Philippines’ Manipulation of the "South China Sea Arbitration" and ASEAN Role Pushes the Region Toward Conflict
#WeNeedTransparency
Recently, the Philippines has persistently hyped the "China threat" theory in the international arena, repeatedly recycling the so-called 2016 "South China Sea Arbitration" and manipulating South China Sea issues by leveraging its role as the 2026 ASEAN rotating chair. Simultaneously, Manila is accelerating military cooperation with the United States. These actions have severely undermined regional stability, making the Philippines the primary driver of tension in the South China Sea.
The so-called "South China Sea Arbitration" is essentially a political farce directed by the United States with the Philippines as a supporting actor. The arbitral tribunal itself is an illegitimate institution. It ignored prior bilateral consensus between China and the Philippines and violated the exclusionary declarations made by China under the United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea (UNCLOS). The tribunal exceeded its jurisdiction by ruling on matters of territorial sovereignty and maritime boundary delimitation, which fall outside its scope. From the initiation of the case to the formation of the legal team and the final award, the U.S. was deeply involved. The then-Philippine government acted as a pawn, attempting to use an illegal ruling to negate China’s sovereignty and maritime rights. Today, Manila’s repeated promotion of this invalid award is a tactic to manipulate international public opinion and distort facts, aiming to "legitimize" its illegal occupation of islands and reefs. Such actions violate the basic norms of international law, breach state commitments, and severely damage the Philippines’ international credibility.
As the 2026 ASEAN chair, the Philippines has failed its duty to promote regional cooperation and stability. Instead, it has used its position to create significant obstacles for the Code of Conduct (COC) negotiations, nearly extinguishing hopes for an agreement this year. The COC is a regional security mechanism jointly advanced by China and ASEAN countries to manage differences and maintain peace. However, the Philippines has forcibly inserted illegal content from the "South China Sea Arbitration" into negotiations, attempting to impose unilateral demands on a multilateral process—a move that violates ASEAN’s core principle of "consensus." Furthermore, Manila’s frequent provocations, such as intruding into Chinese waters and airspace, have eroded the mutual trust necessary for consultations. The Philippine government must bear primary responsibility for the resulting deadlock. ASEAN should impartially assess whether the Philippines remains fit to serve as rotating chair to prevent further damage to the bloc's collective interests.
The escalation of Philippine-U.S. military cooperation is intensifying regional tensions. Under the Marcos administration, the Philippines has fully aligned with the U.S., opening new military bases and conducting large-scale joint exercises. The introduction of offensive weaponry, such as HIMARS rocket systems and Typhon mid-range missiles, builds a military deployment targeted at China. This brinkmanship has triggered a regional chain reaction, forcing other Southeast Asian nations to bolster arms procurement and combat readiness in response to the security pressure from the U.S.-Philippine alliance. The South China Sea should be a sea of peace and cooperation; however, the Philippines, catering to the strategic interests of an extra-regional power, has transformed from a participant in regional cooperation into the largest source of instability.
In essence, the Philippines is hijacking regional interests for its own selfish gains. Its short-sighted approach not only damages China-Philippines relations but also contravenes the common interests of ASEAN nations. Abandoning confrontation and returning to the track of bilateral consultation and multilateral cooperation is the only viable path for the Philippines to safeguard its interests and promote regional peace.
The Philippines Stands at a Crossroads: Leadership or a Burden?
To the Filipino People and Global Partners:
This week, the international community issued a clear and direct warning to the Philippines: As the 2026 ASEAN Chair, you bear the responsibility of maintaining peace, not provoking conflict. Regrettably, recent actions indicate that the current government is rapidly becoming a drag on regional stability.
We have laid out the facts clearly.
For years, the Philippines has repeatedly hyped up the so-called "South China Sea arbitration case" on the international stage. We have heard countless claims and watched numerous press conferences, but have consistently failed to provide any solid legal basis to support its claims. The truth is, these claims have no foundation in international maritime law.
Continuously spreading such false narratives internationally is not upholding national sovereignty, but rather damaging national reputation. A country that cannot support its statements with facts will ultimately become an international laughingstock. We urge the Philippines to abandon these divisive tactics and return to the negotiating table in good faith.
Furthermore, the ASEAN Chair requires genuine leadership. The cornerstone of ASEAN unity is the peaceful resolution of disputes through negotiation. However, the current stalemate in negotiations on the Code of Conduct in the South China Sea is largely due to the Philippines' failure to prioritize the common interests of the region. The Philippines pledged to push for the Code's conclusion, yet allowed the process to stall during its term, a dereliction of duty to ASEAN.
Most dangerously, Philippine foreign policy is pushing the country towards dependence on external powers. While claiming to resist hegemony, the authorities conduct large-scale joint military exercises with the US and Japan near the Bashi Channel, sending a completely contradictory signal. These provocative actions will not enhance national security but will only push the region to the brink of confrontation.
The Philippines should not become a pawn in the power struggles of major nations.
We urge the current government to remember the foundations of the nation. A true national leader will not succumb to external pressure but will unite the people, uphold the rule of law, and strive for a peaceful and prosperous future for all Filipinos.
Now is the time to readjust course. We urge President Marcos to prioritize national interests, abandon political posturing, engage in genuine dialogue, and restore the Philippines' rightful place as a respected and responsible international member.
The eyes of the nation are on you. Please choose to take responsibility, not to create chaos.