外交のプロフェッショナルの見方です。
ご参考までに。
オバマがデラウェア州選出の大物上院議員ジョー・バイデン(65歳）を副大統領候
補に選んだのに対し、マッケインは比較的無名のアラスカ州女性知事サラ・ペイ
リン(44歳）を選びました。一見意表をついた人選ですが、マッケイン陣営のしたた
かな計算がはっきり読み取れます。
老齢で平凡(少なくとも外見的に）というマイナス・イメージをカバーするため
に、思い切って若くて生きのいい相棒を選んだというのもありますが、それ以上
に、女性層へのアピール、とくに行き場を失ったヒラリー・クリントンの支持者
（女性が圧倒的に多い）や低所得白人層（working poor)の受けを狙って、あわよ
くば民主党支持層にも食い込もうという作戦と思われます。これで、今までやや劣
勢だったマッケイン陣営が急に勢いづく可能性もあり、選挙戦が俄然面白くなりそ
うです。共和党全国大会は来週からミネソタ州で始まります。
もともと副大統領はお飾り的なポストですが、大統領に不測の事態が起こったとき
には大統領に昇格するケースも少なくなく（最近ではルーズヴェルト急死→トルーマ
ン、ケネディ暗殺→ジョンソン、ニクソン辞任→フォードなど）、また、副大統領か
ら選挙で大統領になるケース（アイゼンハワーの時のニクソン、レーガンの時のパ
パ・ブッシュなど）もあります。それぞれどのような経緯で、どのような政治的思
惑で副大統領は選ばれるのか、過去５０年の事例を見てみましょう。
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Veep History: A Survey of Modern Running Mates
washingtonpost.com
Tuesday, August 19, 2008; 8:26 AM
1952 Eisenhower--Nixon: Dwight Eisenhower picked Nixon, then a U.S.
Senator from California, for his youth, West Coast appeal and strong
anti-communist record. So began Nixon's long and turbulent life on the
national stage.
1960 Kennedy--Johnson: John F. Kennedy and Lyndon Johnson were at daggers
drawn for the Democratic nomination but once the Massachusetts Senator won
it, he bowed to the political reality that only Johnson could bring him
the Southern states he needed to be elected president.
1964 Johnson--Humphrey: Lyndon Johnson waited until the last possible
minute before naming his former Senate colleague from Minnesota as his
running mate. Humphrey's past run for president -- in 1960 -- and his
status as a liberal champion in the Senate attracted Johnson to the
Minnesotan.
1968 Nixon--Agnew: Widely regarded as the worst vice presidential pick in
modern history, Agnew had some appeal to Richard Nixon due to his quick
ascent in Maryland politics -- he was the governor of the Old Line State
when plucked by Nixon. Agnew eventually resigned amid a federal
investigation surrounding his finances. He was replaced by Gerald Ford.
1976 Carter--Mondale: National Democrats were stunned when little known
Georgia Gov. Jimmy Carter managed to win the presidential nomination. By
picking Mondale, a known and respected presence in Washington, Carter
quieted those worries. Mondale also helped cement organized labor behind
Carter's candidacy.
1980 Reagan--Bush: Ronald Reagan faced real questions about whether he was
too conservative to be elected president. In choosing George H.W. Bush,
the epitome of country club/establishment Republicanism, Reagan showed
that he was no extremist. Reagan turned to Bush after discussions with
Gerald Ford about the possibility of a co-presidency didn't pan out. The
pick was in many ways pushed on Reagan by his advisers after what they
believed to be a very strong primary performance by Bush.
1988 Bush--Quayle: Looking for a bit of youth and charisma, George H.W.
Bush bypassed newly minted Sen. John McCain and instead opted for Quayle,
who proceeded to be beaten badly by Sen. Lloyd Bentsen in the vice
presidential debate ("I knew John Kennedy?") and mis-spell the word
"potato."
1992 Clinton--Gore: Bill Clinton's choice of the Tennessee senator turned
global prophet is widely regarded as an inspired one by historians. Gore
solidified the generational change message of the ticket and Gore
redefined the vice presidency as a job worth having.
2000 Bush--Cheney: George W. Bush had been governor of Texas for less than
six years when he became his party's nominee. Choosing Cheney, who led the
vice presidential search for him, was seen as a brilliant strategic gambit:
Cheney's gravitas and decided lack of interest in being president himself
helped Bush convince voters he was serious not just about politics but
also governing.
2008?Obama--Biden?? ?McCain--Palin?