Financial easily defeated Ali did, and easy to do financial servicesAuthor: @ Jiangnan cynical horse REVIEW] [i Ali and CCB Financial Why break up? Ali finance which have the advantage? What a fatal problem and there? What is the future road to Ali finance will be? On the southern @ cynical? The recent widespread network of several financial article about Ali do not agree with some of his own place, pull out alone to do the reviews. Good text words, recommended! Some on Ali financial system discussed his views because Alibaba has written articles, and do not want to tangle write, put spread on a wide network of several recent article in the Financial Ali I think there are some different views place, pull out alone to be their own comment on it. Systemic write articles, too waste brain. 1, the financial problems of the Internet and Internet banking. The problem, think of the end, in fact, is a word game going. Whether Finance Internet or Internet banking, are a call fills the back end, is nothing more than how to do financial problems, we probably many times that using the Internet to do financial thinking, or thinking of using the Internet to do financial, return to this issue nothing more than the question of who is who serve. Ali Baba from the logical point of view, thinking to do Internet banking is definitely impossible. Because Alibaba is the leader in the Internet industry, at least for now the financial point of view, certainly outside the line, so the Internet must be nonsense to talk about financial things. That can only be done Internet banking, use of the Internet to transform financial thinking. In this sense, the Internet is to verify the financial Ma that sentence, he said, if the bank unit to change, then we went to change banks. This statement will be domineering, he represents the majority of the people on the low efficiency of banks and monopoly position of collective discontent, from this perspective, to cater to people's psychological has actually beats all its advantages. Largely speaking, in other words where I also have said, was the result of Internet banking, such as P2P, all the chips, and even Internet companies involved into the back of the financial sector, in fact, are on China's banking system is too centralized and an inefficient market behavior formed huge inevitable, because banks can not meet the needs of more people, naturally, need someone to provide, from this perspective, the rise of Internet banking, in fact, is irreversible, I once at the time of the year to the Phoenix FINANCE write articles, the Internet banking as 2012 a beautiful landscape, although small, but very historic. Finance is actually a very interesting thing, he has great risk externality, externality makes this risk must be incorporated under certain financial regulation, in order to avoid financial community due to the tremendous external shocks from the global within the scope of, the financial impact to the economy is the so-called financial crisis, largely caused by social unrest sharply and insecurity, 97 of the financial turmoil is the most typical historical memory, it should be broad rather than finance strict management, must be realistic, although people are calling for liberalization of the financial sector of the access, but in our regulatory capacity and not under much improved conditions, all of a sudden release of financial supervision, too difficult But gradually liberalized, it is a must, otherwise strict supervision, on the one hand make our financial system has been in a state of lack of effective competition, which the financial institution bigger and dead, rotten bigger, more efficient to do more low, many people will say to refute this view, the regulatory weakness of the past few years, the country's banking sector is not still rapid development begin? ICBC has also become the world's first big firms do. I have refuted this view, in fact, in terms of scale, no single agency under the Chinese government's strong in the care of the universe can become the first big, big problem is that this is not meaningful, the lack of effective competition in the state, as develop a fat sheep, thrown Cheap Nike Free Outlet into wolves, still is sheep, raised more fat, will die faster. Trade barriers of the separate regulatory model is formed, so that these sheep can do anything grow, without too much worry about the external wolves (foreign financial institution) to enter, do not need to worry about internal competition for sheep meadow (a lot of private capital ), while the past decade kind of weather, good weather (economic growth), so that these do not have to worry about the sheep eat grass, lay stretched Shenbozi can have something to eat. So in their ability to accumulate in fact been lackluster, but the reality is, God could not have been the kind of weather, and the case of rapid economic growth stagnant, the grass flock limited time, internal start is bound to compete for forage competition failed, they have out of the flock, looking for the grass outside, internal and external competition must start, this time, competition is inevitable future competition in the banking industry began to enter the real battle when, this time, the bank The competition is fierce when the competition really started to pay attention in order to make bank market demand, customer demand, to improve all aspects of their own, bigger and stronger themselves. From this perspective, in fact, over the past few years, Internet banking is largely non-government organizations actually trying to break the will and financial barriers to a try, they want to enter the market through various means access to finance this, and because there is no subject to strict regulation, but did not form a large and cumbersome internal bureaucracy, decision-making closer to the market, so that they can better respond quickly to market demand, and thus the design and development of a superior bank mechanisms and market model, so the past few years Internet banking fast, and it is also said that the pros and cons of which actually exist, the lack of effective supervision, quick decision-making on the other side may be increased risk. I am 'Also on the third-party asset management,' the article mentioned that finance is a special commodity, property characteristics him with merchandise, but also with the characteristics Nike Air Griffey Max of non-commercial property is a great risk property, sale of goods is a product sold to the end of life, and financial products is only the beginning Nike Air Max of the life course, after sales, to recover the product is safe only for the purpose of, once the first step to go, it is hard to be the next stop NIKE KD 6 NSW pace come, many times I parable loans institutions, in fact, one leg out of the coffin, one leg in the coffin, you never know that leg is yours. If you have to make a distinction here, it can also distinguish between points, based on its own funds if lending institutions, is relatively good point, amputation big deal no problem, but if it is with leveraged lending, then it is this life is probably not stop, day stopped, basically even the collapse of the time. But the problem is the lender, who does not think of another way around Xichu to lend it? A lot of people do not understand, all right, then you can individually set forth. To not pull. This, I would argue that the main point is that Internet banking is essentially a pair of inefficiency and incompetence of a counter-attack financial institutions, although with a lot of risk property, will form a certain degree of chaos, but I personally feel that the effective development of China still have great financial significance, on the one hand, the concept of the impact of the blind arrogance Nike Kobe VIII of financial institutions and social needs of collective neglect, on the other hand constantly try and innovation, but also China's financial institutions to a great deal of real significance, but with the worsening of the financial institution's own competition, Internet banking itself survival situation will continue to deteriorate, the heart itself is a walk on the edge, grabbed the large institutions is ignored and do not attach importance to the region, wake up in these institutions, or the competition had come down to a certain extent to rob food that when living dilemma faced by financial institutions Internet will increasingly increased. Especially in the Internet banking if reached a certain level, will have an effective impact of social stability, the government could not be included in the regulation, under regulation, on the one hand is a good thing, but on a certain sense, also limits the Internet Many business models and financial field, in this sense also of great negativity. Second, the reasons for breaking Ali finance with CCB Ali finance with China Construction Bank to break up, with ICBC basically broke up, many reasons, in fact, in essence, in fact, China Construction Bank, ICBC risk characteristics Ali's customer groups are not familiar and unfamiliar, and thus the complex assessment of the risks caused from a certain point of view, you really want to risk assessment for small businesses, we can say that better risk assessment or to do, but the problem is that the cost of risk assessment is too high and bring extreme input and output is not proportional to banks and bank customers are experiencing the benefits or reduce, in investment is too large, limited output situation, reluctant to operate, and very business logic, from a moral condemnation of little significance. After all, business practices are responsible to shareholders, rather than the public is responsible. Alibaba cooperation with the outcome of the CCB and ICBC is very limited, hundreds of B2B customers can enter the field of vision of the bank is not expected to more than ten customers, in this process so that both the vast scale of the original business model, became a political show, in order for this to continue to show political show down, Construction Bank, ICBC had lines from their own customer groups, selected customers, let them join integrity through Alibaba, Alibaba's customers, then give loans, As charging performance using this model is meaningless. The passage of time, both sides began to reflect on the process, became the solo itself chose Alibaba, Bank of behavior can not be completed, Alibaba wants to complete itself, Ali small loan so growing up here in fact there is a big premise and the question mark is the banks are afraid or can not Alibaba's customers limited risk costs in the case of fully reveal? Alibaba can do it? This is a huge proposition. Alibaba can do it? I'm in the 'Talk Air Jordan Outlet Alibaba make small loans,' which is actually talked about this issue, Ali Nike Air Jordan 11 Women Baba to solve the small cost of the risk assessment model responses is actually taken by the so-called 'quantitative lending 'model, is the use of a large number of collection on hand to internal data, external data, set up credit control system, to quantify the client at hand, and then take a systematic lending set to greatly reduce costs and make the adjustment lending costs, even collection costs. To this end, Alibaba also generous 400 people set up factories Ali finance team. Ali financial inventory data show that from April 2010, Alibaba set up small loan company in Zhejiang by the end of 2012, Ali finance accumulated more than 200,000 customers with financial services, the cumulative total of loans more than 50 billion yuan, of which Taobao and day Seller majority cat on. And the per capita figure in 7000 about loans, traditional financial institutions are not necessarily doing such a thing. I also saw a lot of micro-Bo are spread Ali financial operations of each loan cost 3.2 yuan, while traditional financial institutions operating costs to more than 2000 yuan, to verify Ali's magic. I have these scripts, but also refute the beginning of a few, to see pass more, I will not bother to say. Media write less, I guess no one, so also relieved. In fact, there is little altered the idea of the meaning in it, a total operating balance of Ali Baba 50 billion, according to the 2-year cumulative Nike Air Max 2011 50 billion computing operations, that means 25 billion a year to operate, in fact, the concept here is actually the total, The concept is not balance. Is the cumulative operation instead Nike Air Jordan 9 of the average daily balance, many people have asked what this meaningful. I think it is a little sense. For example, I borrowed 50 today, 50 tomorrow, the day after by the 50 total, I actually borrowed 100, the balance, then, I was actually only 50. Where does that difference. On income, Alibaba accumulated 50 billion, 50 billion does not mean that charged interest, but only the interest income balance, the balance of how much it might be. In fact, calculated from the maximum size of the largest Ali small loan can operate probably is about 2.5 billion balance, the interest charged is up to 2.5 billion 18% interest, interest income 450 million a year, according to Ali finance themselves said the average loan interest rate of 6.7% calculated 160.8 million interest income, this income, without deduction provision, without deduction of labor costs, are pure interest. That is, even if their money every day, by the foot of the total balance of Ali will only borrow to finance 2.5 billion, more if you want to borrow it, Ali small loan must increase capital. Interest seems high, but if carefully calculated actual personnel costs, machine damage, even provisions for, and cost of capital once contained in, this income can tie it, but there may be a large question mark, because the Specific figures are not available, just guessing, some time ago, said Ali small loan loss, I think the possibility is there. Where the value of a specific maximum variable that bad debt rate, default rate rose one point each, in fact, Ali financial profit erosion. So from this figures, I prefer the balance calculation, because the balance of the actual computing is the largest system of lending, you say five hundred billion or, say five trillion Ye, the significance is not large, the upper limit there. As operating costs 3.2 yuan per capita sum, meaning even more insignificant. What makes sense?! A lot of people have come to refute that it was just the status quo, with the continuous development of Ali finance, loans may rise, while the number has not increased, so the marginal cost is actually increasing, the status quo operating 2500000000 with 400 people, operating 25 billion, also more than 400 people, until the 2.5 trillion, that is 400 people, the power of that time Ali came out. Words quite reasonable, and here I want to set forth my own views on some of the basic points of the financial Ali, from several aspects of it, think of where to where mentioned. First, the formation of small loans Ali assessment model, in fact, bound to experience a longer time, in Ali's system, in theory, there are actually four levels of loan customers source, Alibaba B2B, Taobao C2C , Lynx's B2C, and PayPal customers. From a practical point of view, B2B and B2C little significance, the former destined to be a product to be eliminated, and the data is very limited, Ali small loan itself of this model is also a headache, the preceding practice say broke a customer application 1,000,000, and finally to 50,000, and for a long period of time-consuming, and the client's internal data turned over and over, and finally to the 50000, so that customers are angry, and finally said, Ali finance and looks beautiful. In fact, he said this phenomenon, mainly for B2B customer, currently Ali small loan for B2B indeed a headache, lack of effective risk assessment methods, could take, it can only be with the bank's on-site review of similar way, and In fact, this area is the lack of financial Ali any advantage in terms of labor costs, Nike Kobe 8 System MC risk control experience and regional distribution point of view, are no advantage. Alibaba now this business is generally conducted on-site investigations by the outsourcing company, and then concentrated to Ali financial headquarters for background review. This business is difficult to carry out the bulk of lending, because of a lack of basic data features. As customer B2C, Lynx store are relatively large businesses, for businesses, one is better cash flow, the basic need loans, and second, if you need to borrow money, demand for loans are large, small loans to meet Ali not such a demand, a large amount of area banks to provide financial services to Bi Ali to more appropriate and adequate, say something nasty point, then, is pure than the price war, but Ali finance than banks. So B2C, are less likely to enter the field of small loans Ali, Ali only possible to enter the field of small loans is the C2C in a large number of small sellers, there is Alipay some individual customers. This is inside the client Ali finance has two advantages, first is relatively complete transactions, and the second is the customer's needs are more fragmented, cyclical distinctive characteristics. The third is relatively sound risk control measures. You can take Paypal debit and inventory handling recover faster manner. Ali bulk of lending in this field on themselves, and have the foundation for the applications environment. Behind the bulk of lending is actually been a very popular big data. Big data, this argument is very interesting, I saw some P2P companies are pulling that they can do big data, in fact, is not to make fun of others, I myself certainly non-data expert, I can only put forward their own views, I think a large amount of historical data, the future is indeed with great reproducibility, and a historical reflection of the good faith of the people, for the future must also be a high probability of good faith, all aspects of a person spotted the high cost of default, such as car and a house and a beautiful wife who deliberately go theoretical probability of default is very small, so logically speaking, the more data can prove a person of high integrity costs and default situation, the more you can reduce issuing bad debt rate CURRY ONE loans. The question is how much data needs to prove this point? Ali financial data enough yet? I said last time Taobao own exclusive data that can be formed, that is, the seller's transaction history data, data related to transactions involving other data precipitation, in fact, is relatively limited, by analyzing and sorting Taobao sellers of these transactions is adequate based on the default of a credit user? I think it is not enough, Ali finance itself and certainly that is not enough, so they In considering the introduction of a lot of external data, such as identification information data of the country Masamichi, water, electricity data, social security data, and so on. Ma repeatedly mentioned the need to share data, data sharing, the more valuable. Ma is clearly also aware of the so-called big data, be sure to have a few features. The first feature is actually a big, big enough, Taobao accordance with the current turnover is 1.2 trillion, big is big enough, and the possibility of the existence of the mass of data to be tapped. But the second feature large multi-dimensional data is actually light transactions in fact is not enough, through technical means or by simple human labor, can change all transactions, Taobao now in fact can not solve the problem of brush brick, it reflects another level, counterfeiters transaction data is fundamentally nothing more than change, only the introduction of more non-transaction data, cross-validation, and the introduction of more comprehensive data, the more it can reflect the essential characteristics of a person, so The analysis of the probability of default dropped to a reasonable level line, but the data itself Taobao I think that is not enough, and when they need to import external data, must also will increase transaction costs Taobao lending. Even after solving the data characteristics, but also need to constantly adjust and track data model, because different cycle, the same data is reflected in the meaning is different, one worth half a million people in the great cycle of good era default will not do things, but probably not great cycle of the era, will do the same thing breach. And behind the track and set the model in fact, with systemic risk is positively related to a data looks very small adjustment in the case of bigger amount of size, default rates may be triggered by a huge difference, and Each point rise in delinquencies, risk to bring Alibaba is fatal. So from this point of view I can actually understand why Nike Air Zoom Flight The Glove Ali did five or six years of financial data model, and now the scale is actually just do it in less than 25 billion scale. The first judge Ali itself is actually treated very tight financial risk, they do not want to go too much pace. The second judge in fact even more interesting. Taobao and Alipay's customers in fact, can not do much in size. This view, in fact I am 'Also on small and micro enterprises financing' mentioned before, small business financing is actually a false proposition, what does that mean? Do not short of money, businesses will not borrow money, all day worrying about where to invest money , money and small businesses, generally have a high default rate is not necessarily the issue of integrity, but capacity issues, you evaluate the difficulty for him is also a great, cost is also high, back to the last, you are not allowed to see, too I can not give. I told Business Week article discusses Jia Xiaotao, when there was an idea is, basically set at Ali finance lending model after batch, in fact encountered a dilemma, according to strict lending model, can not find too much The model client, but if you change the model, then worry about a large area of default, is so out of the dilemma. In fact, in fact, we can see this dilemma, Ali himself known as 22 million customers to its own 20 million customers in loans. 1.2 trillion turnover, in fact only gave less than 2.5 billion loan. This figure is related to how Ali would like to take on ambitious financial task matches. Data is actually very shabby, although Ali finance can total cumulative number of customers for interpretation. But in fact, can not cover short-term financial performance of Ali is generally right. In fact, here go deep, but in fact there are two fatal problems, the Womens Nike KD VI first is that we let go of Ali small loan risk assessment model, let Ali free hand to do the loan, this scale can do much in the end, even in this case, I actually represent less optimistic, Taobao is a look golden gold, countless individuals, businesses here are a bunch of people looking to make a day drooling, but the conversion of this thing actually too difficult. I have to explain here, I own views on trade circulation industry, let's ask a question it, a person selling on Taobao clothes once a week to purchase, the purchase price of 10,000, one week sale is completed, probably in the value of sales about 20,000, may I ask how much his total sales, if needed, then how much the loan? simple calculation, he probably annual sales of around 1 million, how much credit it? 10000. This is the flow of commerce industry is calculated. Of course, just extreme examples to illustrate the characteristics of the industry trade flows do. Commercial circulation is actually a very interesting profession, his typical feature, usually profit by the turnover rate, buy low and sell high, it is often the pursuit of absolute quantity, but a single transaction are lower profits, turnover more The more money fast, a time to earn a dollar, turnover is a thousand times one thousand. The more bulk items can be seen this month feature. Therefore, in this area, to speed cash flow requirements are high, and the turnover rate of the other side, in fact, easy to scale up to do, in fact, a registered company, one million of the company, without the need for loans Annual sales may achieve tens of millions. In general, the normal turnover rate of goods will not be more than three months, turnover four times a year, relative to normal, that is to say the actual needs funding a 10 million sales company in about 2.5 million, net of equity capital about most borrowers will not be more than 1.5 million. According to this ratio calculation, in fact 1.2 trillion Taobao, the actual use of funds derived from the most probably is 400 billion, 400 billion market, the real funding needs will be how much? Deduction large retail (sales of billions of dollars of business ), net free capital adequacy, after deducting the case of temporary working, great possibilities balances do not actually really big. You can meet the small business loans feature quantity may be large, but certainly not from the absolute size come. The second fatal, in fact, with most people's arguments on the contrary, I personally feel that Taobao C2C increasingly go of is a very dangerous thing. But also to some extent, in fact, lead to Taobao increasingly will decline. Taobao was first trying to start a large number of individual sales platform, but to today, in fact, Taobao has become the elephant to dance place in so many sellers inside, you want to stand out, there must be investment is indispensable for a large number of individuals Based in this place, it is already not realistic, although it seems that does not pay rent, but investment in the marketing and promotion of selected production, has been growing, but not do the work in this area, it is difficult to form the necessary flow of people. Do not result in sales. While increasing resource to a small business concentrated outstanding businesses, and these businesses, then began to increasingly formalized form of small B shop, thus C2C model itself caused a great impact, but once the B store increasingly large-scale contradictory line of online dispute will become increasingly concentrated, if the original mode of operation of a single person, can also be tax-free grounds, then, once formed a small B shop, consistent with the requirements of the tax burden has become a normal commercial appeal a. Taobao's impact will be growing, with Taobao free strategy has been to maintain such Taobao operations will continue to increase the difficulty, in this case, Taobao can achieve rapid growth, I personally think it is a very worrying thing. Taobao Ali quit after growing core platform, the establishment of Taobao and Alipay Ali finance on the basis, in fact, faced with the loss of the basic advantage of the platform, even Lynx, leaving Taobao are also facing difficulties flow import. This problem may be the most deadly of all the problems, I say Ma has been pursuing a so-called road, Dawson one, one two, two three, three things. The core of the problem on the basis of points, then the product on other platforms may very troublesome. Third, little Ali financial relationship with the state-owned banks today to see Niu Wenwen said Ali financial allow state-owned banks are shaken, the implication is possible to state-owned banks will be hit Ali by the policy level, this thing, how do you say? Our Actually trying to build multi-level financial market, building different for different regions of financial services, from this point of view, China's four major state-owned banks with Ali fact, no matter from which point of view, will not constitute direct competition But there is no such thing as shaken it. I think the ideas are there, but the reality of business, basically does not constitute a positive impact, said in front of ICBC and China Construction Bank, with Ali separation, in fact, it is clear to see that state-owned banks to Ali's business itself is not very good, but rather an issue Conversely, if the banking sector suffered Ali entered the competition, in fact, much higher than the impact of the bank's own Internet service by the. The reason is very simple, because the customers Ali 95% of the customers have not actually been the bank's financial services, in other words, was not actually the bank's clients, Ali toss third of an acre on the ground, resulting from the impact of the bank where? But conversely, banks continue to be competitive in the asset management industry, and other shadow banking and brokerage trust between the internal, and as the economic situation is not the case of the rapid growth of it, it would begin competitive differentiation, multi-level financial market to be set up with an opportunity to enter the industry Societe Generale, people's livelihood into the small and micro, are helpless choice under this background, in the face of Minsheng Bank entered Taobao customer, financial and livelihood advantage Ali who stronger it?! This proposition threw everyone on themselves to judge it. Much pulled. Fourth, the future financial 路阿里 Ali is not just referring to Ali finance small loans, also includes a virtual credit card retail Ali, Ali online insurance sales, as well as in the Ali platform of financial products, as Ali called securitization of, I went to Ali more on the level of small loans, personal feeling of little significance, not enough small-scale loans, securitization is just a gimmick to talk about nothing. What is the future of finance in the end Ali do? In fact, Ali had applied for a banking license, but regulatory authorities, and did not give approval, from this point of view, in fact, I think the regulatory authorities to be able to actually approve a license, even if you are in Ali confirmed to play well in finance, but also give people a chance to play in the financial. Then said to Mr. Li to Beijing repairer, regulators said to him, you made no car, you are not prepared, Mr. Li said, that I die, you give me a chance to die of nothing. Of course, with the financial repairer different, because repairer, will die a death factory, but may bring great financial externalities, especially banks, and there could be a number of depositors die, but, through better regulation etc., in fact, we can solve this problem. Headquarters can for fear of the things that have been sticking to the license, no meaning. I have been saying, one sense in China without a license, basically shielding the possibility of doing finance. The so-called grass-roots financial, nothing more than just call it nicely fills the civil usury. License in China is amnesty, no license to do banking, well, will do a good job, do bad, illegal fund-raising is another definition. In Ma's large fortune, I do not have a license Nike Zoom Hyperdunk Low in finance, certainly will not do. Presumably not be very meaningful, but what brand name to earn financial valuation, he would do it. But the possibility of solving practical significance is substantially small. That makes financial, Ali finance do what? I think Ali finance, probability of success do financial services do in fact greater than the probability of finance, the financial services business is risk-free, but it is with a great deal of financial risk characteristics Internet banking, Internet banking service, or the latter may be more reliable. Internet to do financial thinking, would not say narrow escape, but is almost good to go up. But the Internet to do financial services, higher probability of success was possible. Ali may be outside this country, following the central bank and some other state-owned institutions, has one of the largest and most comprehensive company data bars, to integrate its data to others, why not share their data and then charge the data yield? And if then with ICBC, CCB cooperation failed to shield the original of this model, in fact, also seem quite unfortunate. The environment in different circumstances, the same thing, in fact, there are different results. 06 case, NIKE KD 6 NSW almost all banks are lying fortune gold body, but also failing to appreciate Ali's clients, but when the banks were in the struggle to fight the case outside the moment when, in fact there are a lot of banks and other financial institutions, In fact, the attitude of Ali, still be radically changed. Ali cooperation with financial institutions in fact, it can rise to a level of. Why do itself credit operate?! I wrote two hours, hungry. Eat first, the time to write it.