【相場観】金：買い白金：売りゴム：売りガソリン：売り原油：売りコーン：売りTailed bars are the most important bars on a price chart. Plain and simple. The reason they are so important is because they often give us a very strong clue as to what price might do next, more so than any other type of price bar.Today’s lesson is a summary of my favorite tailed-bar candlestick patterns. These are the same patterns that I look for when I analyze the charts and that I trade regularly. You will learn what these patterns look like and how to identify them as well as what they mean. This will be a great introduction into different tailed bar candlestick strategies for beginners, but also, it’s an excellent refresher for those that already have a basic idea of how I trade and what I look for on the charts daily.This lesson does rely on you knowing the basics of candlestick charts and candlesticks however, so if you aren’t too familiar with this topic then please checkout my candlestick chart tutorial for more information. I am not going to go into detail on specific entry and exits using the patterns discussed today because that is a whole topic unto itself, but I do expand on this in great detail in other articles and in my price action trading courses.Now, let’s get started in learning about some of the best tailed bar candlestick trading patterns…What are tailed bars?A tailed bar is somewhat subjective in nature, but what I mean when I refer to “tailed bars” is a bar with a tail that is noticeably longer than the body or real body (area between the open and closing price).The tails of price bars, sometimes called shadows or wicks, are important to decipher because of what they show and what they imply. They show rejection of a level or price area and either a small, medium or large reversal that happened quite quickly. This shows us that there was exhaustion at that area the tail formed, which has big implications. When we see an area price is becoming exhausted at, it means there is something happening that we need to take note of. That tail is showing us that either buyers really wanted to buy there, or sellers really wanted to sell, why doesn’t really matter, we only care about the what and the how.A tail on a bar implies that price MIGHT move in the opposite direction, and soon. This is obviously a huge piece of data for a price action trader, and you can honestly base your entire trading approach around tailed bars if you want. Daily chart bars are, in my opinion, the most important bars and as a result, daily chart tailed bars are the most important bars of all. If you are unfamiliar with why daily charts are so important, please read my daily chart trading tutorial before moving on.Even if we don’t have an extremely clear tailed price action signal like (my favorite) a pin bar pattern or perhaps a fakey pin bar combo signal, we can still gather a tremendous amount of information from simple tailed bars, which we will go over shortly.In short, tailed price bars are your friend, perhaps your BEST FRIEND in the market, and I suggest you get as close to them as possible, you need to ‘fall in love’ with them and I suggest you make them the one thing you master to succeed at trading. Examples of tailed bar candlestick patterns:The Classic Pin Bar Candlestick PatternThe pin bar candlestick pattern is a tailed bar that shows a sharp reversal in price across the time period of the chart. So, a daily chart pin bar is showing a sharp price reversal during that day period, whereas a 1-hour pin bar shows a reversal in price across a 1-hour period. The higher the time frame, the more ‘weight’ a signal carries, or the more important it is.The pin bar typically has a much longer tail than the body, the body is the distance between the open and close. The tail on a pin bar should be at least 2/3 the length of the total bar, ideally 3/4. Sometimes, there is little or no body, as in the second pin bars depicted below. Here are examples of a couple of different looking pin bars that both have the same meaning; a reversal in price has occurred, represented by the long tail. The implication is that price may move the other direction, opposite the tail… Here’s a real-world example of the classic pin bar candlestick pattern:The Long-tailed Pin Bar Candlestick PatternA long-tailed pin bar pattern is exactly what its name implies; a pin with an unusually long tail on it. These are perhaps the most important bars in all of trading, and they are rare as well. When you see a long-tailed pin bar, stop and take notice because it’s a huge clue that price is going to swing in the other direction. Long-tailed pins often mark major directional changes in the market and even major trend changes.Long-tailed pin bars typically have a smaller real body than a classic pin bar. Their tails are always significantly longer than any nearby bars and as such, they are impossible to miss. They are sometimes good candidates for entering on a 50% retrace per my trade entry trick strategy. Here are a couple of examples of ideal looking long-tailed pin bars. For those of you who are new: Bullish means it’s a potential buy signal and bearish means a potential sell signal… Here’s a real-world example of a long-tailed pin bar candlestick pattern: Another example of a classic long-tailed pin bar candlestick pattern:Double Pin Bar Candlestick PatternIt’s not uncommon to see consecutive pin bars form in a market, often at key chart support and resistance levels as the market is ‘testing’ these areas to see which party is going to win between the bulls and bears (buyers and sellers). You will more commonly see double pin bars or two pin bars back-to-back, but I have even seen three in a row before, but that is rare. Double-pins are something to take very strong notice of because formed within the proper market context and with confluence, they can be an obvious warning signal that price is about to surge the other direction. Here is what they look like… Here’s a real-world example of a double pin bar candlestick pattern:Note: You may notice price just barely violated the lows of the double-pin bar pattern pictured. This happens sometimes and it’s why you need to thoroughly understand proper stop loss placement on your trades before you start trading live. The proper stop loss, a wide-enough one, would have kept you from getting stopped out before the trade went on to be a huge winner…Small tailed bars and Long tailed bars (not pin bars)The following diagram shows what I simply refer to as “tailed bars”. These are bars with significant tails but that are not perfect enough to be considered a “pin bar signal”. As I said in the opening; tails are often significant, so we need to look at any tailed bar as potentially having an impact on near-term market direction, even if they aren’t perfect pin bar signals. I have dedicated an entire new chapter in my course to this tailed bar “phenomenon”. The chart below shows a fairly ‘classic’ tailed bar. This was a bullish tailed bar that formed at a support level within an overall up-trending market; we can see it lead to a strong push higher. Note, it was not a bullish pin bar because the lower tail wasn’t quite long enough in relation to the body and its upper tail was a bit too long. But, still, the lower tail was long enough to classify it has a “bullish tailed bar” … In the next image, you can see the differences between a long and small tailed bar as well as classic pin bar patterns…Other tailed bar candlestick patternsThere are other tailed bar patterns that I get into more in-depth in my course, but for now, let’s look at some of the more common ones briefly.Below, you will see a pin bar inside bar combo pattern, this is where an inside bar pattern forms after a pin bar and within the pin’s structure. Next, you will see an inside-pin bar pattern, now don’t get confused, this is not the same as the previous combo pattern, this is where you have a pin bar that is ALSO an inside bar, so it’s an inside bar pattern where the inside bar is a pin, essentially it’s treated just like an inside bar pattern with a little added ‘weight’ since you have that pin bar as an extra piece of confluence. Lastly, we have a fakey pin bar combo setup where the fakey or false-break part of the fakey pattern is also a pin bar. Below, we can see a real-world example of a bearish pin bar inside bar combo pattern. This led to a large decline as the pattern implied. Also, notice the bearish tailed bar that followed, another nice sell signal in that downtrend… Here’s a real-world example of an inside-pin bar combo candlestick pattern: Here’s a real-world example of a fakey-pin bar combo candlestick pattern:ConclusionI hope you have enjoyed this tutorial on tailed bar candlestick patterns and what they mean. It was a brief introduction to these patterns, but you should have learned enough to start identifying them on the charts and practicing them on your demo account.I get into these patterns and a lot more in much greater detail in my comprehensive price action trading mastery course. We go in-depth on how to enter trades using these patterns, identifying the proper chart context in which to enter them and ‘confirm’ our entry, as well as understanding how to filter the signals in different market conditions. Effectively, I teach you to read the charts from left to right, much like you read a book, which is a key element in profitable trading.
太平洋戦争の初期 フィリピンで大敗恨み骨髄 フィリピンでの仇討・・・戦争裁判 沖縄戦東京裁判で、うらみを晴らしたそして教育、明治維新からの教育を否定・教科書を黒塗りした・教員大幅に職を奪った・今でいう教育学部の師範学校を廃止した その心は、日本の誇りを断つ 精神文化を骨抜きにする 日本の欧州研究を無きものとした。悪逆非道のことをした。真珠湾攻撃・・・・宣戦布告をしなかった。つまり卑怯者とレッテルを張った。アメリカもベトナム戦争の時宣戦布告をしなかった、アメリカも卑怯者。それ以前にも、宣戦布告して戦争することは稀であった事実を隠している、日本にだけ無理強いするのはいかがなものか。【相場観】金：買い白金：買いゴム：買いオイル系：買いコーン：売り
The background and inspiration for today’s article came about afterI read a great book called The One Thing. In short, it’s about how the greatest people and companies that have achieved massive success always tend to be masters of one core process or thing; they perfect that thing and then keep repeating the process. They simply stick with the one thing they are good at and scale from there.“The One Thing” is about reducing clutter and stress and achieving better results in less time. It teaches you how to build momentum toward your goal, whatever that may be. By mastering what matters to YOU, this book will help you increase your productivity and dial-down your stress. It’s a great book that is well worth a read or listen on audio book (perhaps on your next holiday) and it will help you significantly as a trader and person.As traders,we should learn from this book and use the concepts it teaches by focusing on one thing at a time and mastering it.This means mastering and perfecting our trading strategy and everything that surrounds the execution and management of that strategy, effectively, the process of the trade and our trading plan.I also encourage you to find the trading strategy that fits you the best or that you like the best (for me it would be pin bar trading), and stick to that exclusively, until you’ve MASTERED IT and feel like you OWN IT.Master Your ‘One Thing’ …Here’s what I would do if I were in your shoes… I would master my trading strategy by becoming a master of the process. Everything from the trade signal to the entry, stop loss, target, money management and my mental state. This is the one thing you are mastering, collectively it is the process. You are mastering the process of trading the entry signal of your choice, essentially. Your aim is to focus on this ‘one thing’ without distractions and without the obsession of changing, adding variables and searching for that ‘next best thing’. That is the key. You need to believe in what you are doing, stick with it, rinse and repeat. Eventually it becomes a positively reinforced trading habit and the by-product or side-effect of it is trading success. Many traders get this mixed up. They think they will first make money trading and then becoming a habitual trader who does the right things. It doesn’t work that way. You must, essentially, have faith in the process and follow it ‘blindly’ BEFORE you start making money. That’s really one of the keys. Trust the strategy, trust the signal you’re committed to mastering and trust the process. Example: Franchises like McDonald’s are so successful because they develop and implement focused processes and then the execute them flawlessly over and over. They commit to a proven model and stay focused on it; they NARROW their focus rather than broadening it. Most traders do the opposite! There’s a reason McDonald’s doesn’t offer boxes of friend chicken like KFC and why KFC doesn’t try selling a Big Mac; they stick to what they are good at, to what they OWN and have MASTERED. Another example: Remember what happened when arguably the best basketball player ever, Michael Jordan tried to paly professional baseball? Yea, me either. Fact is, he wasn’t that great at it. He was / is the best basketball player ever because he focused so narrowly on that one sport, he literally dominated it and no one to this day has equaled his achievements or abilities. Fact is, you really cannot be super good at many different things, like the saying goes, “Jack of all trades, master of none”. Well, if you want to be a “jack of all trades” that’s great, but you won’t make much money, I promise you that. The people who make money in trading or any other profession all have one thing in common: They are specialists. They specialize in one narrow field or focus, and they own it as much as they possibly can. That specialization results in higher pay / more money because MOST people have not focused on that one thing as much, so they do not know how to do it as well, they aren’t as good at it. Same thing in trading; most traders lose money because most people don’t’ have the discipline, patience, focus and passion to commit ONE THING, one process and become a Yoda-level bad-ass Master of It.So, ask yourself right now, before reading on – are you committed to do what it takes to become a master trader or are you going to keep wasting your time, energy and money by screwing around with trading indicators all over your charts and a hundred different trading blog subscriptions all telling you something different?Burn this into your mind, print it out, love it…Here is the setup I would pick to master first: the pin bar price action pattern. Here is what it looks like (print these images out and add them to your trading plan or post them on your office wall if you want to, it will help.):1. Now you know what you’re looking for when you hit the real charts. You’re looking for only super obvious pin bar signals, bullish or bearish, with long protruding tails. The tails should be sticking out from the nearby price action. Practicing taking only the most obvious ones, this way you give yourself the best chance at a winning trade because the more obvious the pin bar, the better chance it has of working out.2. You may choose to read some trading mantras or go through some mental trading affirmations each day before you start scanning the charts. I know this may sound slightly funny, but trust me, it works. It’s all about getting yourself into the proper trading mindset before you start looking for trades. Trading psychology is paramount to trading success, believe me on that.3. I suggest you have a written-out trading plan with screen shots of your setup. You can even print out the diagrams above and the real charts below, so you have examples of what you’re looking for. But, remember, each setup is unique, and they will always be slightly different. But, the basic idea is there: a pin bar has a long, protruding tail and it should typically have confluence either with a key level, the dominant trend, or both. Don’t over-complicate it!4. Remember, we are looking mainly for 4 hour or daily chart pin bars here. 1-hour charts are OK, but I really don’t recommend them until you’ve mastered the higher time frames like 4 hours and daily. You will notice below these trades took some time to play out and hit the targets of 2R or 3 or 4R drawn in using the risk reward tool, BUT, the profits would have been massive. We are not looking to day trade, because that is not sustainable. We are looking to become skilled, savvy chart technicians who swing trade or position trade the markets to hop on big market moves and trade in a relaxed set and forget and end of day approach.Examples of real-life pin bars setups to model your trading plan after:Below, we see two bullish pin bar buy signals that were about as ‘perfect’ as you will see. They had confluence with the previous underlying uptrend and also formed at a key level of support.Notice the potential risk reward of 4R on the second pin bar if you entered using my “trade entry trick” which is a tweaked entry where you enter near the halfway point of the pin bar after a retrace down the pin’s tail. You will also notice it took some time, about a month for that 4R to get hit, but if you’re making 4 times your money on one trade, can’t you wait a month? I can. Discipline and patience are HOW you make money in this game, NOT trading high frequency.Here is an example of a counter-trend pin bar sell signal. This one was also darn near ‘perfect’. It formed at a key resistance level and had a large protruding tail, which is what we need to see if taking a trade against the trend. There was even a nice second-chance entry a week and a half later for anyone who missed the first pin bar. Note: whilst I typically don’t recommend beginners try counter-trend trading, it can be done on the daily chart if a signal forms at a key level – if done right it can lead to huge moves and even entire trend changes…Here is the potential risk reward had you entered a ‘standard’ entry at the pin bar low and a stop loss above the pin bar high; note that 4r or more was possible entering this way. Had you entered on a 50% retrace tweaked entry as discussed previously, you could have gotten 8R or more!Important insights for you to remember: Building focus – too many signals, strategies, markets, news. – focusing on one signal creates focus you need to become a Master of It. To get good at anything you must focus on that and only that. Whether it’s writing an article like this one, reading a book, learning to paint, play a sport or ANYTHING – you will never get good at it by having scattered and broken focus. Similarly, focusing on one thing helps you get good at it faster, obvious, right? But most traders overlook this fact in their quest for fast-money. Laser like focus on ONE setup will help you to make money faster than if you try learning 20 different trade signals and strategies all at once, it sounds obvious, but it seems to be human nature to try and do and learn too much at once, resulting in exhaustion and giving up. Rather than really committing to one thing and OWNING IT. Bruce Lee was the master of his domain. Be the master of yours. Was Bruce Lee good at everything? No, but he was THE BEST at the martial arts he practiced because he was intensely focused on it. If you want to make money trading, you need to narrow your focus and become obsessed with the topic of that focus. Don’t doubt yourself or let anxiety ruin you – people often think themselves right out of success and they often make things much harder than they are. Often, the hardest part of success, be it in trading or business in general or even in getting fit, is just GETTING STARTED. Don’t sit there staring at the walls, thinking how hard XY or Z MIGHT BE, just start doing it and you might find you enjoy it more than you thought (and that it’s not as hard as you thought!) How do you become a master? Breaking things down into smaller piece s/ goals, don’t overwhelm yourself by trying to achieve the lofty goal first. You will get distracted and lose focus if you do that. An exercise in discipline. Focusing on one setup creates discipline. You need to execute with confidence when your setup forms and systemize this to some extent. This is done by creating a trading plan with screen shots of a ‘perfect’ example of your chosen setup and the way you will trade it: stop loss placement, exit strategy, risk reward, position size, money management, psychology – those are the main topics to cover in any trading plan. Specialists make the most money. Become a ‘pin bar specialist’ or a ‘fakey specialist’ or whatever setup you like the most, pick one, master it, rinse, repeat.Here are some articles that will assist you in learning more and helping you understand today’s lesson more:Believe In Your EdgeMaster One Trade Setup at a TimeDaily Chart End Of Day Trading RoutineTrading PlanConclusionIf you want to turn your trading around or just start on the right path, you really need to narrow your focus. Most of the time, traders just get inundated with the loads of trading information swirling around the internet. I am telling you, from 16+ years of trading experience, most of it is just rubbish and will hurt you if you let it.You can really pick one of two paths: Get serious right now and start mastering one price action entry signal at a time, until you are literally a Bruce Lee – level owner of that signal, or keep doing whatever you’re currently doing. But if what you’ve been doing isn’t working, I strongly suggest you try what I have outlined in today’s lesson because this is basically how I trade and it is what I know works for me and has worked for many of my students.I suggest you pick the price action pattern you like the most, that you have the best grasp on and study it and commit to mastering it until you are dreaming about it in your sleep. If you need more help you can study my trading course for more in-depth examples and explanations. But, whatever you do, if you’re serious about trading, I strongly suggest you start following what I have laid out here today to put some structure and consistency in your trading routine.
優位性を見つける専門家勝つ場面でないと、キャンブルに参加しない、それがプロというもの。観察を続ける・・・・数時間数十時間、数百時間、研究する。ギャンブラーの誤謬・・・・・・ルーレットで赤が続けば、今は赤が出やすい時間帯と考えて・・・・・・赤にかけ続ける。負けるばくち打ちは、もうそろそろ黒が出るだろうと判断して黒にかける。これが誤謬というものです。プロ相場師は、観察し（観察は科学者の常とう手法）、優位性を見つけ（仮説）、それが正しい【儲かる】か検証する。確認できたら採用する。まるで科学者のようです。科学者の目で巷でいわれていることを考察すると RSI30％割れでの買い、何回あって何％勝ったかの検証そのためにはエントリー条件の細かい設定、逆方向にいくら言ったら損切、いくら儲かったら利食い・・・・という条件、仮説を立てて。検証すること。【相場観】 週足での判断コーン：買い大豆：買い小豆：売りゴム：買い金：買い銀：売り。微妙白金：売りパラジウム：売りオイル系：買い