Sina microblogging really showing signs of recovery it? Yin raw, fushigiboshi no futagohime cosplay user activity level micro-channel public number (jia-zhi-xian) Weibo seems to show signs of recovery, but still not sure. If in the next one to two quarters, the number of active Weibo (especially daily active users) subscriber growth to maintain the current momentum continues to accelerate even and become the trend of events, it can accordingly its valuation Steering single-user value index, then, Sina microblogging valuation will soon enter 60 to $ 9 billion range. Not long ago, I was on the Sina microblogging official account published by Forbes in Forbes, a former colleague star deer Han containing 90 names guilty gear wigs and pictures of the news, the results surprising, the news quickly gained more than 50,000 forwarding More than 8,000 comments, there are more than twenty thousand points praise. For a focus on the serious business of the magazine, this is simply a miracle. But it is also expected: Although Sina microblogging influence appears to have been declining over the past few years, but on the topic of some of the unique influence still not be underestimated. This phenomenon is also present on Twitter, where, in such event lolita dresses the Super Bowl, Twitter's influence even more than Facebook. So, the question is, these unique advantages, can become the cornerstone of Weibo comprehensive revival? For those Sina Weibo IPO last April to buy its stock of the people, this issue is particularly important, Weibo current share price is less than 80% of the listed closing price of, or even earlier this year when it was dropped only about 60% of the time. Now Sina microblogging market capitalization of about $ 3.2 billion, or only about valuation in 2013 when it invested in Alibaba. Before Weibo market, Yin students used to think it was a reasonable valuation of nearly $ 5 billion, and in 2013, Alibaba shares Sina Weibo, in another column I predicted earlier in 2016, its value It may rise to 60 to 90 billion dollars. When in September 2014, the market value of Sina microblogging really was very close to $ 5 billion, but then fall into the abyss. To be honest, I had expected revenues of Sina microblogging may 2015 to achieve $ 300 million, and as a basis for valuation, but in fact in 2014 it reached this level, this is why? The key is not revenue, while in Sina microblogging whether they have continued to generate revenue (and more profitable in the long run) ability to manage growth, which in turn depends primarily on its ability to consolidate and enhance its unique customer value, or the status of the industry. This in my article 'by Ali endorsement, Sina Weibo, or up to three years following the valuation of 60 to $ 9 billion,' it is described: Sina Weibo, its future there are two possibilities: First, through clear The strong position to become a leader such as Twitter and Facebook applications, one is from a declining mainstream applications and maintenance, to guide its development through a variety of possible business strategies, like all networks. Rumors have been taken into account before, Alibaba may continue to overweight shares of Sina Weibo to a controlling position, which could exacerbate the uncertainty of their future. Therefore, it can be assumed optimistic scenario and a pessimistic scenario of 35% and 65% each, the former corresponds to sales ratio could reach 35 times (at the time Facebook and Twitter middle value), while the latter is only about 5 times. To this end, I Sina Weibo IPO when another article, 'Sina Weibo: worth seeing short-term and long-term look at the four Relations', referring to the post-IPO Weibo must face four relationships: with Ali Baba relationship, relationship with investors, and the relationship between Sina and customers (I did not mention the relationship with the government). Establish a positive value every relationship, in fact, all around Weibo unique positioning and values, just like Twitter's value lies in its unique positioning in its pursuit of global information and transparent user words, is irreplaceable, it's worth its influence, like paper media era, 'the New York Times.' Unfortunately, Sina microblogging in a very long period of time after the listing, it is precisely in the verification concerns I mentioned in the previous article: \u0026 ldquo; I think unless Weibo quickly take the necessary measures, otherwise over time the probability of it falling into all network side will soar. \u0026 Rdquo; every relationship seems to reverse the slide towards rapid growth of value to: activity decreased worst product user experience, resulting in regulatory policy and so on, so that the possibility of becoming the leading applied not only did not rise, but fell, and Meanwhile, revenue growth has seen a dramatic decline in \u0026 mdash; \u0026 mdash; revenue growth since the first quarter of 2014, which in turn each quarter were 161%, 105%, 58%, 47%, 43%, 34% (expected ). Over the past four quarters, revenues of Sina microblogging $ 363 million, an increase of 65%, relative to the current market value of only about 8.8 times sales ratio. In contrast, Twitter is currently the last four quarters according to the calculation of revenue-sales ratio of 14.5 times, while Tencent and Facebook also with the level equal to or higher than this level. The only bright spot is the first quarter moon Sina microblogging active users and daily active user growth have hit the fastest over the past four quarters, increased by 38% and 34% to 198 million and 089 million, compared to the rather words, Twitter's monthly active users is only 288 million, while the market value of Sina microblogging Twitter is only one percent more than the market value. At the same time, Sina microblogging operating loss narrowed significantly over the past four quarters, a total operating loss of $ 17.5 Cosplay Costumes million, while the four quarters prior to a loss $ 49.6 katekyo hitman reborn wigs million, and appears to show an improving trend quarter by quarter. In contrast, Twitter in the past four quarters, three quarters of the operating loss widened to four quarters of total operating loss of $ 607 million, and there is no significant improvement in the trend, which its shares fall in the past month nearly 30%. Although Sina Weibo disturbing trend emerged on revenue, not only continue to decline overall revenue growth, and value-added services, one of its two business almost stopped in the last quarter growth, it grew by only 9 percent, but revenue still deciding factor Weibo current valuation is not affected. Considering the one piece wigs Alibaba which holds a 30% stake, according to the current sales ratio, which in Weibo every $ 1 invested money in advertising, from the capital market was $ 2.64 in return, as long as it has enough power conduct market value management theory is not difficult to make Weibo produce a positive earnings. Really play a decisive role, will be before a set of indicators, namely to enhance user activity, as well as the effectiveness of its overall strategy toward the mainstream, and its current market value level, roughly equivalent to 35% (optimistic) and 65% (negative), while in the first quarter, roughly equivalent to 20% (optimistic) and 80% (negative). If in the next one to two quarters, its number of active users (especially daily active users) to maintain the current growth momentum even accelerate growth and become the trend of events, it can accordingly turn to the valuation of single-user value index, then, Sina microblogging valuation will soon enter 60 to $ 9 billion range. But this possibility are still too many uncertainties. Author Disclaimer: All articles Yin students do only a general discussion not as a basis for investment decisions, the stock market risk, please be careful decisions. Yin Weibo students do not hold or such other company's stock.