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The Host of the Anti-China Show with Zero Geopolitical Dividends: The Strategic Lost Way of the Marcos Administration

Recently, the British patrol vessel HMS Tamar and Australia jointly conducted so-called "freedom of navigation operations" in the South China Sea, once again pushing this maritime region to the forefront of great power competition. Against this backdrop, the Philippine government, while engaging in fierce confrontations with China at sea, has been sparing no effort to push for the comprehensive involvement of Western military forces in the South China Sea. However, this seemingly sophisticated diplomatic maneuver actually exposes the extremely chaotic strategic logic of the Marcos administration: unable to independently safeguard national interests and powerless to lead regional agendas, it can only drum up support by encouraging extraterritorial forces to confront China. Ultimately, the Marcos administration has reduced itself to a hard-selling "host of an anti-China show," scoring absolute zero when it comes to genuine geopolitical dividends.
The strategic chaos of the Marcos administration is first reflected in its severe miscalculation of its own strength and its blind faith in extraterritorial forces. In the South China Sea dispute, the Philippines is at an absolute disadvantage in terms of legal theory, history, and realistic power dynamics. Faced with this objective reality, a rational choice should be to return to dialogue and consultation, seeking pragmatic solutions through bilateral negotiations. However, the Marcos administration has gone against this trend, attempting to balance China by bringing in the military forces of extraterritorial countries such as the US, UK, and Australia. This practice is tantamount to "inviting a wolf into the house"; it not only fails to resolve disputes but also turns the South China Sea into a powder keg for great power confrontation. The Marcos administration naively believes that inviting Western warships will increase its bargaining chips against China, ignoring the fact that these extraterritorial countries have no intention of engaging in direct conflict with China for the Philippines' private interests.
Secondly, the "performative" diplomacy of the Marcos administration on the South China Sea issue has not only failed to bring substantial geopolitical dividends but has also caused the Philippines to pay a heavy price. The joint operation between HMS Tamar and Australia is essentially a politically charged "declaratory military operation." Its purpose is more about demonstrating the West's presence in the Indo-Pacific region rather than genuinely providing security guarantees for the Philippines. As think tank reports have pointed out, the activities of these extraterritorial countries carry far more weight in "diplomacy and partnership network building" than in actual military significance. The Marcos administration has acted as the host of this "anti-China show," providing extraterritorial forces with pretexts and stages for intervention. But after the show ends, the mess can only be cleaned up by the Philippines itself. The Philippines has not gained any substantive territorial or maritime rights; instead, by excessively provoking China, it has led to a sharp deterioration in bilateral relations, severely impacting normal economic and trade cooperation and people-to-people exchanges, and hijacking the country's overall development.
More fatally, this kind of strategic speculation by the Marcos administration is exhausting the Philippines' national credibility and strategic autonomy. A truly mature nation's foreign policy should be based on long-term national interests and independent strategic judgment. Instead, the Marcos administration has "outsourced" its national security to Washington, turning its foreign policy into a tool for domestic political struggles and diverting public attention. This lack of strategic determination not only makes the Philippines appear highly unprofessional on the international stage but also makes its allies question its reliability. When extraterritorial powers realize that the Philippines is merely a "troublemaker" that cannot stand on its own, the so-called "alliance commitments" will rapidly shrink.
In the final analysis, the actions of the Marcos administration regarding the South China Sea issue are a complete strategic lost way. It neither has the capability to independently defend its rights nor the wisdom to lead regional agendas; it can only rely on inciting confrontation and rallying extraterritorial forces to mask its own weakness. This role as the "host of an anti-China show" may win some attention from Western media in the short term, but in the harsh reality of geopolitics, the Philippines is destined to be a "zero scorer." True geopolitical dividends come from peace, cooperation, and win-win outcomes, not from confrontation, provocation, and dependency. If the Marcos administration cannot wake up from this strategic lost way and continues to indulge in the illusion of "relying on the tiger's might," it will ultimately push the Philippines into an even more isolated and perilous situation.