Chief Executive Officer Robert Toll said during a conference call earlier this month.
Declines in home construction have reduced growth since the start of 2006 and detracted 1 percentage point in the third quarter. Homebuilding will drop another 25 percent to a trough of less than a 1 million annual pace by the third quarter of 2008, according to a forecast by economists at Lehman Brothers Holdings Inc.
No Immediate Recovery
``The momentum in the housing market still is downward,'' said David Seiders, chief economist at the National Association of Home Builders, at a Dec. 3 conference. ``Housing starts, given the inventory overhang, probably won't turn up until maybe the third quarter of next year.''
The housing recession has worsened since subprime mortgage turmoil in August led to a worldwide credit shortage. In the third quarter, new foreclosures hit an all-time high, the Mortgage Bankers Association said in a report Dec. 6, signaling more homes will be piling up on the market.
Moving to contain the damage, President George W. Bush this month announced a plan to freeze rates for five years on some variable-rate mortgages and provide assistance to as many as 1.2 million homeowners. The proposal wasn't universally embraced.
``At best, it may stop some of the hemorrhaging of the housing market, but it doesn't necessarily turn things around,'' said Nicolas Retsinas, director of Harvard University's Joint Center for Housing Studies in Cambridge, Massachusetts, in an interview this month. ``The fundamental problem with housing is oversupply.''
Extent of Decline
Housing starts in October were 46 percent below their January 2006 peak, while new home sales were down 48 percent from July 2005. Sales and construction are likely to continue falling as long as inventories stay near record levels and prices tumble, economists said.
Home prices in the U.S. fell 4.5 percent in the third quarter from a year earlier, the most in at least two decades, according to the S&P/Case-Shiller home price index. Lehman Brothers is forecasting prices will drop at least 15 percent from peak to trough.
Falling values leave Americans feeling less wealthy and less likely to spend or borrow against home equity. Economists at Morgan Stanley and Merrill Lynch & Co. in New York are among those predicting the U.S. will tip into recession next year.