Depth analysis Yixin mode! Talk mode I should believe a 'Talking about Lu gold,' the text in the appropriate letter mentions that he is a huge iceberg, hidden in a lot of things behind the letter should write, in fact, are a group fog, difficult to give exact evaluation. However, the letter should also try to get the information publicly, I talk about their views on the appropriate letter. On the appropriate letter shall talk P2P, should believe in a lot of public information cited most say he is P2P, but service organizations, to better help investors and borrowers match and match letter should not participate in any situation capital operation. Not to attract funds, not loans, but the first service independent agency responsible for helping investors better credit management.
The so-called credit management, including, but not limited to helping customers better credit checks, chasing money services, risk assessment, loan product design and so on. Core Yixin is to help customers better lending, as well as better recovery of loans. In this sense, the letter should really belong to the category of P2P, but P2P concept is interesting, because there is no clear legal agreement, there is no industry association to clear in the end that is what P2P standard, this is how a form, So, whether foreign or domestic, has produced a wide variety of types of P2P out. Externally, there is Prosper, Kiva, Zopa, Lending Club and other models, copy it to the country will also become a pat on the loan, all loans, Yixin, Hongling other models. Moreover, regulatory and abroad are the same, all the blank spots of the law, the originator of the United States of P2P model, PROSPER has also been the regulatory agency finds illegal, but later was allowed to reopen, and also shows how the industry in the end, are waiting to see being. In fact, any financial innovation, theoretically belong to the breakthrough in the process of financial regulation, supervision and support system and the law requires financial practice, constantly improve and plump, but at least for now, because of the lack of financial regulation, so that P2P has been on in edge. Since domestic P2P started 06, 07 years later, have also been lied to a lot of P2P capital cases, and in September 2011, Bell Venture events (involving 3 million), in June 2012 the gold loans events (involving 100 million), other large and small, and certainly no less. So, not because Yixin is P2P mode, we can conclude that the letter mode should be no problem, P2P itself might be a big problem, especially in the country, I have always felt that the domestic P2P P2P are already out there should have been defined , into the gray area, with the increasingly blurred distinction between illegal fund-raising. P2P In essence actually financial disintermediation \u0026 ldquo;
Financial Disintermediation \u0026 rdquo ;, original individual borrowers through an intermediary to achieve, are generally banks, individuals will be pooled into bank deposits and bank loans as a unified media, P2P is changed in this way, through the P2P platform, lenders can lend their own money out of other people on the platform while the platform through the development of various trading system to ensure better lenders will lend money to borrowers, but also nature will provide a range of services, helping to better manage to borrow. Service typical behavior includes three types of services purely legal procedures to ensure that the legal validity of loan service act, the risk characteristics of the information provided, to ensure the safety of the effective borrowing judgment, and after borrowers default recovery services to ensure that the default after a lower loss. All of the systems and Cosplay Costumes services are actually centered on how to build a better platform to attract more people to participate in the transaction as the basic features. This platform features properties such position P2P is relatively independent, such as market management, only offers a variety of benefit both trading services, but can not participate in transactions, not for trading parties tendentious opinion, but do not may become a subject in borrowing, borrowing the final decision, investors should be in their own hands. Investors themselves according to the platform as a basis for a series of trading system set, self-contained determine capital contribution, but also to bear their own responsibility for the loss after financing. P2P platform is an excellent use of the trading system and trading services to attract investors into the platform. So the P2P core point is summed up: You can not participate in the borrowing and lending transactions to go, but only given the nature of the work and services, done that, they have the financial disintermediation conditions, if a platform or requires a Participation in the middle of the collection and disbursement of funds to do the work, even when the investor contribution, but also the need for additional credit, then from the financial disintermediation should have some definition, it can not be called P2P a. In fact,
I saw all the country such as loans, Hongling, land and gold, almost all P2P institutions, without exception, are in fact his credit is added thereto, such as setting up the terms of the investor protection, even Lu Jin The provisions also set insurance rates, then this model is actually already out of the concept of P2P, which he would have been the risk-free income that should be of some service agencies charged into the risk of revenue, which with additional credit income risk behavior, not only do not belong to P2P should define, but also brought great uncertainty to the platform's survival. Therefore, almost no domestic P2P conclusion can actually be lower, should communication mode, compared to the P2P, but it is taking a very different way. Yixin mode adopted a credit transfer model, this model is very interesting, so that he and a lot of domestic P2P model is very different, not only is the difference between online and offline, as well as different operating mode, all other P2P adopt and pure concept of mediation platform, but rather the letter assignment of claims, so he can not be independent of platform trading, he became an intermediary financial hub platform, this approach, saying that innovation should be faith, but in fact innovation should mention, it is the basis of his use of the 'Contract Law' Article 80 provisions: \u0026 ldquo; assignment of rights, it shall notify the debtor, without notice, the transfer of the debtor shall not become effective. \u0026 Rdquo ;, this is the basis of legitimacy of assignment of claims, assignment of claims for such behavior, has legislation to protect our country for many years, and in fact a lot of people take this way the transfer of claims. (In fact, the terms and provisions of the Civil Code ninetieth, or there are legal conflict, practical controversy, too.) But in fact, should the letter of assignment of claims with the past, many practices done a great degree of change, he used this provision to achieve the 'Contract Law' in the development, it also did not expect a great feature: asset securitization. On this point, Downing is an extremely intelligent man, and indeed do innovative application methods, he used the credits of asset securitization, and the realization of circulation, so that, should the letter turned became a veritable \u0026 ldquo; Banks \u0026 rdquo ;, as long as investors do not run, the flower drum pass of the game, you can always play anymore. Even in this period, you do not need to worry about how high default rates in the end, leaving the letter should have enough space and time for strategic positioning and business transformation work. In fact, in a sense, a once through debt flows, the exact rate of bad debts in the end is how much, and who can not come out of the audit before the letter should be hired Deloitte audit report, the audit results can only audit period of time To sort out real bad, unless full letter should suspend business, and then let the creditors and debtors debts were registered, otherwise, this vulnerability, even as big, is also unknown. Deloitte's report can not indicate any problems. We come under a simple analysis of the situation of the so-called credit assignment of asset securitization, I make a simple chart analysis: Downing personal loans lent to the borrower by way of a million, why is a personal way to take it here? with our legal system is a relationship that China is not allowed to grant loans to non-financial institutions, but the protection of personal loans, so only in the form of personal loans, and personal loans issued after Downing, Downing will get a pen one million one-year debt, according to a lot of people normally understand, Downing loans to be transferred, is certainly to this claim, the overall transfer out, in order to achieve the circulation, but did wealth management or private banking friends are definitely understand the difficulty of the overall transfer is actually great, but Downing smart spending is the creation of so-called P2P, this debt will be carried out on two levels split, split the amount and duration of the split, the two can not be underestimated a split, after the two split, it creates incredible utility. In terms of China's financial markets today, 500,000 high-yield short-term financial products is very small, but this group is occupied most of China, once an amount of one million of debt after the split and deadlines sales more difficult after the split will be significantly reduced. Scattered in the community a lot of idle funds, it is with great enthusiasm into this mode where the letter should be, as more and more funds into a \u0026 ldquo; bank \u0026 rdquo; was born. One side is constantly claims to come in, while that is constantly split, pairing. I was in the 'Talk Alibaba to do finance,' which proposed a concept, banking, bankruptcy is impossible, even bad debt rate of over 100 percent, they do not run, no liquidity problems, external supervision, without interference and constraints will not fall, because the money will continue to come in, you can ensure that you go on surviving, bad debts can be new money coming in to erase, therefore, Mo said on a sense, all financial innovations, in fact, how are no match for the bank. This is the truth. Yixin is the use of this model, the constant use of various claims (true, false, does not seem so important) the introduction of new funds, this model is that you can continue playing. Do not have a case of external intervention, can also play a lifetime.
There is no doubt that the letter should be on the use of the term and funding mismatches so that they become a shadow bank, since the positioning in low amount, short-term, so that the letter should be room for maneuvers, is far greater than other financial institutions, all accepted regulatory bodies, such as trusts, there are number of barriers and restrictions, but rather believe there is no such restriction, the name of P2P slogan, he can do the minimum amount of ten thousand, twenty thousand, deadline, seven days to years. Such a system design, making this game turned, as long as people keep investment coming in, regardless of the inherent debt in the end is good or bad, will not produce much of a problem, the core of the game burst angel wigs is how to continue to do large-scale, constantly appealing to come. Ensure that the game can continue playing. In order to play well in this game, the letter should all work very naturally became the focus, how to better theory to make investors more at ease on the appropriate letter. Design All materials propaganda so-called air control degree, credit management, injection of Sequoia Capital, and even the introduction of Deloitte's audit, even Downing said registered capital letter should have reached a million reasons (its subsidiary directly responsible for business Yixin Huimin, Yixin wealth registered capital of 5 million yuan, its Yu Yixin Pratt \u0026 Whitney, should a letter to Prudential, the letter should Huicheng advised companies such as Pu-letter registered capital was 500 thousand to 2 million range, ' Global Entrepreneur 'data), and so the marketing campaign, the purpose of all point to how to better flicker money inflows this point, it is not the core of this model. And this model is actually a great extent, in essence basically destroyed the appropriate letter is just a middleman intermediary platform this core point, why?
Because in fact operating, should believe such claims transfer mode large amount Split small amount, practice long term, split a small period, this mode of operation for liquidity requirements are extremely high, which means that one month after receiving a sum of money comes in, we must ensure 1 After months, the debt can be sold to another under the house, if you can not achieve it, it will face liquidity pressure, but this time because the underlying debt is not due and can not recover the credits, the only choice it can only be operated by the form of advances should believe in yourself, then it means that the letter should bear the credit himself inside. The letter should liquidity pressures in anti himself. And this time the case if the principal debt occurred bad debt, the final letter should bear the loss is inevitable, and should believe the so-called mediation patterns essentially is not established, he charged, nominally agency fee income, but in fact must be risk income, this income is the difference between the letter should actually lending revenue and interest to investors between that white letter should still earn spreads business model. Yixin himself preached that he founded more than six years have never caused losses to investors. In fact, without causing loss to investors, only two possibilities, the first one is the establishment of no more than six years of bad debts, and the second is the possibility of bad debts, should believe themselves to advance. Obviously the first possibility is not, because only gods can ensure zero bad debts, then there must be a second, the second in the case of claims, such as drumming mass of flowers can continue to turn down, the letter should naturally be able to advance, but the game ? Stop the game stops when it is time to liquidate the real situation, the key index came out \u0026 mdash; \u0026 mdash; bad debt rate. If the default rate should be lower than the letter letter should yield, even when it should be a letter to stop the game, under the regiment plan, is not a big problem. But if the bad debt ratio is too high, then the problem is not only the loss of the emergence of the bar. Also necessarily involves another dimension of the problem \u0026 mdash; \u0026 mdash; Ponzi scheme. Some time ago, the Bank of China chairman Xiao Gang in the 'China Daily' published a signed article in English, called for strengthening supervision of shadow banking. He said that the bank issuing the \u0026 quot; pools \u0026 quot; operation of financial products, due to the maturity mismatch, use the \u0026 quot; issued new subordinated old \u0026 quot; to meet due payment, in essence, it is \u0026 quot; Ponzi \u0026 quot ;. In fact, Shaw's chairman, said it is right, but misses the point, judgment Ponzi scheme's core actually is not that what the situation, but that the value of the subject matter of the investment, only the value of the subject matter was significantly lower than the amount of investment the investor's time, but also continue to attract investment behavior, I think found a Ponzi scheme is meaningful, if the value of the subject matter of the obvious presence, but only liquidity problems, carry out the maturity mismatch, overwriting the old with the new products products, there is no problem. Otherwise, according to Shaw, chairman of the argument, the nation's largest Ponzi scheme in fact, the bank, because the bank absorb a lot of money scattered depositors, and for long-term lending, this is typical of maturity mismatches. However, due to strict bank supervision, to ensure the bank's bad debt rate timely disclosure and control, ease of regulators to take the necessary measures so that the bank's credit assets to cover depositors' money safe. This is why the world's banks to be strict supervision of the main reasons and basis. Although I realized why banks maturity mismatch, but not become the focal point of a Ponzi scheme. So, from this point of view to analyze the letter should, in fact, very clear and straightforward, should the letter is not P2P, at the decision point, in fact, is not important, even if the letter should even really be characterized as \u0026 ldquo; underground banking \u0026 rdquo; \u0026 ldquo; \u0026 rdquo ;, shadow banks can not simply take it that the letter should be a problem, but can not because of the way the letter assignment of claims should be taken is legal, it is considered desirable to believe there is no problem. We should determine whether the letter in question, whether or not the key to a Ponzi scheme is that the overall assets belonging to the transferee in the end whether the letter should be higher than the amount of the investor's investment in the letter should do all we found the assignment of claims are true legal existence case, the key is the key bad debt rate, and this determines whether the letter should be the core point Ponzi scheme. But in fact, due to the lack of regulation, to the letter of the default rate should be reviewed is not easy, almost next to impossible, said earlier, should be suspended until the full letter of the business operations of credit and debt register in order to conduct a comprehensive audit, Otherwise, the letter advised to recognize specific bad debt rate, the possibility is very small, a lot of people here ask why the audit does not come out, I think the main reason for the difficulty lies in the audit letter should take way more credit assignment mask, and many of which are signed by the individual and the individual, and so many aspects of authenticity are difficult, but very large, according to the 120 million of lending, the per capita contribution amount if scattered all fifty thousand, a million, then the meaning with about 12 million people involved in the system should believe, I think the figure of audit is basically impossible audit out. Plus the letter should have been very low-key face of the media, but also for any news in the market basically do not respond to the state, and therefore difficult to understand Yixin is great. So, I can only be myself letter should default rate for some simple analysis from some of the information should be disclosed in the letter. For the letter should asset quality, so far, we can see only one potentially relevant reports are issued a so-called Deloitte audit report, said the letter should be bad 0.7968 percent repayment rate, I really found online a copy of the letter should Deloitte report, in English, a person should believe in the screenshot with Chinese marked out a certain part of that bad debt rate handwritten, three words.
And the text also said that the report was the last three months of the audit report. I do not understand the meaning of them, but I believe, should believe bad debt rate control at 1% of Anything basically is not. Why? Because, I personally can not believe should be a series of so-called risk control standards, find better than other financial institutions or financial institutions out of the control measures. Letter should take is laid outlets across the country, the project selection artificially manner of risk control, risk control measures, in fact, widely used in banks, bank customer manager system is this model, through to customers field investigation, make judgments, whether to give the loan disbursement, loan quality to a large extent because of the difference in specific projects and investigators have large fluctuations, in the absence of precise standards, risk control is to grasp the quality of the project project in the hands of investigators, and if there is a case where precise criteria, then since there are regional differences, regional differences will inevitably arise, how to determine whether it should believe and screening programs, can not avoid this problem, With bigger and bigger scale, risk control ability of this test is a great problem. In fact, there are more risks than the letter should experience accumulation and precipitation, and the letter should have a higher quality than that of other financial institutions, Account Managers are unable at this point to do a particularly good breakthrough, with the basic model should believe in The same loan amount in credit card also much higher than 3 percent default rate, the letter should be 1% or less can do? I personally think that is certainly possible. Not to mention the size of a credit card is much higher than the letter should also be used to circumvent the law of large numbers certain risks, should believe bad debt rate, lower than credit card, I personally think is unlikely. Another factor to consider is the customer base and the loan amount should believe, should believe customer base, according to his own words mainly university students, private entrepreneurs, farmers, working-class, from a large number of reports, the amount of the thousands to tens of thousands, hundreds of thousands of dollars, but the key is that their basic interest costs remained at more than 20% (last seen some reports and advised clients in the letter letter should mention the real interest rate as high as 60%, with nominal two nominal rate plus service charges constitute comprehensive cost up to 60%) I said earlier on, the interest is a very sensitive word, he is not representing the illegal and legal issues, the key issue is that the interest is a direct punch reduce the borrower's profits, as a prerequisite for a rational person to borrow that money he borrowed to earn income may be higher than the interest only loan, if the premise is not true, the inevitable result of this borrowing is bad behavior. So I'm talking about earlier in Zhejiang financial format text Lane said, higher interest rates will push low-risk business into the high-risk areas, a business loan at a low interest, low-risk behavior, but because of high interest rates to borrow money , has become a high-risk business. In fact, in terms of what the industry point of view, even in the profits of the industry, are unable to support up to 20 percent interest to borrow money, but do not call on the appropriate letter groups, students? Farmers? Working class? Business owners ? That can withstand more than 20% of the interest it? What happens when there are many reports have referred to the letter are the real interest rate should be around 60%. The cost of capital letters should reach 60% of another object may also want to hedge against the high cost of this region by high risk and high lending interest rates, in fact, the logic is right. But the implementation of usury this business is great uncertainty, uncertainty from the business very state, customers can borrow 60% of the funds, in fact, the market is there, but generally are staged, temporary and sporadic, business is difficult to continuously present, expect this discrete business, to support long-term business model, I think it is feasible. In terms of customer base and letter should interest income, the appropriate letter are taking a very dangerous balancing game, charging interest rates as high as possible the risk of spikes, while continuing to expand the scale of lower expected earnings, this behavior very dangerous. Especially in the case of a large scale to do any negligence will cause a tiny huge chain reaction. In fact, from a global perspective, microfinance, especially small loans bad debt rate has been very high, and it is interesting that the more mature markets, higher bad debt rate, the so-called Yunus in Bangladesh, left Bangladesh, it is not able to replicate its model to place outside the region to also verify this point, but has been unable to expand the size of Yunus, micro credit field doomed many cases, by the national situation, whether while limiting also it means that the essence of this field space is limited, not as people envisaged a blue ocean fields. In addition, the information in the letter should be declared, because of the small amount, so the client defaults to high, so-called micro-loans to low-risk, in fact, this logic has proved in practice is basically wrong, this logic the opposite is, as a creditor, so you point the loan amount because, to recover, you, like debt collection costs are high, two small compared to the cost of default customers actually not high. So the degree of non-compliance in the field of small loans is low. Although there is a market source said, profits should be up to the letter in 2011 250 million yuan, to be honest, I find this is a great question, though from a normal profit model this figure is likely to get out, because It is said that the letter should be lending a year to reach 120 million, then according to two points, then extracted agency fee revenues of about 2.4 million a year is achievable. If an agency fee income 3 points of dialogue, you can have 3.6 billion in revenue, so 250 million with profit realization is theoretically feasible.
But as I discussed before, in fact, the letter should not risk-free income real sense, he is essentially bound to be risky income, it is spread behavior, so this argument does not fly 250 million. To a large extent, the profits can be achieved, but it is still dependent on the default rate should believe in the end is how much this figure up. And I think that letter should necessarily bad debt rate is not low. In the letter should default rate is too low is not possible, then the two became suspended in the letter should head a sword, first is policy uncertainty, recent market rumors that the government would Claims The transfer amount and frequency have made provisions, then once the implementation of the program if true, the letter should be the basis of the largest underground banking was canceled, along with the limited number of credit transfer, the letter should support liquidity disappears, in terms of the letter should be that rely on new cash flows into cash flow to cash inflows before the game can not continue to play it, the letter should also have to face problems after payment of creditors expired. Conclusion here is relatively simple, if appropriate letter of bad debt rate control is very good, higher than the assets held by creditor debt, then the letter should be no problem. But once the assets held by the creditor, can not cover the debt, then the appropriate letter will face a lot of trouble, a large segment of the content of what trouble is previously discussed. Another aspect is that investors run, when the market believe that the appropriate model, there is a big sailor moon wigs problem, but rather believe they can not well explained when questioned markets, new investors should not choose to believe the product, even if when the letter should give a higher price and more appropriate financial products should believe investors will need to face the problem of payment due, should believe their liquidity is inevitable can not afford such a large payment due in issues. So this time, the letter should also face the problem of clearing possessions. In fact, only these two, we can clearly know that the letter should be behind this huge iceberg in the end is what?!
Here, in fact, wish to believe there is a big risk point, the risk points, just speculation is concerned, in fact, difficult to say no, but certainly worth going to say that it is interesting, I told a reporter yesterday, friends said, the biggest risk is not the appropriate risk control measures actually believe, not regulatory policy, nor is team building , many times in fact, there is no scale impulse constraints and the consequent greed. Yixin is not innovation, this fact can not be denied. Yixin indeed financial innovation, use of the existing legal system in our country, and the creation of a derivative transaction model, but this model is not the time to run to the sun, it would be a very dangerous thing, because you do not know We should believe in the end will do something, but these things you do not know. This is a very terrible thing. Letter should clearly point to the core of the body it is the lack of regulation, so that the letter probably should not exist in the transfer of claims. Yixin is not difficult to understand the overall architecture of the letter should be divided into two parts, left assets is the amount of external lending should believe, the right is the creditor, that is the transfer of foreign debt should believe, should believe in the middle, Yixin the amount of external lending should be greater than or equal transfer of foreign debt, why would more than it, because it does not necessarily should be able to transfer the letter of credit must go out, and the gap is Yixin own interests. But here there is a possibility that the letter should hold the assets of the hands, which is the case where the amount is less than the transfer of foreign lending amounts it should be believed then entered the terrible field \u0026 mdash;? \u0026 Mdash; the typical financial fraud. This possibility should be understood that it is the letter of credit transfer real and also transfer a large amount of debt does not exist, to absorb a lot of money, resulting in a situation of debt is greater than the assets, the situation is actually typical of illegal fund-raising. In fact, the letter of credit transfer should not complicated, I have repeatedly seen some media reports that the transfer of the letter should investors actually for their own debtor is unaware of, but not met, the entire behavior contract lending process are signed with the appropriate letter, and the borrower is the only relationship with the letter should happen, investors and borrowers in this isolated behavior, debt transfer, are in fact under previously signed it is very easy to deviate from the transfer of claims should have been some track, things actually have mastered the initiative in the hands of the appropriate letter. I have a point of view that morality is a very vague thing, perhaps Downing is a very moral person, but on the basis of established ethical rules is difficult to ensure that the problem does not occur, under no external supervision cases, the moral is easy It was crushed reality. Yixin will need to constantly between reality and moral constraints do benefit balance, the risk point, no matter how appropriate to publicize the letter, I can not simply believe that there is no risk points. I think Downing do not understand this behavior should not be a huge disastrous consequences, so I hope that these are just my assumption only. By southern cynical horse Via i