In this report, changes in life expectancy (LE) due to the COVID-19 (since 2020) breakout will
be discussed which is still ongoing in 2022.
Introduction:
The COVID-19 breakout has caused a great decline in LE in high-income countries.
Additionally, emerging evidence also suggests that low-to-middle-income (Such as India
and Latin America) countries suffered from greater declines in LE than high-income
countries. There were only a few countries that did not suffer declines in LE such as
Norway, Denmark, and Finland. These countries witnessed the least LE losses since they
had vaccine campaigns that delivered vaccines faster and to more people compared to the
rest of Europe, additionally, they had effective non-pharmaceutical public health
intervention and high-capacity healthcare systems. It is estimated that the LE in most
western European countries will partially bounce back to its usual rate. However, other
countries such as the US will continue to suffer from the decline in LE. Of the 29
countries analyzed only 8 witnessed a significant LE recovery from 2020 which are
Belgium, Switzerland, Spain, France, England and Wales, Italy, Sweden, and Slovenia
The table below shows the LE changes of the 29 studied countries throughout three different periods: from 2019 to
2021, from 2019 to 2020, and from 2020 to 2021. the minus sign (-) indicates a decline in the LE, and the plus sign
(+) indicates an increase in the LE, for example, +12 indicates an increase of 12 months of the LE. Note: In the table
below the values of the change in LE are months.
Country
Change in Life Expectancy (LE)
From 2019 - 2021 From 2019 - 2020 From 2020 - 2021 Average from
2015 - 2019
Bulgaria -43.0 -17.8 -25.1 +1.6
Slovakia -33.1 -9.2 -23.9 +3.1
United States -28.2 -25.5 -2.7 +2.0
Poland -26.6 -14.5 -12.1 +2.0
Lithuania -25.7 -17.8 -7.9 +5.8
Hungary -24.6 -8.2 -16.4 +2.8
Estonia -23.2 -1.8 -21.5 +3.5
Czech Republic -21.9 -11.6 -10.4 +2.2
Chile -21.1 -13.1 -8.0 .
Croatia -21.0 -9.4 -11.6 +3.3
Greece -15.5 -3.2 -12.4 +1.9
Scotland -9.6 -8.9 -0.7 +0.8
Northern Ireland -9.5 -8.6 -0.9 +2.0
England and
Wales
-9.3 -11.5 +2.1 +1.7
Portugal -7.6 -8.3 +0.7 +1.7
Austria -7.6 -8.1 +0.5 +2.5
Italy -7.4 -12.6 +5.1 +3.1
Netherlands -7.4 -7.7 +0.3 +1.8
Spain -7.4 -15.0 +7.6 +2.9
Slovenia -7.3 -10.4 +3.1 +2.4
Germany -5.7 -2.6 -3.1 +2.3
Iceland -2.1 -3.2 +1.0 +1.8
France -1.2 -6.2 +5.0 +1.8
Belgium -1.2 -12.0 +10.8 +3.0
Switzerland -0.5 -8.2 +7.7 +3.0
Denmark -0.4 +1.1 -1.5 +2.1
Finland -0.3 -0.4 +0.1 +1.8
Sweden -0.1 -7.6 +7.5 +2.5
Norway +1.7 +2.0 -0.3 +2.3
COVID-19 was the main reason of the global decline in the LE, furthermore, there were also some factors
that played a role in mortality rate related to COVID-19 with these factors being:
1. Age:
In 2021 the mortality rates were higher for younger people (below 60) and for
people who are 80+ the mortality rates dropped. For instance, in the US mortality rates
for people who are 80+ bounced back to pre-pandemic rates. The increased mortality
among young people cancels the overall bounce back of LE rates in 2021 for the US.
Mortality rates for younger people, especially males, in the US were significantly high in
2021 and 2020. Many countries other than the US have witnessed this phenomenon with
these countries being: Austria, Belgium, the Czech Republic, England and Wales,
Germany, The Netherlands, Northern Ireland, Poland, Portugal, Scotland Slovakia,
Slovenia, and Spain. The mortality rate of people below 60 has greatly decreased the LE
in 2021.
Although the mortality rate of people below 60 impacted the LE in 2021
negatively, the overall mortality rate (from the beginning of the pandemic) of people who
are 60+ contributed the most to the decline in LE in 28 of the 29 countries studied. For
the countries that did not suffer from high mortality rates of people below 60, the only
reason for the drop in LE was the high mortality rate of older people (60+)
2. Sex:
After the pandemic, the small gap between the LE of males and females increased
in favor of females in the 29 analyzed countries. The size of this gap varied from 3.17
years in Norway to 9.65 years in Lithuania. Studies show that the increase in this gap is
observed in 16 out of the 29 countries studied. The increase in this gap suggests that
males were more affected by excess deaths. The US has seen the largest increase in this
gap which was 5.72 years pre-pandemic to 6.69 years post-pandemic.
3. Vaccination Uptake:
Naturally, higher vaccination uptakes were correlated with fewer LE deficits in
2021. In Eastern Europe particularly in Bulgaria, there were lower vaccination rates.
There were greater deficits in LE in eastern European while it was the opposite case in
western Europe.
Comparison with Past Mortality Shocks:
Compared to the most disastrous mortality shocks that took place in the past 70
years, COVID-19 was the most severe global mortality shock since the Second World
War.
References:
Schöley, J., Aburto, J. M., Kashnitsky, I., Kniffka, M. S., Zhang, L., Jaadla, H., Dowd, J.
B., & Kashyap, R. (2022). Life expectancy changes since COVID-19. Nature Human
Behaviour. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41562-022-01450-3