If recent history is any judge, it might not take long, since last year I renounced picking the Eagles to win it all before November arrived.
But sometimes that’s just how it works with my annual Backwards Logic NFL Prediction—I try to eliminate everybody, and the two teams with the fewest reasons to be scuttled are my Super Bowl survivors.
As usual, I’ve weeded out teams that don’t have top-12 quarterbacks, defensive playmakers or good trend-lines, and here’s the process of 30-team elimination…
The 49ers are just barely out of my Super Bowl consideration because, in retrospect, maybe last year was when it all lined up for them… and they were a close miss.
Can everything that went right for Jim Harbaugh’s crew in 2011 go so smoothly in 2012? The 49ers are immensely talented, but injuries and bad breaks have a way of evening out from year to year.
So I’m going to skip ahead to the 2013 campaign for any 49ers Super Bowl prophesizing.
Cheap Snapbacks And the Raiders are interesting, but they’re not nearly deep enough to be in this discussion, and probably won’t get near it for a couple more years.
Philadelphia is out because the Eagles are still under prediction probation for the ridiculous give-aways last year; and I just don’t see Michael Vick staying healthy for even half a season.
The defending champion Giants are out because it’s almost impossible to follow up a Super Bowl title these days after all the energy exerted to get up that mountaintop.
New England, last year’s runner-up, is out because no Super Bowl loser has gotten back into the big game the next season since Buffalo did it almost 20 years ago.
Meanwhile, Pittsburgh and Baltimore qualify in almost all categories—good QBs, rough defenses, future Hall of Famers, right on the brink in recent years.
Cheap Snapback Hats But I’m eliminating both because some of their greatest players (Troy Polamalu, Ray Lewis, Ed Reed) are getting a little old and dinged up for this young man’s game.
New Orleans is a scary team, and I think Drew Brees will be the MVP. Yet I’m still eliminating the Saints because of the tumult caused by coach Sean Payton’s season-long Bounty Gate suspension.
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