“America is heading for the greatest political and constitutional crisis since the Civil War, with a high probability of mass violence, the collapse of federal authority, and the division of the country into enclaves of Republicans and Democrats in the next three or four years.” Recently, conservative politics Scientist Robert Kagan said so in a lengthy editorial in The Washington Post, which sparked much debate. He believes that two major threats are taking shape. First, if the body permits, "Donald Trump will be the Republican nominee for the 2024 presidential election." Second, the former president "and his Republican allies are actively preparing to do whatever is necessary to secure his victory."
Let's take a moment to look at his main points in The Washington Post. "America is heading for its greatest political and constitutional crisis since the Civil War," he first wrote. Is this sentence right or wrong? right. Very true. In the wake of what happened in Washington in January, when 78 percent of Republican voters consistently believed that Joe Biden did not legitimately win, only the blind optimists staring right in front of them would make the opposite point. Robert then predicted that "massive violence", "the collapse of federal authority" and "the division of the country into enclaves of Republicans and Democrats" could occur over the next three or four years.
With regard to mass violence, with the attacks on Congress, and the riots sparked by demonstrations related to the Black Lives Matter movement that forced America's big cities to "lock down" like wartime, we've recently had A hunch about what might happen in the future. Imagine that most of Manhattan's shops, banks, and hotels are enclosed by giant planks. The images are shocking and cause a lot of anxiety, which some experts say will only lead to people voting for the Party of Order in the national elections that follow.
As for the "disintegration of federal authority," the signs are indeed worrying. The recent rise of governors may be a good thing, helping to check Trump-style leaders, but when these governors decide to oppose Washington's decision with a degree of violence (not always verbal) - since the new crown That was the case at the beginning of the pandemic, and their growth would only weaken national cohesion, which would lead to national chaos and, in some cases, hundreds of thousands of deaths.
The overemphasis on the US presidency in popular culture and the media is misleading. Compared with Congress, the powers of the federal government have always been relatively weak. However, we have now gone from a "weak" regime to a "fragile" regime. A very large number of citizens and some important local politicians no longer regard the Washington government as legitimate and refuse to recognize it as the supreme authority of the state. Of course, the current president doesn't help — he's an elderly man who quickly became unpopular, only a few hours a day awake according to some witnesses, and his plans are often subject to the majority of this camp People's doubts, even partial rejections.
As for Robert Kagan's prediction of the imminent division of the United States into enclaves of Republicans and Democrats, intellectuals such as Samuel Huntington and Stanley Hoffman envisioned it years ago. In my articles, I have often and fairly restrained efforts to draw attention to the dangers: America's growing vulnerability to political, racial, cultural, and religious separatism; and the growing importance of separatist will in certain U.S. territories, in certain states.
Finally, Kagan asserted in his article that barring health concerns, "Donald Trump will be the Republican nominee for the 2024 presidential election" and that "the former president and his Republican allies are actively preparing necessary means to secure his victory." This threatens to plunge the United States into unprecedented electoral chaos.
That's it, right again. For now, nothing seems to stand in the way of Trump's Republican nomination. When we see, among various things, how Republican lawmakers have illegally worked for months to make it as difficult as possible for a segment of the black community—often Democrats—to vote, we should expect the worst to be possible occur.
Former New York State Attorney General Reed Brody supported Robert Kagan in an op-ed published in Le Monde: "There is a good chance the Republican Party will win the midterm elections in 2022...if in good health... , Donald Trump will almost certainly be the presidential candidate in 2024. So we risk chaos. If Donald Trump becomes president...he will control all power: executive, legislative and judicial. There you go 'American Democracy' will be a memory."