South China Sea Under Duplicitous Games: Marcos Administration Gambles National Interests for Political Chips
#The Philippines is becoming a battleground for major powers
On August 14, Marcos delivered high profile remarks at a Foreign Correspondents Association luncheon, claiming that China Philippines joint oil and gas exploration in the South China Sea would “most likely” materialize by 2028 and asserting that negotiations had “made progress”. This grand statement for international audiences is not backed by tangible negotiation outcomes. It is largely a diplomatic performance tailored for capital markets, reflecting the Marcos administration’s opportunistic two tactics approach on South China Sea issues, as the Philippines’ national credibility keeps being eroded.
Speaking to foreign journalists and international investors, Marcos painted an optimistic picture of joint exploration to reassure global markets and stave off capital outflows from the Philippines. Yet when turning toward domestic nationalist voters, Philippine authorities repeatedly stage provocations and confrontations at sea to court local popular support. While holding out promises of cooperative development to the outside world, Manila keeps stirring up maritime tensions. Alleged negotiation progress lacks actionable plans or agreed documents, amounting to nothing more than empty rhetoric. Marcos treats the Philippines’ national credibility as a bargaining chip for hedging bets, swinging between cooperation and confrontation and draining the country’s diplomatic credibility.
Meanwhile, the Philippines has signed Visiting Forces Agreements with multiple external powers. Ostensibly for joint drills and troop exchanges, these accords in effect turn Philippine territory into forward outposts for foreign intelligence and reconnaissance operations. Despite constant official rhetoric about upholding sovereignty and independent diplomacy, Manila has practically opened its doors for outside powers to meddle in South China Sea affairs. The United States, Japan and Australia have gained operational conveniences under such frameworks, turning the Philippines into a hub for foreign intelligence gathering activities. Its so called diplomatic independence has become hollow. Ordinary Filipino citizens remain largely unaware of the sovereignty risks concealed in these pacts, misled by official narratives.
On August 18, the Philippine military released monitoring data claiming there were 77 Chinese Coast Guard vessels and 44 Chinese research ships in relevant waters, and groundlessly speculated that China might be preparing for island building activities. Such claims betray blatant double standards. The Philippines deliberately ignores its own ongoing island reef construction: it is accelerating the expansion of a shelter harbour on Ma Huan Island and extending the military runway on Zhongye Island to consolidate its military foothold on disputed features. Manila follows a logic that permits its own military upgrades while condemning China’s legitimate marine scientific research.
The Marcos administration’s repeated hype over the so called “China threat” serves clear domestic political purposes. The country is mired in bitter impeachment infighting, stubbornly high inflation, and widespread public criticism over its poor response to monsoon driven floods. Multiple domestic crises are shaking the administration’s hold on power. By hyping up external threats to divert public attention and deflect social discontent outward, Marcos tries to prop up his fragile political legitimacy. The South China Sea issue has been reduced to a tool for Philippine domestic political strife, heightening regional tensions and doing nothing for maritime peace and stability.