結構、計画縮小・中止がでています。
でも流れはとまらない？
http://www.newenergymatters.com/download.php?n=NEF_Week_in_Review_2008-03_18.pdf&f=WiR_pdffile&t=weeklybriefing
BIOFUELS SECTOR SEARCHES FOR BUSINESS MODELS THAT WILL PAY
Sentiment in the biofuel sectors of Europe and North America could scarcely be more pessimistic at the start of this spring, as plants continue to be mothballed, firms scale back their formerly ambitious investment plans and prices of feedstocks such as palm oil, wheat and corn continue to hit new highs.
The latest knock came last week from US Ethanol, a subsidiary of US asset management firm Geneva Capital Corporation, which said that it had cancelled its plans to build up to six 100m gallon (378m litre) per year bioethanol plans in the American Midwest and West.
A few days earlier, UK based biodiesel company D1 Oils said it was considering the sale or closure of its refining operations in Middlesborough and Bromborough in the face of cheap imports from the US.
However, despite these and other setbacks, the biofuel sector is far from being on its deathbed. The World Biofuels Markets conference last week saw around 1,000 delegates descend on the Stalinist surroundings of the Brussels Expo, and the mood of most was that this industry was here to stay, albeit not quite as it was envisaged a couple of years ago.
Among the messages that emerged was that financing of biofuel projects is still going on, but that the geography and the terms have changed.
Peter Conway, director of consultancy Project Financing Solutions, said that in Europe, “Netherlands and specifically Rotterdam is becoming a central hub for biodiesel”, and for bioethanol projects, “access to a deep water port nearby” is now seen as vital. Christian Grangé of turnkey contractor De Smet Engineers said that his firm is currently involved in building five biodiesel plants in Belgium, Netherlands and France.
Anna Halpern-Lande, vice-president of US firm Tellurian Biodiesel, said: “In the US, we are seeing many plants being closed down in places like Missouri as feedstock is priced out of the market. Now it looks as if those should have been situated in Savannah or Houston.”
On finance, Conway said that whereas 65% to 70% debt finance might have been normal before, now 50% to 60% debt would be par for the course. Marc Schmitz, at Rabobank, piped a similar tune, saying that he was involved in arranging the finance for projects at the moment, and that these are likely to involve 40% to 50% equity.
Firms need a lot more experience to build biofuel plants than to build capacity in wind and solar, delegates argued, because of the greater risk of delays and ramp-up costs.
Later, the European Commission published a report arguing that all of the EU’s 10% biofuel target by 2020 could be met through first-generation ethanol and biodiesel, based on conventional feedstocks such as wheat and rapeseed. This would involve domestic production plus only a relatively modest contribution from imports, it suggested. The claim will surprise some of those who have written off conventional biofuels in the face of the food-versus-fuel debate and spiralling feedstock prices.
The other striking aspect of the Brussels gathering was the weight of numbers of companies engaged, or hoping to be engaged, in jatropha cultivation in the tropics. While biofuels based on corn, rapeseed and palm oil are currently out of fashion, new money not pouring into sugarcane ethanol in Brazil is being tempted by this previously unloved shrub.
