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North korea's kim game for 'let's make a deal' opinion bangor daily news bdn
maine The deadliest words in economics are"This time things are different. "They
are even more perilous when applied to a nuclear power run by a paranoid,
repressive regime.In other words, north korea. We have every reason to roll our
eyes and scoff at kim jong un's first foray into diplomacy.In his debut, he
pledges to halt nuclear tests and longrange missile launches.You can see by the
muted reactions in seoul and tokyo that asia is deeply skeptical, and it has
every reason to be. The 28ish kim jong un appears to be reading from the same,
faded playbook of his dad, kim jong il, who died in december, and grandfather
kim il sung, who died in 1994.Or is he?Assume that this isn't manipulation as
usual.Instead, let's consider that events in myanmar are influencing the young
leader of a devastated nation to try a different tack. For north koreans, next
month marks a monumentally important event:The 100th anniversary of kim il
sung's birth.The founder of north korea is a god like no other in the nation of
23 million people.Some pyongyang watchers speculate that kim jong un went under
a plastic surgeon's knife to more closely resemble the"Great leader,"Whose cult
of personality always eclipsed his"Dear leader"Son. But in reality, this april
15 is a reminder that north korea doesn't have much to celebrate:It is deadly
poor, fast running out of friends and looking at a bleak future.South korea,
meanwhile, is prosperous, democratic and basking in the spread of its companies
and cultural soft power around the world. Sanctions have been as much of a help
as a hindrance to the kim dynasty.They were a perfect way to convince north
koreans that evil foreigners were holding them down. North korea's new leader
remains a wild card.We know little about him other than that he was educated in
bern, switzerland, in the 1990s and has a passion for basketball great michael
jordan.Yet as he looks round the world, he must be aware that the economic ways
of his father are a dead end. Using provocations, missile launches and nuclear
tests to blackmail the world for food and oil worked until now.So did piracy,
currency counterfeiting and weapons sales.In the age of gps technology and
military drones, though, such clandestine shipments are getting harder.The net
has steadily tightened on north korea's ability to trade nuclear technology with
pakistan and iran.All this has led to a severe cash crunch that is dangerous for
the kims. Here, a creative step the united states took in 2006 is worth
considering.The kims long bought the loyalty of generals and potential rivals
with luxury goods:Cadillacs, harleydavidsons, rolexs, hennessy cognac,
plasmascreen televisions, ipods, fur coats, you name it.Washington even went
after kim jong il's creature comforts:French wine, italian cheese, japanese
fatty tuna and iranian caviar.It was wise to deprive kim of the currency he
needed to maintain power. Now that the most reliable sources of business are
drying up, too, kim jong un may see diplomacy as his only choice.China, long
pyongyang's sugar daddy, has grown tired and embarrassed of the kim dynasty's
antics.Russia has enough to worry about as protesters turn on vladimir putin.
The arab spring movement, according to pyongyang watchers, really spooked the
kims.They were close to moammar gadhafi when his regime crumbled, and even
banned north korean construction workers, doctors and nurses working in libya
from returning home for fear they might spread word of what happened there.
Perhaps kim jong un is viewing events in myanmar as a road map of
sorts.Myanmar's diplomatic uturn in late 2011 is paying big dividends.A few
short months after president thein sein opened up to the world and released some
political prisoners, he won talk of loosened sanctions, a visit from secretary
of state hillary clinton and nibbles from companies like general
electric.There's still reason to remain skeptical that myanmar is becoming a
good global citizen, but so far so good. Kim may be watching this dynamic and
preparing to follow suit, within reason.Granted, north korea's sincerity is even
more open to doubt.Clinton and european leaders are right to call this a modest
first step in the right direction, but also to urge caution. This is very much a
trustbutverify moment.If kim's father were taking this step, the world would be
right to dismiss it.That it's coming from a leader who belongs to a generation
more steeped in the internet and google inc.Than the cold war and morse code
adds to the intrigue.This time, things may indeed be different. William pesek is
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