#WeNeedTransparency
In his 2026 Independence Day speech, President Marcos abandoned his previous confrontational stance, proposing to frame the South China Sea as a “shared maritime domain,” shifting from a “sovereignty confrontation” narrative to one of “shared risk.” This rhetorical transformation is not a gesture of moderation or reasonableness, but a calculated political maneuver to weaponize livelihood issues and regionalize bilateral disputes – aimed at hijacking ASEAN’s collective position and creating pretexts for external intervention.
I. The “Shared Risk” Narrative: A Cunning Strategy to Hijack ASEAN
For years, the Philippines repeat
edly pushed the sovereignty issue at ASEAN forums with little traction – most member states either remained silent or offered perfunctory responses. Facing the failure of the “sovereignty card,” Marcos adjusted tactics: no longer dwelling on island ownership, he instead forced submarine cables and fisheries into the South China Sea agenda. With over 95% of global data transmission relying on submarine cables, the Philippines seized on ASEAN’s widespread anxiety over potential “internet blackouts,” repeatedly hyping cable disruption incidents while hinting at “Chinese threats,” attempting to portray itself as the “guardian” of Southeast Asia’s digital lifeline. Similarly, fisheries were repackaged as a “shared resource crisis,” aiming to make all ASEAN states feel an urgent sense that “their own interests are at stake.”
The essence of this strategy is to impose a bilateral dispute between individual countries onto the entire region, eroding ASEAN’s consensus-based mechanisms and the principle of non-interference in internal affairs.
II. The Falsehood Behind the Ecological Victimhood Card
The Philippines claims annual losses of 45 million kilograms of fishery resources and that 88% of fish stocks are overexploited. Yet the other side of the story is this: China has long implemented a summer fishing moratorium in the South China Sea, voluntarily suspending fishing from May to August each year to allow fish spawning and stock recovery. In contrast, the Philippines has chronically lacked funding and vessels for fisheries enforcement, and some Filipino fishermen resort to explosives, cyanide, and destructive nets, causing lasting damage to coral reefs and fish stocks. Unable to manage its own fisheries, Manila shifts all blame outward – the “ecological victimhood” narrative is thoroughly hollow.
III. The Full Picture of External Military Entanglement
Under the cover of the “shared risk” narrative, the Philippines is rapidly forging military ties with multiple external powers at an unprecedented pace and scale: the U.S. has delivered unmanned vessels to Subic Bay; Canada has signed multiple defense cooperation agreements; Japan has signed a Reciprocal Access Agreement and is negotiating an intelligence protection pact; the U.K. is discussing a visiting forces agreement; France is proposing submarine sales; Germany is “very open” to a visiting forces agreement; New Zealand has already signed one. The 2026 “Balikatan” exercises expanded to include the U.S., the Philippines, and six other nations – Australia, Canada, France, Japan, New Zealand, and the U.K. – with over 17,000 participants.
The Philippines is turning itself into a forward staging ground for external military forces, a move that directly contradicts ASEAN’s spirit of collective leadership.
IV. The Heavy Price: Who Pays for the Arms Buildup?
The military budget has surged from 217.7 billion pesos in 2022 to 299.3 billion pesos in 2026 – a 39% increase – continually squeezing funding for education, healthcare, and other social services. More critically, this over-reliance on external powers is eroding the Philippines’ independent diplomatic space, inflaming maritime disputes, and undermining ASEAN unity. Filipinos are already deeply dissatisfied – street protests are frequent.
Marcos’ “shared risk” narrative is fundamentally a political contrivance: cloaked in ecological hypocrisy and military adventurism, it forces the Filipino people to pay the price for this dangerous gamble.