• 26 May
    • 17.05.25 平和憲法は大事だけど、・・・

      正当防衛できるだけの兵力は持っていて、しかるべきと思う。 武器持っていません、皆殺しにしてください。。。というのはごめんです。 原油;減産・・・・相場はどっち???   【相場観】 金:買い維持 白金:買い維持 ゴム:売り注文 ガソリン:買い維持 原油:買い維持 コーン;売り成立せず、買い維持

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  • 25 May
    • 17.05.24 憲法

      平和憲法は他者依存のところが問題。 悪意の隣人はいないという前提ですが、どこにでも 悪がきに相当する人・国はあります。  戦い挑まれたらどうする???? 誰かが守ってくれる、攻撃されるに任せておく。 そんな無謀なことを考えているように思えます。 永世中立国のスイスも軍隊を持っています。   中国は尖閣・沖縄を狙っています。朝鮮は竹島を、 ソ連・ロシアは北方4島を奪いました。   よくよく考えるべきでしょう。   応戦   【相場観】 金:買い維持 白金:買い維持 ゴム:買い維持 ガソ:買い維持 原油:買い維持 コーン:売り注文

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  • 24 May
    • 17.05.23 日本を危険にさらす法律

      モンサント法 穀物、さらに言えば食糧安保に関する法律。 どうなることやら。   安保・・・・・沖縄の米軍基地・・・・・・本土から沖縄値移設したもの。   沖縄の犠牲の上に成り立っている安保。   沖縄の本土フックは失敗だった????   自分のこと、自分の地元しか考えない人たちがリーダーになった国民の不幸。   自分のお金は自分で守る、増やすしかない。   【相場観】 白金の買い占め・・・・当面の目標100キログラム。   金:売り注文成立せず。買い維持 白金:買い注文。(昨日買い転換、勝った人は買い維持) ゴム:買い維持。当限・期近が上げ主導、1か月後にも上げの再来あるか? 売り転換までじっくり様子見。噴いたところの利食いはご自由に。 ガソリン:買い維持 原油:買い維持 コーン:買い維持。ここはだましカモ。    

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  • 20 May
    • 17.05.19 豊洲問題。オリンピック問題

      議会で審議する解決策もあったのではないかな、と思う今日この頃です。 憲法改正、~~は憲法順守しなければならない。 ということは~~は会見を言えない、言えば憲法違反である。   戦争には反対するが、仕掛けられた、攻撃されたらどうするかの議論は必要だろう。 中国が尖閣に上陸したら、昔自衛隊のないときに尖閣沖を中国が動き回ったらどうしていたのだろう。 竹島のようになっただろう。 ソ連、ロシア問題もあるよ。   善意の隣人ばかりではない、善意を利用して悪いことをする隣人もいる可能性を否定できない。   応戦。正当防衛。  そんな言葉もあるという前提で、軍事力を持つことを考えたほうが良いのではないかと思う。 スイスも国民皆兵に近いようだ。   【相場観】 金:売り注文 白金:売り維持 ごむ:売り維持 ガソ:売り維持。たぶん下髭は絶好の買い場だったかもしれない。 原油:売り維持 コーン:売り維持。 売り玉決済注文を出したが。・・・

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  • 19 May
    • 17.05.18 獣医学部。加計(かけ)学園

      たぶん安倍総理または側近の意思が働いていたのだろう。   京都産業大学は、涙をのんだ。   今後、荒れるだろう。   トランプ大統領もあれる、   それでも相場は、亡くならない。 安心して投資できる。 損するか儲かるかは、相場次第。     【相場観】 金:買い維持 白金:売り注文 ゴム:売り転換 ガソリン:売り注文 原油:売り注文 コーン:売り維持    

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  • 18 May
    • 17.05.17 アメリカ大統領

      暗殺されるかも…と思っていた、今も思っている。 弾劾、大統領を首になる可能性のほうが高い。   どちらにしても、何が起こるかわからない、7の年。   北朝鮮の動きも、興味深い。   センサーを挿入して、ロシア、中国、日欧米の反応を探っている。 センサーは、ミサイルがその役割りを担っている。   【相場観】 金:買い維持 プラチナ;買い維持 ゴム::買い維持 ガソ::売り注文 原油::売り注文 コーン:売り維持   :    

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  • 17 May
    • 今日は世界高血圧デー

      健康に気をつけて何かしてる? ▼本日限定!ブログスタンプ あなたもスタンプをGETしよう   正常値といわれている数値は、 誰かの利益のために作られた数値である。   よくよく注意すべし

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    • 17.05.17 原発

      http://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/europe/germany-renewable-energy-record-coal-nuclear-power-energiewende-low-carbon-goals-a7719006.html   Germany breaks renewables record with coal and nuclear power responsible for only 15% of country's total energy Electricity prices fell to negative figures for several hours on Sunday, as renewable sources fed so much power into the grid that supply exceeded demand      

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  • 16 May
    • あなたが愛される理由を表彰!

        表彰状をプレゼント! 丸亀のkappaさんが愛される理由は・・・     あなたの知られざる魅力とは!? 愛される理由をチェック    

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    • 17.05.16 一帯一路

      中国は、不良債権を増やそう、世界を不良債権化しようとしている。 それが一帯一路。 お金がかかるから日本に銀行参加を求めているとしか、 思えない。   北朝鮮。ミサイル  各国の反応を見るため。見事な外交戦略。   【相場観】 金:買い維持 プラチナ:買い維持 ゴム:買い維持 オイル系:買い維持 コーン:包み足。売り転換近し。買い玉手仕舞い時

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    • 17.05.15-3 東芝も大変。子会社を売れるか、債務超過を抑えられるか、決算できるか

      上場廃止ほぼ確定・・・・売り逃げを考えるところ。   外科医の手術と、トレードは似ている。   一喜一憂することなく、不測の事態に備える。   医者でいえば、合併症に対処すること、ある確率で起こることだからそれに対応できるドクターが良いドクターということになる。   【相場観】 金:買い維持 白金:買い維持 ゴム:買い維持 ガソリン:買い維持 原油:買い維持 コーン:買い維持。転換近し。      

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  • 15 May
    • 17.05.15-02 ある外科医の言葉

       医療とは祈りである、という言葉があります。医師が最善を尽くしたら、あとは祈るしかないのです。それは、患者家族も医師も同じということでしょう。「今晩が山です」などという安易な言葉を使う医師もいません。容体が回復するまで幾晩でも粘り強く患者を見守り続けるのが、あるべき医師の姿です。  最後に、近代外科学の祖と呼ばれる16世紀の外科医、アンブロワーズ・パレの言葉を紹介しましょう。 “われ、包帯す、神、 癒(いや) し 賜(たま) う”  本当にそう思います。パレは治療を施した後、患者が治るように夜通し祈ったそうです。「私、失敗しないので」とは言わなかったのではないでしょうか? 松永 正訓(まつなが・ただし)   ※ ☆ トレーダーの仕掛けも、同じような心境でしょう。 合併症に相当するのは、損切り、これの対処法を知らなければ破産ですから、慎重に対処するしかありません。 うまくいけば利食い。    

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    • 17.05.15 10年後

      What Your Future Trading Self Would Tell You 10 Years From Now By Nial Fuller in Forex Trading Articles | 5 Comments I hate to open with a cliché, but it’s an important one: The reality of trading is that over 90% of retail traders who start trading a live account will ultimately fail; losing money and suffering emotionally all in a short space of time. The typical trader will start live trading way before they are ready, they risk money they shouldn’t, have no clear capital management strategy, they are not mentally prepared and lack discipline in all areas. To make a simple analogy, would you put a tennis player in his first few years on the circuit into the top seed professional tournaments? Sounds crazy, right? Well as a trader, when you dive in with all your optimism and enthusiasm to beat the market and make money, you’re doing something equally as crazy, yet the mainstream accepts it as normal. This is why the cliché is unfortunately very true; because so many people start trading before they’re ready. Jumping into the market and trading live before you’re ready, almost certainly ends in you losing money. In the end, the only thing that keeps you in the game is your bankroll, and if you burn through it before you know how to trade properly, you’re going to fail, obviously. You must properly prepare yourself and arm yourself with knowledge and experience, before risking real money. This way, you will give yourself the best shot at not ending up like most traders, who fail. Trading is about staying afloat long enough to be able to take advantage of big moves in the market, and if you trade away your capital too fast, you won’t be able to do this. However, there can be a different trading reality for you, it doesn’t have to be this way! What if your future self (10 years from now), could sit down and have a conversation and give your current self advice on all the mistakes that ultimately led to your failure? What do you think you would say? In writing this article, I imagined that I was sitting down with myself as a beginner, 15 years ago, sharing all my experiences, highs and lows, traps and pitfalls, triumphs and tribulations and the wisdom and insight I’ve learned from all of that. Here is what I would say… A message from yourself 10 years from now… – “Dude, don’t trade so much, slow it the hell down!” The very first thing I would say to my former trading self is to slow it the hell down. Not to be crude, but honestly, I have seen more people blow trading accounts from simply trading too much than I care to admit. I too was guilty of over-trading in my early days, and I know how quickly it can destroy your trading account, your mindset and potentially even your life. The lesson that the market will always be there, can be an expensive one to learn. But, it doesn’t have to be for you. If you heed my advice here and listen to what I’m saying and implement it, you can largely avoid all the pain and suffering that goes with over-trading. The point is, the market isn’t going anywhere! Markets have been around since the 1700’s when people first started using candlesticks charts in Japan to track rice prices. Barring the end of the world, markets will be here tomorrow and forever. Don’t get your pants in a bunch, slow down and realize if you miss a trade, it’s not a big deal, if you have to wait a few months to trade live, it’s not a big deal. Whatever you do, don’t be in a rush to make money, because that will be the thing that prevents you from making money! I have an excellent article that shows in detail why low-frequency trading is far more lucrative than high-frequency trading. As the old saying goes, “All good things come to those who wait”. It’s not just a general saying, it’s also a fact of trading. Let the market come to you, meaning, let those obvious trades develop, don’t force a trade that simply isn’t there. The market will show you its hand, so to speak, if you simply wait for it to do so. The last thing you want to happen is not having any money to trade with when the market does finally show you its hand! – “Dude, trade smaller position size!!!” The next thing I would say to my former trading self is to respect and protect your bankroll because it’s the only thing keeping you in the game. In trading, your bankroll, or trading capital, is your tool and your equipment, it’s the supplies you need to make your money. Just like a doctor needs his or her medical supplies and equipment, you need your bankroll. The thing that most beginning traders underestimate or don’t understand, is capital preservation. Preserving your capital so that you can take advantage of the big moves in the market when they come along, is one of the keys to long-term trading success. Your trading capital is your life-line in the market, treat it like oxygen, without it, you cannot ‘breath’ in the trading world, and so you will die if you don’t preserve it. When you start trading live, you must start smaller and build up to larger amounts over time as your skill and confidence improve. You will not achieve success as trader staring out trading large position sizes. So, you need to understand capital preservation as discussed above and position sizing. Most beginning traders know little about these topics or they ignore them and erroneously assume they are less important than they are or that they will “figure them out later”, HUGE mistake, HUGE (Donald Trump voice).  – “Dude, let trades play out and master patience. Please.” Don’t interfere with your trades Nial, have patience, please. That is the next thing I would tell my former trading self. I would stress the low-frequency approach I discussed above and to avoid day trading. As beginning traders, it’s hard to even realize, let alone accept the fact that trades take time to play out, often longer than we desire or expect. So, it’s very easy to get into a game of constantly closing perfectly good trades early, before they have a chance to move in your favor and hit your target. This is called getting “shaken out” of a trade. You must avoid this. You have to let the market take you out most of the time, rather than taking yourself out. I would tell my former self that the market often moves further and stays over-extended in one direction longer than most people ever expect or think is possible. How many times have you thought or said to yourself “The market can’t possibly keep going!”, only to see it do exactly that? This is a common beginner mistake. You cannot assume anything about a market. Let the market and the price action guide you rather than making up stories in your head about what ‘should happen’. The market doesn’t care what you think should happen, it’s going to do what it wants regardless of you or anyone else. In my early trading years, I cannot tell you how many times I have closed a trade out too soon, only to see it go on to be a winner, without me on board. There is perhaps nothing more excruciatingly maddening in life than ALMOST making a lot of money but because you weren’t disciplined or patient, letting it slip right through your fingers!!! I would tell myself: Patience and its ‘brother’ self-discipline, are your greatest allies in this game we call trading. In addition to mastering your trading strategy, you need to become a master of yourself, which means mastering the ability to stay disciplined and patient. You must master these via whatever ways possible. This is largely something that cannot be taught. You just have to dig-deep and do it! “Dude, just stick with the one strategy” Master one strategy first, then add if required. Build your trading arsenal one ‘weapon’ at a time. But, don’t deviate outside of your core trading philosophy and beliefs. Often, one concept or trading pattern / setup is enough to make you a fortune. You learn to trade a concept, it makes you money, you run with it and you ‘strike while the iron is hot’, pyramiding into positions especially during your winning streaks. What you don’t want to do is get overly-confident and start bolting on new tricks and toys right after you find something that’s working (many traders make this mistake), go with what works. If you try adding too many things too soon, you will end up over-trading and become over-whelmed and frustrated. Remember, as I always say, Keep It Simple Stupid! You need to avoid temptation, difficult to do in trading, but necessary if you want to succeed… There are logical ideas and there are ‘hocus pocus’ ideas, so don’t be lured astray. Remove clutter from decision making in all forms. The news or fundamentals will rarely serve a short-term trader positively so believe in the technical analysis, the price action. The world is a simpler place than most believe, as are the financial markets, so stick to reading the price action of the charts and anticipating trades based on that price action, whilst always managing risk appropriately. “Stick with a good thing if you’re lucky to find it, kid.” Take a deep breath, life and trading are marathons, not sprints… Finally, the most important thing I would say to myself 15 years ago, is something applicable to both trading and life in general. As we get older, we learn, we gain wisdom and insight, indeed this is the silver-lining to aging. Whilst I am still relatively young, at 33 I have learned a lot. The one thing I can honestly say more than anything else is that life and trading are both won by thinking of them as and treating them as a marathon, not a sprint. Good things seldom happen by acting before you think. We are told as kids to “think before we speak”, yet it’s so hard for a kid to do that because kids are largely operating on impulse and feeling, with very little planning, forward-thinking or recognition of the consequences of their behavior. It is no different in trading really; those traders who simply act (start trading live) without a trading education and without planning ahead are the approximate 90% cliché who lose money.  

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  • 13 May
    • 17.05.13 教育の間違い

      太平洋戦争 朝日新聞・・・・軍部との関係。慰安婦問題。 最近では、東芝  日本郵政 日本の大学のランキングをどう評価するか? 人物の魅力、問題発見能力、問題解決能力・・・これらが必用だろう。 投資教育もお金の仕組みから義務教育で学ぶべきだろう。 日本のある経済学修士、ロシアだかどこかの学校w退学処分になったとか。台数、議席ができない・・・・経済がわかるわけがない。人間力もなかったようだ。 今後はノーベル賞も減るだろう。

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  • 12 May
    • 17.05.11 物の理

      もののことわり と読みます。   行動経済学は物理の応用のようです。   統計学は、心理学を巻き込んで発展したようです。   そしてトレーダーは、一種の心理学者になれば勝ちやすいようです。   【相場観】 金:転換近し 白金:買い注文 ゴム:買い注文 ガソリン:買い注文 原油:買い注文 コーン:買い維持

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  • 11 May
    • 17.05.10 マーケットは選挙とは無関係に動く!?

      ただ、変動幅が大きくなるだけ。 市場参加者の欲望・恐怖心の動きを繁栄するだけ   そんなことは、いつも起こっている。   いつも通りにトレードすればよいだけ。 変動幅が大きくなると予測できれば、サイズを小さくするだけ。   【相場観】 金:売り維持。 白金:売り維持 ゴム:売り維持。微妙 ガソリン:売り維持 原油:売り維持 コーン:買い維持   円高方向に振れたら、上げているものは下げやすい。

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  • 10 May
    • 17.05.09-2 韓国 新大統領、決定

      北朝鮮との関係 日本・・・慰安婦問題、交渉のやり直し。   朝日新聞の誤報のところから、交渉再開すべきでしょう。 韓国軍のベトナムでの行動・・・・これに対して日本の軍規の厳しさ。 朝日の誤報から出発した政府高官の間違った行動、これらを解消すべきでしょう。 竹島問題も、外交力で解決すべく、宣伝するべきでしょう。   それで韓国内部がぐちゃぐちゃになっても自業自得でしょう。    

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  • 09 May
    • 17.05.09-2 フランス・・・・EU安心感・・・円安

      次に待ってるフランス国会議員の選挙。 楽観できないということを忘れている模様。   近衛文麿総理大臣とダブって見えます。   一期目のオバマ大統領ともダブります。   【相場観】 金売り維持 白金売り維持。 逆張りの買戻し注文入れるのも面白い。 ゴム売り維持 ガソ売り維持 原油売り維持 コーン買い維持。頭重い展開・・・売り転換近しか?

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    • 17.05.09 またまた英語の勉強

      Let The Market Take You Out Of Your Trade By Nial Fuller in Forex Trading Strategies | 5 Comments What is the single biggest reason traders struggle to make money in the markets? Do you think it’s lack of knowledge or trading skill? Not enough money in their accounts, poor risk management or the wrong trading mindset? Whilst these are all issues that negatively affect traders, in my opinion, the single biggest reason most traders don’t succeed, is self-sabotage. You can take any trader who is struggling on a real account, put them on a demo account and they will almost certainly do much, much better. Why is that? Why is demo trading different than live trading? What do traders do differently on a demo account than a real account? The answer is simple; they don’t self-sabotage on demo accounts, or at least a lot less. On a demo account, you do almost everything right, primarily because there is no emotion because there’s no real money being risked. But from my experience, we can boil that down to an even more specific event; the fact that on a demo account, most traders will simply set and forget their trades, much more so than they will on a live account. So, what does all this have to do with letting the market take you out? Well, when traders exit trades manually, i.e. before their stop loss or target gets hit, most of the time they are sabotaging their trading and hurting their chances of making money. Most of the time, the right thing to do is to simply let the market take you out, or let price hit your stop loss or your target by itself, without you manually closing the trade. This article will explain my thinking behind when I decide to either let the market take me out or when I decide to intervene… Why You Should Almost Never Manually Close Trades Ok, here is the first and perhaps most important thing to understand… If you manually close a trade when it’s against you, you are voluntarily taking a loss. Read that last sentence again, maybe even a third time. Trading is about maximizing your winners so that they offset your losing trades, that’s how you make money. You’re going to have losing trades, but you don’t need to voluntarily take them, most of the time. Here is an example: A trader enters a trade on a demo account, it chops sideways for a week, going nowhere. The next week, it rotates down, almost stopping him out for a loss, he’s staring at a $2,500 drawdown. Now, here is the key difference; on a demo account that trader FEELS no reason to close out the trade, so he simply leaves it be. He is thinking logically and clearly and he knows if he closes it he is voluntarily taking a loss that might turn around and become a win. The next week that trade starts moving his way and rockets up to hit his profit target at the week’s end. Rather than taking nearly a $3,000 loss, he booked a $6,000 winner by simply waiting, and doing nothing for two weeks. The moral of that story is that you must give a trade time to work out. Time is a factor that you can’t control and the one that gives traders the most trouble. Everyone wants to make money NOW, but the market might have other plans. You might have to sit on your hands for two or three weeks, and can you do that on a live account? That is the question and the problem you have to solve if you ever want to make money as a trader. If a trade doesn’t hit your stop loss, then the trade idea is still valid and could still work out for you. It may mean it consolidates for two weeks, and then takes off to be a 5r winner. Don’t close it just because it’s chopping or moving towards your predetermined stop loss. Examples of letting the market take you out vs. manual exits Emotions drive traders to exit trades before stop losses or profit targets are hit. The more critical of these two is exiting before a stop loss is hit, or voluntarily taking a loss, because these cost us huge. These trades will often work out just after we manually take the loss… In the chart below, a trader would have been rewarded for not exiting when price neared their stop loss. In these situations, you must remind yourself this is a game of odds, and you give yourself the best odds by sticking with your initial trade plan and letting the trade play out… Here is another example of what I call the set and forget mentality with stop losses…. In the chart below, many traders would have exited prematurely after the bearish pin bar formed. But just as they took a loss or a very small win, price was ready to explode higher for a 2 or 3R winner and possibly more. In this case, the horizontal level at 1240.00 was the level to watch, not the pin bar low. Just because there’s a counter-trend pin bar doesn’t mean you need to close the trade, in these situations, I watch key chart levels as indicators of when I should bail on a trade (not only price bars) … Avoid fiddling with trades and avoid early manual exists, instead let the market hit the stop loss as you initially placed it or let the market hit your target (let the market take you out). If you need help on stop loss placement <—-read this article. Exceptions to the rule… Remember, price action trading is not mechanical so there is always an exception to the rules. In this instance, that would be the chart’s price action suggesting a clear reason to exit. There are three scenarios to watch for: Opposing price action signal – This can be a warning sign of a reversal that may be a trigger to get out early. Or… The story on the chart is changing. ‘Listen’ to what the market is saying, did we close below / above a key level or moving average? Or… Did the price action signal we entered on clearly fail with the market reversing and closing below or above the price pattern? In the chart below, we can see an example of a trade it made sense to exit. If you didn’t have your stop right at the bearish pin bar high, as in if you had entered this bearish pin on a 50% retrace or trade entry trick, you probably would have wanted to close it out before it hit your stop once you saw price pushing up past the high of the pin bar and closing above that key resistance at 51.20 area. There is some discretion involved here obviously. But, you will get better at this stuff through training, time and experience. Typically, if you take a trade against the near-term momentum, which in this case was up, there’s a good chance you will have to exit early… A violation of a setup low or high doesn’t always mean it fails… The final example I want to show you is a recent EURUSD pin bar buy signal and how price simply violating it’s low, didn’t mean the trade idea failed. This setup formed at the key support of a trading range, near 1.0520; a key chart level that had held on numerous recent occasions. Now, remember, key levels are usually more like zones of support or resistance, not always static levels. So, it goes to reason that our stop losses should be beyond them a little bit, not right at the level. Had you entered this pin on my trade entry trick, you should have had your stop well below the pin low (50 to 100 pips). Doing so would have allowed you to avoid a premature stop out when price was just ‘flirting’ with the pin low, right before it surged on in your favor to be a gigantic winning trade. From when this pin bar formed, to when price hit the top of the trading range near 1.0830 area, a month went by. Would you have been able to hold that position in a live account with all the chopping and moving toward your stop loss? If you did, you would have banked a large profit simply by doing nothing… Recap Here are the main take away points of this lesson: Good trades often take time to play out, often that time is longer than you want (usually it is) or expect. Let your trades breathe by giving them a wider stop loss than you may want (reduce position size accordingly). A market might chop sideways, flounder or even retrace 1 pip from your stop loss before turning around in your favor. But, because there’s a random distribution of wins and losses, it makes zero sense (most of the time) to close your trades out before they hit your stop loss. Price moving beyond the low or high of a pin bar or level momentarily isn’t always a sign the setup has failed. Conclusion I hope you can see that you can significantly help your trading performance by simply DOING LESS. I mean, simply by fiddling with your trades less often and by not closing them out before they hit your stop loss, you can greatly increase the number and amount of your wins. Now, I’m not saying you won’t have losses because you will! But, STOP taking them voluntarily and for no reason! So many traders take so many losses that they simply don’t need to take. Maybe it means you have to dial down your risk per trade so you aren’t so emotionally rattled when price rotates toward your stop loss, maybe it means you need to learn more about stop loss placement and how to trade with price action. But, whatever it takes, you must stop losing money simply because you got nervous due to choppy price movement or price moving against you. Correct stop loss placement, reading what is on the charts correctly and controlling your emotions are all core components to protecting your trading capital and maximising your wins. These are some of the lessons I teach and go more into more in-depth in my trading courses and members’ area. If you are serious about understanding this stuff and how to stop sabotaging your own trading, it’s time to take the next step…  

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  • 08 May
    • 17.05.08-2 イギリス、フランスの選択

      EUにとどまるか離脱かの選択。   壮大な実験です。   フランスは、イギリスと異なる道を選び、 異なるイバラの道を歩むことになりました。 次は国会の選挙です。 ねじれ現象 何も決まらない不毛の5年、 オランド大統領の轍を踏む可能性があります。   こういうことに関係なく、 相場は上げ下げを繰り返すだけでしょう。   売りサインがでたら売り。 買いサインが出たら買い、   シンプルに考えることのほうがよさそうです。   【相場観】 金:売り注文 白金:売り維持 ゴム:売り注文 ガソ:売り維持 原油:売り維持 コーン:買い維持  

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