Natural rubber chemicals
futures contract of September 8 in early trading in Shanghai rose
1.08%. Recent days China's Central Bank is expected to increase the
reserve, but investors speculated tightening cycle will be discontinued
soon. Heavy rains occurred in parts of Southeast Asia weather, and
estimated data on supply and demand shows that gaps remain. Tire
business increased procurement, rising futures may speed up.
8th, New York Mercantile futures exchanges July crude contract rose $
1.65 or clearing price 100.74 dollars per barrel. United States energy
information Association said last week the United States inventory
reduction of 4.85 million tons of crude oil, creates the largest decline
since December 2010, 2.21 million barrels while gasoline inventories
growth, exceeds estimates that reduces the supply is still displayed in
the inventory data. OPEC talks in Vienna, the Ministers failed to yield
consensus reached. Saudi Arabia alone will raise production, Member
States of the coordination of International Energy Agency may release
emergency oil reserves, but the market remained nervous about OPEC's
unexpected results, oil prices rebounded sharply. Rise of crude oil,
would increase the cost of synthetic rubber, good for the price of
natural rubber.
The weather conditions, Thailand natural rubber-producing area,
Thailand in the rain in the Northern, southern cloudy;
Malaysia-producing areas, rain in southern Malay Peninsula, Kalimantan
Island heavy rain in the North, rainfall will affect the tapping
production; Indonesia-producing area, Sumatra rain north of the equator,
Sumatra cloudy South of the equator, South Kalimantan Island rain;
production area in China, cloudy, Hainan, Yunnan rain weather.
Asian stock markets, the previous trading day, falling prices. Buyers
in the market trading hot, while seeking low buying, demand worries
also depress market conditions. Thailand South one dealer said buyers
need rubber, purchasing volume considerably. July/August shipment of
Thailand, 3rd Bacon rubber RSS3 522 cents per kg. 9th Malaysia rubber
SMR20 July FOB official quote morning fell as much as.
Otherwise, the international rubber study group said this year's
expected growth in demand for natural rubber 4.7%, China and India
rising auto sales, growth in demand from 10.7 million tons to 11.2
million tonnes. Recently, Association of natural rubber producing
countries next day rubber yield prediction for the year 2011, from the
growth of 5.8% to 4.9%, the Association said, Member States may produce
9.93 million tons of rubber. Member States yield to global supplies of
natural rubber and yield of 92%. Comparison of two data reflect, this
year's rubber supply still does not fully meet the requirements, and
after production of the previous year, inventories more nervous. Tight
supply situation will be a long-term support prices.
In General, commodity markets are likely to sustain an upward trend.
China monthly economic data to be released, introduced austerity policy
would follow. Banks are not yet taking initiatives to raise interest
rates, are expected to be higher in recent days reserve. Stock markets
plunged, decline in many commodity prices, however, due to the pace of
interest rate suddenly come to a halt, investors speculated austerity
policies have tended to end, economic growth has been the urgent
situation of the Government concerned. United States weaker economic
performance, is extended by the Fed's low interest rate cycle, even in
the absence of there new quantitative easing, Fed's firm attitude would
encourage risk sentiment. Rubber market benefit. Main in rubber area,
Thailand began to rain, Malaysia there is heavy rain, and the weather in
recent days have improved, tapping production is affected. Thailand
rainfall flood in particular concerns will prevent the decline in
prices. In fact, tire companies have gone to the spot market purchases.
Comparison between production and demand data indicate that gap between
supply and demand will still exist, not to excess. Look, price increases
will gradually accelerate.
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