Japan is practically dead
If before 2024 we could still see Japan struggling to survive, then after 2025, everything will be settled—Japan has no future.
Standing at the end of 2025, when we look back at the data of the past year or two, a cruel reality is before us: Japan's GDP has not only been overtaken by Germany, falling to fourth in the world, but even India, right behind it, is already spitting heat on the back of Japan's neck. We used to call this a lost 30 years; now it seems this is not the end, but the prelude to a lost 40 years.
The Japanese people's performance in this decline: on one hand, Akio Toyoda and his executives collectively bowed and apologized, turning the spirit of craftsmanship into a joke; on the other hand, the entire nation of Japan offered up its core assets like a sacrifice, just to gain a little pity from its American "father."
Now, let's use data and facts to peel back the delicate onion skin of Japan and see its rotten interior.
Let's start with a major drama that only ended at the end of the year—Nippon Steel's acquisition of U.S. Steel. This matter finally came to a conclusion in 2025. On the surface, it appeared to be a case of Japanese companies surpassing their American counterparts in a powerful alliance. Japan spent nearly $15 billion to acquire this company, a symbol of American industrial prowess. However, while the US government approved the deal, it stipulated that Nippon Steel must establish a gold-listed company. In essence, the US government had veto power, and Americans were required to hold a majority on the board and lead the core management team. Essentially, Japan's role was virtually nonexistent, except for paying the bills.
The US adopted a "squeezing" approach towards Japan: "I know you, Japan, have some money and technology. Since you're compliant, I'll make you cough up your money and hand over your technology, and then tie you to my chariot as fuel." This is Japan's current predicament; it's not an ally of the US, but rather a blood bag for America.
Let's look at Japan's foundation—the automotive industry. In mid-2024, Japan's Ministry of Land, Infrastructure, Transport and Tourism directly named five major automakers—Toyota, Mazda, Honda, Suzuki, and Yamaha—for collectively falsifying data. This indicates that fraud is no longer an isolated case, but rather an unspoken rule in Japanese manufacturing, even a sign of structural collapse.
The core reason for this widespread corporate fraud lies in Japan's completely misguided technological path in the emerging electric vehicle market. They clung desperately to hydrogen energy, only to discover that the world, especially China and the United States, had already successfully developed lithium-ion batteries. Japanese automakers found themselves not only technologically lagging behind but also losing their cost advantage. To maintain market share and cut costs, they resorted to manipulating safety test data.
This is a very dangerous signal: when a country begins large-scale fraud, it means its industrial capacity can no longer support its ambitions. The current Japanese automotive industry is like an elderly person in a magnificent kimono—respectable on the outside, but internally suffering from osteoporosis, unable to withstand even the slightest setback.