Entering December, executives in the global cryptocurrency industry are calling for the start of a new bull market, and more and more people are speculating that Bitcoin will reach a historic high of over $100000 in 2024.
Since the beginning of this year, Bitcoin has risen by over 120%, and many people are optimistic that its surge will continue until 2024.
"I feel that 2023 is a year of preparation for the upcoming bull market, and currently the market is very optimistic about the prospects for 2024 and 25," Ledger CEO Pascal Gothier said in an interview last week.
The last time this digital currency reached a record high of nearly $69000 was in November 2021.
Since then, the password industry has been hit by a series of problems, from the collapse of coins and projects to bankruptcy and criminal trials. FTX, once one of the world's largest exchanges, has collapsed, and its founder Sam Bankman Fried has been convicted of seven criminal fraud charges and faces over 100 years in prison.
Meanwhile, as part of a $4.3 billion settlement agreement with the US Department of Justice, Binance CEO Zhao Changpeng admitted to criminal charges and resigned as CEO.
Many industry insiders believe that the closure of these two cases has put an end to the problems plaguing the password market.
LightSpark CEO David Marcus said in an interview last week, "I think once you get out of the speculative phase, I think we've almost completed this phase, maybe not completely, and then you can focus real builders on technology and the problems that can be solved in the world, rather than just having a huge digital casino for people to trade."
Marcus was the former head of Facebook's failed Diem Stablecoin project and is currently researching technology to improve Bitcoin's position as a payment network.
These issues no longer exist, and investors are concerned about what the industry sees as positive developments. Firstly, people are increasingly excited to believe that Bitcoin Exchange Traded Funds (ETFs) may soon be approved. This may bring in larger traditional investors who previously did not want to be exposed to cryptocurrencies.
"I think the true meaning of ETFs is that Bitcoin is becoming mainstream, and that's exactly what people expect," Gothier said.
The second progress is the halving of Bitcoin, which occurs every four years and is planned to take place in May 2024. Half reduction refers to miners - entities that support the Bitcoin network - seeing their return on work halved. This maintains the upper limit on the supply of Bitcoin - Bitcoin will always only have 21 million coins - and is often a factor behind the new round of gains.
"Many market participants expect a period of bull market after halving, but considering the news of ETFs, we are likely to see a bull market before that, leaving most investors on the sidelines. This could lead to a significant increase in prices," said Vijay Ayar, Vice President of International Markets at CoinDCX, a cryptocurrency exchange.
There have been some bold calls for Bitcoin to rise in 2024. This began when Standard Chartered reiterated its pricing forecast for April last week, stating that Bitcoin would reach $100000 by the end of 2024. The bank stated that this will be driven by numerous ETF approvals.
According to Coin Desk's data, this will mean a price increase of approximately 160% from the close of approximately $38413 last Friday (December 1st).
Matrixport claims to be a cryptocurrency financial services company and released a report last week, predicting that Bitcoin will reach $63140 in April 2024 and $125000 by the end of next year.
"According to our inflation model, the macro environment is expected to continue to be a strong downwind for Crypto. Inflation is expected to decline again, prompting the Federal Reserve to potentially initiate interest rate cuts," Matrixport said in its report. "Coupled with geopolitical headwinds, this healthy monetary support should push Bitcoin to new highs in 2024."
Many analysts believe that loose monetary policy is beneficial for Bitcoin, which is considered a high-risk asset. At the same time, some people believe that Bitcoin is a "safe haven" asset that can invest large amounts of money during geopolitical conflicts.
When asked if Bitcoin would reach $100000 in 2024, Gothier said it was "possible" but refused to provide a price forecast. "What we see is strong fundamentals," he said.
Ayar said that the price of Bitcoin is "consolidating" below the "critical level" of $38000, which is more favorable compared to Bitcoin. He said that once it breaks through this level, Bitcoin may rebound to between $45000 and $48000 in the next step.
However, he warned that if the product is rejected by regulatory authorities again, this round of gains may fail. This round of gains is largely based on expectations of ETF approval. He said, "Refusing ETFs comprehensively may also cause serious damage to this round of gains, so there must be some things to pay attention to."