• 09 Apr
    • 17.04.09 週足での判断・・・どこまで正確か?

      コーン:売り 大豆:売り 小豆:買い。 豆は出来高少ないので指値の1枚仕掛けでしょう ゴム:売り 金:買い 銀:買い 白金:売り パラ:買い ガソ:買い 灯油:買い 原油:買い  

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    • 17.04.09-2 英語の続き mindset

      How To Develop A Profitable Forex Trading Mindset By Nial Fuller in Forex Trading Articles | 94 Comments In today’s lesson I am going to help you develop a profitable trading mindset. It’s an unavoidable reality that your forex trading success or failure will  largely depend on your mindset. In other words, if your Forex trading psychology is not right, you aren’t going to make any money! Unfortunately, most traders ignore this important fact or are unaware of how critical having the proper mindset is to Forex trading success. If you do not have the correct trading mindset, it doesn’t matter how good your trading strategy is, because no strategy will ever make money if it’s used by a trader with the wrong psychology. Note: I would love to hear how you plan on using the points discussed here to improve your Forex trading mindset. Please leave me your comments and feedback below after reading today’s lesson! A lot of people seem to be unaware of the fact that they are trading with a mindset that is inhibiting them from making money in the markets. Instead, they think that if they just find the right indicator or system they will magically start printing money from their computer. Trading success is the end result of developing the proper trading habits, and habits are the end result of having the proper trading psychology. Today’s lesson is going to give you the insight you need to develop a profitable trading mindset, so read this lesson carefully and don’t dismiss any of it, because I promise you that the reason you are struggling in the markets now is because your mindset is working against you instead of for you. Step 1: Have realistic expectations The first thing you need to do to develop the proper Forex trading mindset is have realistic expectations about trading. What I mean is this; don’t think you’re going to quit your job and start making a million dollars a year after 2 months of trading live with your $5,000 account. That’s not how it works, and the sooner you ground your expectations in reality, the sooner you will begin to make money consistently. You need to accept that you cannot over-trade and over-leverage your way to trading success, if you do those two things you might make some quick money temporarily, but you will soon lose it all and more. Accept the reality of how much money you have in your trading account and how much of that you are willing to lose per trade. Here are some other points to consider: • Only trade with disposable ‘risk’ capital – Disposable capital is money you don’t need for any life expenses, including retirement or other long-term things.  If you don’t have any disposable or risk capital,  then keep demo trading until you do, or stop trading all together, but whatever you do, do not trade with money you are going to become emotional about losing.  Always assume you could lose whatever money you have in your account or in a trade…if you’re truly OK with that, then your good to go, just make sure you don’t lie to yourself…REALLY BE OK WITH IT.  Trading with ‘scared’ money (money you can’t afford to lose) will lead to severe emotional pressure and cause ongoing losses. • Make sure you can still sleep at night !– This is related to the above point about disposable capital. But the difference is that you need to ask yourself before EVERY trade you take if you are 100% neutral or OK with potentially losing the money you are about to risk. If you can’t sleep at night because you’re thinking about your trade, you’ve risked too much. No one can tell you how much to risk per trade, it depends on what you’re personally comfortable with. If you trade 4 times a month you can obviously risk a little more per trade than someone who trades 30 times a month…it’s relative to your trade frequency, your skills as a trader, and your personal risk tolerance. • Understand each trade is independent of the previous one – This point is important because I know that many traders are way too influenced by their previous trade. The fact of the matter is that your last trade has absolutely ZERO to do with your next trade. You need to avoid becoming euphoric or over-confident after a winning trade or revengeful after a losing trade. The fact of the matter is that every time you trade it should just be seen as another execution of your trading edge; if you just had 3 consecutive winners you need to avoid risking more than usual on your next trade just because you are feeling very confident, and you need to avoid jumping back into the market right away after a losing trade just to try and “make back” what you lost. When you do these things you are operating 100% on emotion rather than logic and objectivity. • Don’t get attached to your trades – If you follow the 3 points we just discussed you should have little chance of becoming too attached to your trades. Don’t take any trade personally, just because you lose on a few trades in a row doesn’t mean you suck at trading, likewise if you win on 3 trades in a row it doesn’t mean you are a trading “God” who is immune to losing. If you don’t risk too much per trade and you aren’t trading with money you need for other things in your life, you probably won’t get too attached to your trades. Step 2: Understand the power of patience I think one of the biggest realizations that allowed me to turn the corner in my own trading was that I didn’t have to trade a lot to make a decent monthly return. Think about it, most people consider a 6% annual return very good for a savings account, and if you average 12% a year on your retirement fund you are pretty happy. So why is it that most traders expect to make 100% a month or some other unrealistic return? What’s wrong with making 5 or 10% a month? That’s still exceptional over the course of one year. Whilst I can’t imply you will make a certain percentage per month, if you just understand that slower and more consistent gains are the way to long-term success in the markets, you will be far better off at the end of each trading year. Here are some other points to consider about patience: • Learn to trade on the daily charts first – By learning to trade on the daily chart time frames first, you will naturally take a bigger-picture approach to the markets and you’ll avoid most of the temptation to over-trade that the lower time frames induce. Beginning traders especially need to slow down and learn to trade off the daily charts first. Daily charts provide the most relevant and practical view of the market. YOU DO NOT HAVE TO TRADE EVERYDAY to make a solid return each month. • Quality over quantity – I consider myself a “sniper” of the market; I wait and I wait and I wait, sometimes for days or even 1 week without trading, then when I see a price action setup that triggers my “this one is a no-brainer” alarm…I pull the trigger with ZERO emotion. I am always fully prepared to lose the money I have risked on any one trade because I do not trade unless I am 100% confident that my price action trading edge is present. • User your ‘bullets’ wisely – To really hammer-home the power of patience in developing the proper trading mindset, you need to understand that being patient will work to instill positive trading habits within you. Patience reinforces positive trading habits, whereas emotional trading reinforces negative ones. Once you begin to trade patiently you will see how using your “bullets” wisely works…you only need a few good trades a month to make a respectable return in the markets, after you achieve this via patience, you will learn to enjoy NOT being in the markets…because it’s then that you are “hunting your prey”. This in contrast to the frazzled and frustrated trader who is staying up all night staring at the charts like a trading zombie who just will not accept that they need to trade less often. Step 3: Be organized in your approach to the markets You NEED to have a business trading plan, a trading journal, and you need to plan out most of your actions in the market before you enter. The more you plan before you enter the higher-probability you will have of making money long-term. You are ALWAYS going to interpret the market more accurately whilst you’re not in a trade…so pre-planning everything increases your odds of making money since you will be working more on logic than emotion. • Have a trading plan – I know it can be boring, I know you might think you don’t “need” to make one, but if you don’t make a trading plan and actually use it and tweak it as you learn, you will start trading on an unorganized and probably emotional path. A trading plan doesn’t have to be a very dry and boring document; you can get creative with it. You’re trading plan could be that you write your own weekly commentary before each week begins, plan out what you will do and look for in the upcoming week…just make sure you have a “plan of attack” before you enter any trade. • Keep a professional trading journal – You need a track record, you need to record your trades, you need to do this in a forex trading journal. This is a critical component to forging the proper Forex trading mindset because it gives you a tangible document that you can look at and instantly get raw feedback on your trading performance. Once you start keeping a journal of your trades it will become a habit, and you will not want to see emotional results staring back at you in your trade journal. Eventually, you will look at your trading journal as something of a work of art that proves your ability to trade with discipline as well as your ability to follow your trading plan. This is something any serious investor will want to see if you plan on trading other people’s money. • Think BEFORE you ‘shoot’, not after – All of the planning and preemption that I just discussed is analogous to thinking before you shoot. A gun is a very powerful weapon, we all know that we need to think before we shoot one, even if we are just hunting or shooting at a gun range. Likewise, the markets can be very powerful “weapons” in regards to making or losing you money. So, you want to do as much thinking before you enter a trade as you can, because after you enter you are going to naturally be more emotional and you don’t want to put yourself in a position of constantly entering regrettable trades. If you plan your actions before you enter, you should not regret your trades, even when you have losing trades. I never regret any trade I take because I don’t trade unless my edge is present and I’m always comfortable with the amount of money I have risked on any one trade. Step 4: Have no doubt about what your trading edge is Finally, don’t start trading with real money if you aren’t really sure how to trade your edge. You are obviously not going to develop the proper trading mindset if you jump into trading a live account without being 100% confident in what you’re looking for. Whatever your edge is, make sure you’ve found success trading it on a demo account for at least 3 months or more before you go live. Don’t just “dive in head first” without being totally comfortable in your approach…this is what most traders do and most of them lose money too. • Have 100% confidence in your edge – I have 100% confidence in my price action trading strategies…that’s not to say that I am foolish enough to believe EVERY trade will win, but I am totally confident that every time I trade my edge is truly present. I don’t compromise my trading edge by taking setups that look they are “almost” good enough…I simply don’t trade in that case. I only take price action setups that I feel in my gut are high-probability valid representations of my edge. Therefore, I am never fearful or worried about any trade I enter, even if it ends up losing. • Don’t gamble – There are skilled traders, and then there are people who gamble in the markets. If you take a calm and calculated approach to your trading and wait patiently for your trading edge to appear, like a sniper, then you are a skilled trader. If you just “run and gun” and veer off course from your trading plan, you are a gambler. So, are you a Forex trader or a gambler? • Price action trading helps develop the proper trading mindset – My trading edge is price action, and I fully believe that the simplicity of price action trading helped me develop and maintain the proper Forex trading mindset. We don’t need tons of messy indicators on our charts and we don’t need Forex trading robots or other expensive software. All we need is the raw price action of the market and our magnificent human minds to interpret it; it’s up to us to harness this power. The price action of the market gives us a map to follow, and a pretty obvious one at that, if we can ignore the emotional temptations that arise in our minds we will have no problem profiting off of this price action map. I trust today’s lesson has provided you with some insight into how you can develop the proper mindset and ignore the emotions and break the habits that destroy your trading success. If you want to learn more please check out my price action Forex trading course.

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    • 17.04.09 英語の勉強。外国のプロの手法

      Why Professional Traders Make Money & You Don’t By Nial Fuller in Forex Trading Articles | 38 Comments I’m sure you’ve wondered what professional traders do to succeed over the long-run. It’s easy to hit a few winners, but how do you parlay that into more consistent, longer-term trading success that you can turn into a full-time income? What are professional traders doing differently from you? The typical day in the life of a pro trader is probably very different from yours. From what they think about to what they do, there’s a lot you can learn from the daily habits of a professional. The novice trader is racing to look at the charts, desperate to find a trade, whereas the professional is calmly going about his or her routine because he knows there’s no rush. The novice trader is constantly thinking about the live trades they have on, whereas the professional trusts the process and the trading plan so there is no need for them to worry. The mind of a pro trader and how they think Professional traders understand their own minds and how their own personalities may interfere with their trading success. They have identified and worked on solving these mental issues, becoming a better trader and person as a result. Some of these issues are over-trading / gambling in the market, being afraid to enter a trade, being greedy, revenge trading, to name a few. Developing a profitable trading mindset is a requirement to become a professional trader. It’s something you must work on, it doesn’t just ‘happen’. It begins with education, with learning about common trading pitfalls and understanding why you make them, then developing a plan of action to combat them and hopefully, to defeat them forever. Professional traders know they may not always be in a trade The bulk of pro traders are not day-traders, because quite frankly, day-trading is extremely difficult to succeed at. Most pro traders are patient, calculating swing traders who know what they’re looking for. So, professional traders do not think about the market from the mindset of needing or wanting to be in a trade. They think about it much more objectively; “Is my trading edge present? If so, then I execute my trading plan, if not, then I don’t trade, no big deal either way”. The primary difference in mindset between an amateur and a professional trader is that the professional has no urgency in his trading approach. He or she is simply playing the game because they want to win at it, not because they are ‘trying’ to make money. Making money is a by-product of doing everything well enough to win. Professionals trade when most people are too afraid to trade Perhaps more than anything else, the hallmark of a professional trader is that they trade when others won’t. Perhaps more specifically, a professional trader will typically be on the opposite side of a trade than an amateur. As an example – A trend might seem very ‘old’, like it ‘should’ end any day now, but the professional knows that markets can go much further than people think; even when it looks ‘too’ high or low, markets can continue to extend. Thus, the professional trader will have no problem buying into a ‘very high’ up trend or selling into a ‘very low’ downtrend, whereas the amateur trader will be trying to pick the top or bottom and continuously get stopped out for losses as the trend inevitably continues. The strategy of a professional trader Professionals wait patiently for their trading edge (trading strategy) to setup. This may not always be as black and white as just a price pattern or an EMA crossover; some professionals just know when market conditions are ripe for an entry. This could be a combination of technical and fundamental knowledge or just one or other. The point here, is that a professional knows what they are looking for and they don’t waste energy and money going after anything that isn’t exactly what they’re looking for. They’ve developed their trading edge through years of learning and trial and error, which has developed a strong gut feel to compliment chart reading and market analysis. They have confidence in their trading strategy and they don’t doubt whether it works or if they should keep using it. If you aren’t trading your strategy with 100% confidence in it, then you need to re-think that strategy and perhaps learn a new one. The crocodile and sniper metaphor I obviously can’t speak for every professional trader out there, but I do know a common thread that all our strategies have in common. We all take a sniper-like approach to our trading, which basically just means we only trade if our edge is present and we do not waste ‘bullets’ on less than obvious targets. Another good metaphor to explain the strategy and mentality of a professional trader is how a crocodile behaves. A crocodile is a finely-tuned killing machine. It has developed its hunting strategy through millions of years of evolution, to the point where it has become habit. It doesn’t hesitate. It waits patiently because it knows what it’s looking for so well, it can feel it. For more on what crocodiles can teach you about trading, check out my article on crocodile trading. Capital management and managing risk Professionals have a risk and money management plan. You, most likely do not, if you’re losing money that is. Do you understand why risk management is so important? Do you understand capital preservation? Do you understand the importance of having a proper exit strategy in place for every trade you take? Professionals do understand these things and they do have plans for them. Being aware of not trading correlated markets A professional trader is aware that trading correlated markets and not properly reducing risk, will result in taking on more risk than they are comfortable with. You must understand market correlations to a certain degree and make sure you are not doubling up a position by trading two markets simultaneously that are highly correlated, like the EURUSD and GBPUSD for example. Being aware of current market volatility, stop distance changing Professional traders have a keen awareness of market volatility. They understand that volatility changes often and they know they need to adjust their approach accordingly. For example, you would not use the same stop loss distances or profit targets in a market that has very low volatility as you would in one with high volatility. Trading plan A professional trader has built his or her trading plan on a solid foundation consisting of the three main points discussed above: Mindset, Method and Money. I refer to this as the “3m’s of trading”. Without a firm understanding, mastery and development of all three of the M’s, you will not succeed. You must build your trading foundation on those 3 m’s. If your money management is off, even if your strategy and mental state are on point, you will fail. The same goes for the other parts, if one of the three is off, you won’t make it. Professionals Continue to Learn & Study Professionals learn from others, more experienced than them. I have a good article that I wrote recently that goes through 20 quotes from trading legends, check it out to learn more. Don’t be afraid to admit you don’t know it all and take instruction and insight from others who know more than you. The hallmark of an intelligent and successful person is not that they know a lot, it’s that they admit they don’t know everything and they are constantly learning more. A poor man is one who thinks they know all there is to know and does not continue to grow their knowledge. The rich man is humble and knows that to earn his fortune he must continue to study, his thirst for knowledge and personal growth is insatiable. So, if you really want to start making money trading, start by learning how to trade, keep learning and never stop.

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    • 17.04.08 成功の手仕舞い 英語のお勉強

      A Simple Plan To Exit Your Trades Successfully By Nial Fuller in Forex Trading Strategies | 34 Comments What is the hardest decision you have to make on any given trade? If you said the trade exit, you are correct and if you’ve traded for any length of time, you already knew that was the answer. Over my years of trading the market and helping traders, I’ve gained a lot of experience and insight into how best to manage and exit trades, and today I’m going to share some of that with you. To be clear, ‘trade exits’ means managing your stop loss and profit target as the trade unfolds. This can be a very tricky topic to tackle, because it is ‘tricky’ in reality, to put it nicely, as you probably already know. So, let’s dive into what I consider to be the best way to exit your trades after they are live in order to maximize profits and minimize losses… Why are trade exits so difficult?! Mentally, people make trade exits much more complicated than they ever need to be. They give into greed, they freak out and close trades out prematurely, they don’t give them time to work out, they don’t have a plan etc. These are some of the reasons why trade exits are hard for most people. The two most important things to realize, and what many traders have a lot of trouble accepting, is the following… 1. You are NEVER going to get EVERY pip out of a trade. Meaning, you aren’t going to squeeze every last pip of profit from a trade. So, aim to take ‘chunks’ of profit, not the whole thing, because that is being greedy. Remember the old saying; “Bulls make money, bears make money, but pigs get slaughtered”, it’s so true. 2. You are going to have to take losses sometimes, that’s just part of the game. Many traders, especially beginners, get caught up in a game of trying to ‘avoid’ losses. They do this until they blow out their accounts enough times to eventually realize they are going to have to accept losses are part of the trading game and develop a plan to deal with them properly. Also, you are going to have change your idea of a ‘successful’ trade exit. If you take a loss on a trade, as long as it was your predefined 1R risk amount or potentially less, I consider that a successful trade exit. In short, a successful trade exit is one that was not an emotion-induced exit and that can mean a loss or a win. OK, so trade exits are hard, what are you going to do about it? Cry about it? Give up? I hope not! I’m here to help you, so let’s get this stuff figured out…. The ‘2R’ trade exit plan… I’ve developed what I call the ‘2R’ trade exit plan and in my opinion, if you follow it, it will help you make money over a series of trades in the market. Let’s talk about the logic and reasoning behind the 2R trade exit plan, exactly what it is and how it will help you become profitable. Here’s how it works: Now, here is where you need to pay close attention; over my 15+ years as a trader I’ve figured out that the best and most likely to be obtained risk reward ratio on average, is 2R. That is the ‘magic’ number you need to aim for, 2R. Now, understand that I am talking about using this trade exit plan with my price action trading strategies with a focus on higher time frames, this is assumed. Also, this doesn’t mean you will always take a 2R profit, it means that close to 2R or more is your goal on every trade, because anything less than about a 2R profit and it becomes increasingly difficult to make money consistently over the long-run. There may however, be times when taking slightly less than a 2R profit makes sense, if there is a very obvious price action change against your position for example, but first, I want you to learn this way of exiting trades… Here is the simple 2R trade management / exit plan broken down into 4 steps for you: 1. Determine your 1R risk on the trade. Don’t exceed this dollar amount. First, if you don’t know what I mean by R or a trades ‘R value’, you need to read this. To review quickly, the R value of a trade is the risk you put on the trade, specifically the dollar risk. So, if you are risking $100 per trade for example, 1R is $100. We can then measure a trade’s potential reward in terms of risk, this is called risk / reward or risk to reward ratio. So, a trade with a 2R potential reward has a reward / risk ratio of 2 /1 or 2R; we are earning 2 times 1R on a 2R winner. Next, you start every trade by determining what your 1R risk is. I can’t do this for you, so don’t email me asking or I will just tell you this…you need to determine the dollar amount you are comfortable with losing per trade, because remember that ANY trade CAN potentially lose, and if you don’t understand why, then read my article on the random distribution of winners and losers in trading. 2. Determine stop loss placement and position size Determine the safest and most logical stop loss placement. Remember to give the trade room to breathe and that trades often take longer to play out than we think. Don’t be greedy and put a tight stop loss on the trade just because you want to make more money. Over the long-run this will actually cause you to LOSE, not make money. Once you know your 1r dollar risk and your stop loss distance on the trade, you need to calculate the position size or number of lots you can trade to stay under your 1R risk. 3. Calculate the 2R risk / reward level Once you’ve determined your 1R risk amount and place your stop loss properly, you can find the potential risk / reward on a trade, and my risk reward calculator can help you do this. The most important number is 2R. Look to see if, based on surrounding key support and resistance levels, a 2R reward or better is realistically possible. Most of the time, it will be, unless a very obvious / key support or resistance level is close to your trade entry. At this point, you also need to decide if you will place a profit target at the 2R level so that you are automatically taken out at a 2R profit OR if you will attempt to let the trade run to a 3R profit or greater. I recommend only aiming for more than 2R in obviously trending markets. 4. Now, here is the key: Once your trade is live, you do not move your stop loss from its predefined position until or unless the trade moves past a 2R profit. At the point of obtaining a 2R profit you have two decisions to make, and this is where you must use your gut feel and personal discretion (you’ll get better at this over time). Depending on market conditions you either exit at 2R for the 2R profit, or move your stop loss to breakeven in an attempt to let your profit run into potentially 3R or more. If you anticipate a strong trend continuing or perhaps a strong breakout, these can be situations where you may chose this option. IF you hit 3R open profit, it’s time to make sure you make money on the trade and move your stop loss up to lock on that 2R profit, at that point you would be a fool to not at least make 2R on the trade. Now, why do I say move to breakeven at 2R instead of locking in 1R profit you might ask? Well, mainly because you need to give the trade room to breathe. If you are committed to letting the trade run for a while, you have to give it room; price will often come back a bit, and probably stop you out at 1R, before moving back in your favour. You will find that if you keep taking 1R profits, over time won’t make you money in the long-run. You’ve got to catch big moves in the market, and that means having the patience and discipline to leave your trades alone and give them the space they need to fluctuate and hopefully surge on in your favour. 5. Don’t get down about a loss Understand that you will have losses, and there will be times when you see a trade move up to almost 2R and then come all the way back and stop you out for a loss. You cannot get down about this. This approach is about minimizing your thinking and letting the market do the ‘work’ for you. If you get into a game of micro-managing your trades and lamenting over every missed profit, you will be losing sight of the bigger picture, get bogged down in emotion and ultimately end up like most every other trader; a loser. “But, but, but…” I can already hear the ‘buts’, the ‘But Nial…’ and I have your answers…. Yes, you will need patience to trade this way, yes you will need discipline. This is about becoming not only profitable trader, but a SKILLED TRADER, and this is how you do it. Through my 15 + years of trading and coaching, I have realized that the big money is made by waiting and taking high-quality trades and not freaking out at a loss and getting out of control. The money is made by catching big moves and making sure your winners more than double your losers. If you hit a 5R winner one month, that will pay for multiple 1R losers and still give you a profit. What you have to change is you’re thinking; you’ve got to realize that you don’t need to be in the market all the time and that less really is more in trading. When you start getting into a game of day trading or scalping / always being in the market, you are getting closer and closer to gambling and further and further from skilled, patient big-moving catching swing trading (how the ‘big boys’ do it). Remember, the trading industry is designed to get you to trade more, because that makes them more money, but you need to worry about HOW CAN YOU MAKE MONEY, not give it to your broker. If you don’t have a big account to start with, yes you will be trading smaller position sizes and not making ‘a lot’ of money even on say a 5R winner. But, isn’t making SOME money and being consistent with your approach over the course of a year a lot better than losing money, taking hundreds of trades and being frustrated, confused and mad at year’s end? You have to let go of the ‘get rich quick’ dream and take a longer-term approach. Focus on trading properly on building your account slowly over time along with a consistent track record. Show me a slow, but consistently profitable track record on a live account, even on only a $1,000 account, over the period of a year, and you will be the type of person with a high potential of attracting funding from private investors or even the attention of prop trading firms or banks. Most retail traders, both with small and big accounts, doom themselves early-on because they are focused on ‘making money’ fast, rather than on the process of trading and on slowly building their trading account over time. It takes patience and the mindset of a hardened professional to let a trade play out over 2 or 3 weeks and then possibly take a 1R loss. But, I promise you that when you make a 3R winner or even a 2R winner on your next trade, which may take 3 days or 3 weeks, you won’t care about that last 1R winner anymore, you’ll be happy that you got rewarded for having patience and you’ll feel optimistic about your trading future because you’ll know you earned the profit the right way and not through greed or luck. To get started learning my price action strategies and more about my approach to trade management, check out my professional trading course – here. PLEASE LEAVE A COMMENT BELOW – I WOULD LIKE TO HEAR YOUR FEEDBACK :) QUESTIONS ? – CONTACT ME HERE

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