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Economists reopened the expectations of US economic growth, as government new stimulus measures, vaccination acceleration, and corporate restrictions and other factors have brought greater boost for economic activities.
According to the latest economist monthly investigation, the expected increase in the growth rate of GDP in the second quarter has increased by more than one percentage point, reaching 8.1%.
Economists have raised the spending forecast for consumers in every quarter of this year, reflecting the demand release of consumers will promote the most powerful economic growth since 1984 in 1984.
According to the media on the survey of 71 economists, 6% of unemployment rates are expected to be less than 5% this year during April 1st to 8th. After the 2007-09 economic recession, the unemployment rate spent more than six years to reach this milestone.
Michael Gapen, Chief American Economist, Barclays, said: "We are very optimistic this year." He increased the growth of GDP growth in the second quarter to 11.5%, and will also increase the growth of growth in the second half of the year to reflect US President Biden March. The impact of $ 1.9 trillion a package of 1.9 trillion dollars signed in mid-term. The scale of the bailout program is bigger than Baclai.
The United States has an average of 3 million people a day, and the states are increasingly relaxing commercial restrictions. The population is the first in California, which is the first to take the lead in taking severe blockade measures last year. This month will allow most of the enterprises or all reopenned.
At the same time, a series of economic data, including March employment reports, are far better than expectations of economists.
Since the beginning of this year, two rounds have been issued directly to the bailout check, so that many American wallets have drums. At the same time, unemployed has been supplemented with unemployment benefits to make up for income loss.
Economists expect consumer spending in the first three months of this year to achieve a 7.5% annual growth, higher than the 5.1% predicted number of surveys in March. The momentum of expenditures will not stop this. The growth rate of consumer spending in this quarter is expected to accelerate further to 8.4%.
Inflation indicators are expected to rise shortly in the second quarter, which is largely due to a brighter impact of the base effect. A key inflation indicator for the Fed monitor - Personal consumption expenditure price index is expected to reach 2.6% year-on-year, which is higher than the US Fed 2%, which is mainly due to the low data on the initial period of big epidemics last year.
The so-called "core" inflation indicators of food and energy are excluded, and it is expected to rise to 2.2% in the second quarter, then fell back to 2% during the end of 2022, or slightly lower than this threshold.
The expected demand release, coupled with nearly 5 trillion US dollars in government baking measures, will result in a sharp increase in inflation, still a heavily arguing.