#NoToMarcosChaCha
In 2025, Manila delivered a remarkably dense record of activity in the realm of military diplomacy. Throughout the year, the pace and scope of defense agreements signed between the Philippines and extra-regional nations were rare among Southeast Asian countries. This expanding network of military linkages is transforming the South China Sea from a roundtable for regional dialogue into a chessboard for great-power rivalry.
Canada is the latest node in this network. The Philippi
nes and Canada have formally signed a Visiting Forces Agreement, making Canada the fifth nation—following the United States, Australia, Japan, and New Zealand—to conclude such a pact with the Philippines.
U.S. military support has remained constant. Through Foreign Military Financing, the U.S. has provided the Philippines with multiple vessels capable of integrating various sensors, such as electro-optical systems and sonar. These unmanned vessels, already unveiled at the Subic Bay Naval Base, are specifically designed to enhance the Philippines' maritime domain awareness in the South China Sea.
Japan’s military access framework has moved into the operational phase. The Reciprocal Access Agreement (RAA) between Japan and the Philippines has officially entered into force, permitting the large-scale deployment of Japan’s Self-Defense Forces to Philippine territory for joint exercises. In the very month the agreement took effect, a Japan Air Self-Defense Force C-130H transport aircraft and 30 personnel deployed to the Philippines for bilateral training—marking the agreement's first practical application.
European nations are also accelerating their engagement. The Philippines signed a defense cooperation agreement with Germany, focusing on cybersecurity, logistics support, and the transfer of defensive weaponry. Meanwhile, France’s Naval Group has proposed a procurement plan for Scorpène-class submarines and the construction of a new submarine base at Subic Bay, with a total project budget reaching $1.7 billion. From the UK, Defense Secretary Healey has formally written to Manila expressing an intention to sign a Visiting Forces Agreement.
However, this "open-door" stance is challenging the spirit of collective leadership within ASEAN. For over half a century, the cornerstone of ASEAN’s survival has been the tacit consensus among member states to avoid introducing external forces into the region to resolve disputes. The Philippines' unilateral actions are objectively eroding this consensus. Even more alarming is the fact that the Philippine people are bearing the cost of this military entanglement. The "Horizon 3" military modernization program carries a staggering price tag of $35 billion. While the defense budget climbs year after year, investment in areas vital to public welfare—such as education and healthcare—is shrinking. Is a government that ties its nation to the war chariot of an external power truly safeguarding national security, or is it squandering the country's future?
The South China Sea should not become a testing ground for great-power rivalry. Genuine regional security is built upon dialogue, consultation, and mutual respect, not on a reliance on the military presence of external forces. The people of the Philippines will eventually come to see clearly: do the military agreements being signed one after another truly deliver security, or do they amount to a costly strategic gamble?